Maersk built its reputation moving containers across oceans. Now the maritime giant wants to deliver packages to your doorstep. To do so, it’s using data modeling, artificial intelligence and a web of carrier partners to make it happen.

Sam Coiro, head of e-commerce commercial business development at Maersk, told FreightWaves the company’s push into parcels came from a simple observation: Maersk was already doing most of the work.

“Maersk is going across the world with its containers, picking things up, sailing across the ocean, moving them into warehouses, and then literally doing the fulfillment for big, big shippers. But that’s where Maersk stopped,” Coiro said. “Maersk said, ‘Wait a minute. If we’re already bringing it 75 percent of the way, doesn’t it make sense for us to do the last piece as well?’”’

That thinking sparked a series of acquisitions. Maersk bought Visible Supply Chain Management, a large parcel reseller with e-fulfillment centers across the country. It also picked up B2C Europe, a major multi-carrier shipping platform. The goal was to close the gap between warehouse and customer.

The result is Maersk Parcel — a single platform that gives shippers one label, one invoice, one rate card and one tracking experience. Behind the scenes, Maersk blends its own assets with partner carriers to move packages coast to coast.

“You can move packages from east to west, west to east, up and down, down to up,” Coiro said.

Predicting the Unpredictable

The hard part of parcel logistics isn’t forecasting Black Friday. Black Friday is always the Friday after Thanksgiving. The real challenge is the surprise demand spike that catches operators off guard.

“It’s easy for us to predict volatility in the network. I can tell you today that in 10 months from now we’re going to have volume spikes — Black Friday, Cyber Monday,” Coiro said. “I can tell you today that on Mother’s Day there’s going to be volume spikes. I can tell you today that on Christmas there’s going to be volume spikes.”

The curveball comes from the consumer.

“What I can’t tell you is that unpredictable consumer demand that happens — whether it’s a social influencer that’s driving some crazy widget,” he said. “When major brands run large release events, demand can surge rapidly, creating significant volume spikes for logistics providers. If you’re the supply chain provider behind the scenes having to fulfill that — well, man, you’re in a world of hurt.”

Maersk attacks this problem with data modeling. The company tracks how well each customer predicts their own volume. Over time, patterns emerge.

“Today we’re using agents to say, look, if this customer has given me 50 forecasts in the last 50 weeks and every time the customer’s off by X percent, model out potential forecast ranges to help plan resources more effectively,” Coiro said.

That buffer matters when you’re running hundreds of accounts.

“When you do that across — I mean, Maersk is not operating with one customer. We have hundreds of customers,” he said. “But if we’re able to look at that through that lens from a data perspective and predict, then I can start making my planning decisions now. How many trucks do I need? How many lanes do I need? How many employees do I need? How many sort lanes to run? I can do it today instead of last minute.”

The data also helps Maersk decide when to bring in extra workers or add a third shift on busy weekends.

The Multi-Carrier Hedge

Most parcel operators rely on a single network to move packages. Maersk took a different path. It built a multi-carrier system that mixes national giants with regional specialists.

“Our multi-carrier network allows us to flex capacity significantly. I don’t need to load and plan for that because I know I can move it,” Coiro said. “If we relied on a single asset, that would create constraints.”

At the top sit the big national players. Below them are regional carriers who cover specific parts of the country.

“Our regional carriers provide strong service options and bring deep expertise in their specific geographies,” Coiro said. “So we’ve got very strong regional carriers in the Northeast, Southeast, Central, West.”

These smaller carriers bring something the giants cannot: flexibility.

“From a regional standpoint, it’s much more flexible because they’re eager for volume,” Coiro said. “Our strategy allows us to complement our partners and deliver optimized, end-to-end solutions.”

Maersk also runs its own trucks where it makes sense. The company owns a ground freight network and uses those assets when routes line up.

Every new customer starts with an analytics deep dive. Maersk asks for six to 12 months of shipping history, then runs the numbers through its modeling systems.

“We run customer shipment data through advanced modeling to design an optimized carrier mix,” Coiro said.

The goal is finding the right blend of carriers based on three factors: what the customer sells, how fast they promised delivery and how much they want to spend.

“Using our data, using our agents, using our AI capabilities, we’re trying to figure out what is the best combination of carriers that we can light up for this customer based on the type of good that they’re selling, the promise that they made to the customer about three-day, five-day, six-day, whatever, and how much they want to spend,” he said.

When Things Go Wrong

Carriers fail. Weather hits. Trucks break down. Maersk built its system to handle these problems.

When a shipper connects to Maersk’s system, they make one call to the company’s application programming interface (API). Maersk returns a label with a pre-negotiated rate. That label carries two barcodes — one for tracking, one that identifies which carrier will move the package.

“So now I’ve already determined that this package is going to be carried by carrier one,” Coiro said.

But what happens when carrier one hits trouble?

“If a carrier experiences a service disruption, our system may reroute shipments through alternative providers where commercially and operationally feasible,” Coiro said. “You as the customer, you know what you have to do? Nothing. I do it.”

The tracking number stays the same. If the delivery date changes, Maersk updates that information so the end consumer knows their package is running a day late.

“What I then do is if I have to change the service level agreement (SLA), then I’m going to update the tracking information,” Coiro said. “So the customer is now going to know, ‘Oh, okay. They just told me that it’s not going to be here on Thursday, it’s going to be Friday.’”

Regional carriers give Maersk more flexibility in these situations than the big nationals.

“From a regional standpoint, we can, which is awesome,” Coiro said. “So if I got to get you a box in three days and if a carrier fails to perform — then our system can update routing scans automatically within supported parts of the network.”

Why This Matters for Shippers

The multi-carrier approach solves a basic problem in parcel shipping: concentration risk. Companies that depend on a single national carrier get stuck when demand spikes or service fails. They have no backup plan and no leverage.

Coiro says Maersk offers something different. By mixing its own ground freight with national and regional partners, it creates options without adding complexity for the shipper.

“When you join the Maersk family, you start to get access,” Coiro said.

That access extends beyond parcels. Shippers can tap into Maersk’s ground freight network, air services, ocean shipping and customs clearance operations.

“From a customer standpoint, especially a customer that’s going to grow, they can start small if they want from a parcel standpoint, and as they grow and they start to need these services and they need to start sourcing from different countries,” Coiro said.

Small shippers get the benefit of Maersk’s scale when negotiating with carriers. As they grow, they can add services without hunting for new providers at each stage.

“We work with customers of all sizes and aim to support them consistently as their needs scale,” Coiro said.

The model also supports cross-border commerce. Shippers can hold inventory overseas and fulfill orders directly, or bring goods into the country in bulk for faster local delivery — all while staying within customs and regulatory rules.

“Maersk supports this kind of cross-border e-commerce flow in full alignment with customs, duties, and all regulatory requirements,” Coiro said. “It’s a compliant, seamless way to connect origin-based inventory with customers without sacrificing transparency or service quality.”