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The ‘ingenious strategy’ behind most truckers’ least favorite week of the year: International Roadcheck

truck fallen over

International Roadcheck Week is hardly the sexiest topic in trucking, but it is a darn-tootin’ important one. Inspectors in the U.S. and Canada halt tens of thousands of trucks for vehicle inspections for a few days every summer or early fall. They remove thousands of trucks and drivers from the road; in 2021, 16.5% of inspected vehicles were put out of service along with 5.3% of drivers.

It’s uncommon for truck drivers to actually get their vehicles inspected at random during most of the year. To avoid International Roadcheck Week, many truckers simply don’t drive during that period of time — which, presumably, means more unsafe vehicles and drivers on the road outside of the inspection blitz. It’s a question that ate at Andrew Balthrop, a research associate at the University of Arkansas Sam M. Walton College of Business. 

Around 5% fewer one-person trucking companies are active during International Roadcheck Week. But Balthrop and his fellow researcher, Alex Scott of the University of Tennessee, found a major upside to the inspection blitz — even with all the folks who avoid it. According to their working paper published in March 2021, vehicles are safer a month before and after the inspection period. There’s a 1.8% reduction of vehicle violations, according to Balthrop and Scott’s analysis. Surprise inspection blitzes don’t result in the same uptick of compliance. 

I caught up with Balthrop about his research last week at FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain conference, and we chatted again on the phone this week about his findings on International Roadcheck Week.

Enjoy a bonus MODES and a lightly edited transcription of our phone interview: 

FREIGHTWAVES: For our readers who are not aware of what Roadcheck Week actually is, can you explain a little bit about what it and why it is important to drivers and companies?

BALTHROP: “The International Roadcheck is part of an alliance between the inspectors in Canada and the ones in Mexico and the U.S. to have a unified framework for making sure trucks are safe to operate. That should make it easier to go across borders when you have this kind of unified structure.

“In the U.S., one of these CVSA inspection blitzes is the International Roadcheck that happens for three days in the summer. Usually it’s a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And usually it’s the first week in June.

“And in it, they focus on Level One inspections, the North American Standard Inspection where they inspect the driver records, the hours of service, the licensure and I believe medical records as well. Then they inspect the truck. It’s an in-depth inspection where the inspector will actually crawl under the truck to look at various things. And these inspections, from the data that I’ve seen, take about a half an hour on average.

“During the Roadcheck Week, they’ll do about 60,000 inspections, so 20,000 a day. They’re going to pull over a lot of trucks, and this can cause a little bit of congestion at the weigh stations and the roadside inspections localities as the inspectors are doing these inspections.”

Roadcheck Week doesn’t catch all truck drivers, but it has a long-lasting benefit to safety

FREIGHTWAVES: So, can most drivers kind of expect to be pulled over? How likely is that?

BALTHROP: “There’s 1 million or 3 million trucks on the road, somewhere around there on any given day. With 20,000 inspections, most drivers still will not get inspected, but there’s going to be a higher proportion of drivers inspected. 

“You’re more likely to get inspected on these days. If you don’t have a recent inspection on your record, or if you have a bad recent inspection on your record, you’re more likely to be pulled over on these days.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Your research focused on that it’s just unusual that this inspection is announced, that it’s planned. We were talking before about how normally, if you’re trying to assure quality or compliance, you would not announce an inspection in advance. It would be more of a surprise-type situation. 

Can you walk us through why that’s so unusual, or what’s the rationale that you see behind announcing it in advance?

BALTHROP: “It is unusual, and on the surface, it doesn’t make much sense, but it turns out to be kind of an ingenious strategy. So I’ll walk through it here. 

“Over the course of a year, there’ll be 2 million inspections of 3 or 4 million trucks out there. The average rate of inspections is pretty low. It’s not uncommon for truckers to go years without having an inspection. With this low inspection intensity, the FMCSA has sort of a problem of, how does it get anybody to abide by the regulations?

“I’m a jaded economist, and I don’t worry or consider too much ethics and morality and all that kind of stuff. It comes down to incentives for drivers to follow these inspections. The incentives do guide behavior. So, how could the FMCSA incentivize drivers to follow these regulations more closely and adhere to the standards?

“They do this by announcing the blitz. This does two things. On one side, it allows everybody to prepare in advance. There’s a bunch of anecdotal evidence out there that people do prepare for these blitzes in advance. They will have their trucks inspected beforehand for any problems. They’ll time maintenance and upkeep in advance to make sure that their vehicles are in order. “They’ll be a little bit more cognizant of the driver-side regulations. One thing we notice in our study is that hours-of-service violations really drop during these extensions, because people see them coming. They don’t fudge the books in any way.”

Owner-operators can evade Roadcheck Week. Big carriers, not so much.

BALTHROP: “The issue with the announcement, on the flip side, is that it allows people to just dodge the inspection entirely. For a long time, people have talked about how owner-operators and smaller carriers time their vacations for this particular time. They could do this for a couple reasons. To avoid the hassle is a nice way to put it, but it also allows you to be noncompliant to avoid the high-intensity inspections.

“You have this balance here that on one side you get the behavior you want with people complying with regulations. That’s the behavior the FMCSA wants. But on the flip side, you get a bunch of people that are kind of outright dodging inspections.

“When you compare these two things on balance, the policy is actually pretty effective because you get a lot of people focused on maintaining their trucks and obeying the rules during that particular week. Especially with the vehicle maintenance stuff, that lasts a long time. 

“In our research, we saw that vehicle violations, a month before and up to a month afterwards, is when you still notice your vehicle violations. That trucks are kind of better maintained around these blitzes.

“The ingenious aspect of it is that the FMCSA, by concentrating their inspection resources all at one time and announcing it, they’re making it clear that they’re serious about enforcing these regulations and everybody prepares for it. For the number of inspections that are happening, you get fewer tickets than you would have otherwise expected.

“The FMCSA, they’re putting people through a little bit of a hassle, but they’re not having to write a bunch of tickets to get people to comply. They’re not really punishing a whole bunch of people because, by making this apparent that this is going to happen, people comply and the FMCSA gets what they want essentially without having to come down on carriers too hard.”

A convenient time for a vacation, indeed

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. And how does this pattern of shutting down, how does that compare for an owner-operator versus a driver for a big fleet?

BALTHROP: “If you’re a motor carrier with thousands of power units, you can’t just pack up and not do business on a particular day. They just don’t have that option. So they get inspected at a higher intensity, and you see the larger carriers kind of more focused on making sure that they’re prepared for these inspections. With so many inspections, the larger carriers are going to be inspected at higher rates. You can really damage your reputation if your equipment isn’t in order on this particular day. 

“Versus the smaller carriers, especially if you’re talking about a single-vehicle fleet, an owner-operator type, it is not that difficult to just not work for those three days. And so you see a lot about that. 

“In terms of what the roadway composition looks like, if we look at inspection data and relative to a typical day with the usual inspections, on these Roadcheck days, you have about 5% fewer owner-operators on the road than you otherwise would expect.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Wow. And when you say owner-operators, you also mean just like fleets with just —

BALTHROP: “One-vehicle fleets.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, that’s interesting.

BALTHROP: “You know, you see a little bit of effect with the smaller fleets, below six vehicles, but it basically disappears by the time you get to a hundred vehicles.

“This effect is being driven by smaller carriers staying off the road in terms of avoidance. You see this goes also how you would expect; it’s also older vehicles that stay off the road. This is correlated with carrier size. The larger carriers use newer vehicles and owner-operators tend to use some of the older vehicles. But it’s particularly the older vehicles that are off the road.

“This makes intuitive sense. Older vehicles are more costly to keep compliant. Maintenance is more costly, and they’ve been around longer so there’s time for more stuff to have broken essentially.

How a truck driver gets stopped for inspection

FREIGHTWAVES: Can you explain a little bit more, the idea of having this inspection history and why it would benefit a larger or small carrier?

BALTHROP: “Getting flagged for inspection is sort of random, but not totally. If somebody notices something obviously wrong with your truck, that’s ground for a more in-depth inspection. Or if you get pulled over for some other reason, this can be grounds for inspection of some type. 

“But there’s also the inspection selection service. The computer program that is random, that it randomly flags people in for inspection, but it’s based on your inspection history.

“So if your firm hasn’t been inspected recently, or if your carrier doesn’t have a very dense inspection history, you’ll be more likely to trigger that system to pull you in and have you inspected. If you have a dense inspection history, you’re less likely to get inspected.”

FREIGHTWAVES: So how do you get pulled over for inspection? As a person who only drives a passenger car, my main interaction with being pulled over is, I’m driving down the freeway or wherever, and I get stopped by the police. How does it work for a truck driver? How does getting pulled over or inspected work in that way?

BALTHROP: “The law is that you cannot pass a weigh station without pulling in and getting weighed. At that point they may flag you to be inspected. Now, in the past decade or two, there’s been a bunch of electronic devices that are installed in cabs. You may have heard of PrePass or Drivewise. This allows you to pass weigh stations. 

“I don’t have data on how many trucks have the in-cab devices. But from a trucking perspective, they’re so convenient that you don’t have to stop every time you cross a state line. I think the vast, overwhelming majority of trucks have some sort of one of these electronic devices. The DOT inspectors at these roadside inspection points have a dial they can twist essentially about how many people they want to inspect. 

“So during the roadcheck inspection week, they’ll crank that dial all the way up and pull everybody over. And if they get too backed up, they might crank it back down a little bit and so on.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. It reminds me of a highly sophisticated E‑ZPass.

A $10 million-plus expense to trucking companies every year … but it’s worth it if just one fatal crash is avoided

FREIGHTWAVES: Zooming out, when we hear about large truck crashes, something like a vehicle maintenance issue is not really the most sexy explanation. But just looking at the FMCSA data, in 29% of all truck crashes, a major factor is brake problems. So it seems like a lot of the truck crashes on the road are caused by vehicle maintenance, versus something like the driver using illegal drugs or some other sort of more dramatic explanation. Can you speak a little bit to why this sort of vehicle maintenance is important for safety in preventing large crashes?

BALTHROP: “We did a little bit of a back-of-the-envelope cost benefit analysis of this. Let me try and make sure I remember it clearly, but we have it in the paper that the cost of this on one side is that you have the compliance costs the firms are undertaking, and then you have to add to that the delay costs from doing this, and then the cost of the inspection itself, having to pay federal inspectors to do this.

“On the benefit side, it reduces crashes. So when we add up, just looking at the cost of what an inspection is, we don’t have a good idea of how to measure the compliance cost. It’d be fun to measure the delay cost, but I don’t have good enough price data on that to get at that cost. 

“But if you look at what the cost of an inspection is, it is something like $100 or $120 is what you would pay to have one of these inspections done privately. A lot of people do this in the run-up to inspections, and have it done privately so that you can fix whatever the problems are and be sure that you would pass the FMCSA inspection.

“With that $120 figure, if you aggregate that up to 60,000 inspections or whatever, and you take that in comparison, I’m going to give you a bad figure here, it’s on the order of $10 million. That is about the value of a statistical human life. Looking at this economically, it’s worthwhile if it saves one human life. If you identify just one faulty brake system that would’ve resulted in an accident, you’re getting some value out of the program. 

“When you add those other costs in there, we’re going to need to save a couple of lives, but in terms of cost benefit analysis with this kind of stuff, we’re usually looking at orders of magnitude differences in cost and benefits to say something for sure. 

“If you can save just a couple lives, this program will pay for itself.”

Time to start inspecting in the winter

FREIGHTWAVES: Then one last question: Is there any rationale for this program happening in the summer? 

BALTHROP: “I think part of it is that for the inspectors this gets much harder and much more miserable to do in winter conditions.”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense.

BALTHROP: “Inspectors are less productive. One of the things that we talk about in the paper, that they have in addition to the International Roadcheck, is that they have Brake Week where they focus a little bit more on brake inspections. You have Operation Safe Driver a little bit later on in the summer, usually in September, where it’s a little bit more focused on passenger vehicles and how they drive around these trucks.

“But there’s not one in the winter time. There’s an unannounced brake check that usually happens in May, a surprise inspection that’s just one day. But you’re right in pointing out that it might be worthwhile having one of these in the wintertime. You have this periodic high-intensity inspection that kind of incentivizes everybody to be compliant through the summer. 

“But there’s nothing in the winter, so that’s an area. But if I was managing the FMCSA, that would be one of the first questions I ask, ‘Why don’t we have one of these in the wintertime?’”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense. Maybe they can do it in the South or something. Maybe a Miami January inspection … 

That’s it for this special bonus MODES. Subscribe here if you’re not already receiving MODES in your inbox every Thursday. Email the reporter at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com with your own tales on International Roadcheck Week or any other trucking topics. 

Why the Northeast is quietly running out of diesel

The nozzle of a diesel fuel pump is inserted into the tank of a commercial truck as its driver looks on the bankground.

The East Coast of the U.S. is reporting its lowest seasonal diesel inventory on record. And some trucking companies appear spooked.

The East Coast typically stores around 62 million barrels of diesel during the month of May, according to Department of Energy data. But as of last Friday, that region of the U.S. is reporting under 52 million barrels. 

The sharp increase of diesel prices has been a major stressor in America’s $800 billion trucking industry since the beginning of 2022. According to DOE figures, the price per gallon of diesel has reached record highs — a whopping $5.62 per gallon. It’s even higher on the East Coast at $5.90, up 63% from the beginning of this year. 

When relief is coming isn’t yet clear, and experts say higher prices are the only way to attract more diesel into the Northeast.

“I wish I had some good news for the Northeast, but it’s bedlam,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told FreightWaves. 

2022 has seen record-setting diesel prices. (SONAR)

Everyday Americans don’t fill up their cars with diesel, but the fuel powers our nation’s agriculture, industrial and transportation networks. More expensive diesel means the price of everything is liable to increase. Trucks, trains, barges and the like consumed about 122 million gallons of diesel per day in 2020. 

Patrick DeHaan, a vice president of communications at fuel price site GasBuddy, reported that retail truck stops are hauling fuel from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, calling it “extraordinary.” We’ve also seen anecdotal reports from truck drivers posting company memos:

Pilot Flying J and Love’s, two of America’s largest truck stops, told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that they were not planning to restrict diesel purchases, but were monitoring low diesel inventory.

Not unlike every other supply chain crunch we’ve seen in the past few years, the cause of the Northeast’s diesel shortage is multifaceted. A yearslong degradation of refineries is rubbing against the Gulf Coast preferring to ship its oil to Europe and Latin America.

Here’s a breakdown:

1. The East Coast has lost half of its refineries. 

As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote on May 4 (emphasis ours): 

In the past 15 years, the number of refineries on the U.S. East Coast has halved to just seven. The closures have reduced the region’s oil processing capacity to just 818,000 barrels per day, down from 1.64 million barrels per day in 2009. Regional oil demand, however, is stronger.

Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street and writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves that refining is a “thankless industry,” with intense regulations that have limited the opening of new refineries. The Great Recession of 2008 led to several East Coast refineries shuttering, but there have been more recent shutdowns too. One major Philadelphia refinery shuttered in 2019 after a giant fire (and it already had declared bankruptcy), and another refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020.

2. It’s a financial risk to bring diesel to the Northeast.

The Northeast has increasingly relied on diesel from the Gulf region. Much of that diesel travels to the Northeast through the famous and much-adored Colonial Pipeline. You may remember the 5,500-mile pipeline from last year, when a ransomware attack shuttered it for nearly a week!  

It takes 18 days for oil to travel on the Colonial Pipeline from its source in Houston to New York City (or, more specifically, Linden, New Jersey), Kloza said.

That’s a long enough time to prioritize Colonial pipelines financially risky for traders — or, as Kloza said, “incredibly dangerous” — thanks to a concept called “backwardation.”

Backwardation refers to the market condition in which the spot price of a commodity like diesel is higher than its futures price. It’s only gotten stronger over time in the diesel market, Kloza said. So, a company could send off a shipment of diesel and find that it dropped by $1 per gallon in the time the diesel traveled from the Gulf Coast to New York — er, New Jersey. That could mean hundreds of thousands or more in lost profits, so traders often avoid such a fate.

“We’re not in an era where there are any U.S. refiners or big U.S. oil companies who would ‘take one for the team’ and bring cargo in where it’s needed,” Kloza said. 

The desperation is showing in New England and the mid-Atlantic regions. New England diesel retail prices are up 75% from the beginning of 2022, per DOE data. In the mid-Atlantic, diesel is up 67%. 

It’s not worth the risk, even amid ultra-high prices. As FreightWaves’ Kingston reported last week, the spread between a gallon of diesel in the Gulf Coast and its New York harbor price is usually a few cents. Last week, that swung up to 66 cents.

But that uptick still isn’t justifying moving oil to the Northeast — particularly when traders can make so much more money selling diesel abroad. 

3. Of course, we can blame COVID and the crisis in Ukraine. 

The catalyst for this diesel shortage, of course, is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine — particularly Europe’s desperation for diesel after weaning off Russian molecules. 

As CNBC reported in March, Europe is a net importer of diesel. Europe consumed some 6.8 million barrels of diesel each day in 2019; Russia exported some 600,000 barrels per day of that. Today, Europe has only eliminated one-third of its Russian diesel, so prices are expected to continue to climb amid that transition. Latin America, too, has been clammoring for U.S. diesel.

The Gulf Coast has been happy to provide such diesel, amid “insane” prices for diesel abroad, said Johnston. Waterborne exports of diesel from the U.S. Gulf Coast hit record highs last month, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. (The records only date back to 2016.)

Naturally, COVID is also to blame for the Northeast’s run on diesel. Those refineries still retained on the East Coast scaled back during the pandemic due to staffing issues. It takes six months to a year to reignite refineries that were previously shuttered, Kloza said.

The ‘everything shortage’ endures

It’s been a tale as old as, well, last year. An industry is quietly hampered by supply issues for years, or even decades, and COVID pulls back the curtains on its unsteady foundation. It’s particularly jarring for commodities we never thought about before, like shipping containers or pallets, but that quietly underpinned our livelihood all along. 

Recall the Great Lumber Shortage of 2020? Big Lumber had unusually low stockpiles of wood by the summer of 2020, thanks to a vicious 2019 in the lumber industry shuttering sawmills and the spring of 2020 sparking staffing issues. (There was also a nasty beetle infestation.) Those in lumber expected the pandemic to slow the economy, not ignite online shopping, construction and housing mania. It meant lumber went from around $350 per thousand board feet pre-pandemic to a crushing $1,515 by the spring of 2021. The lumber price roller coaster persists today.  

In diesel, there’s no beetle infestation, but there are plenty of other headaches. It all means higher fuel prices on the East Coast, particularly the Northeast, to lure molecules from the Gulf Coast. And, down the line, probably more expensive stuff for you. 

Do you work in the trucking industry? Do you want to say that you hate or love MODES? Are you simply wanting to chitchat? Email the author at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com, and don’t forget to subscribe to MODES.

Updated on May 13 with the latest comments from truck stops.

Exclusive: Central Freight Lines to shut down after 96 years

Nearly, 2,100 employees will be laid off right before Christmas. Central Freight Lines is the largest trucking company to close since Celadon ceased operations in 2019.

Waco, Texas-based Central Freight Lines has notified drivers, employees and customers that the less-than-truckload carrier plans to wind down operations on Monday after 96 years, the company’s president told FreightWaves on Saturday.

“It’s just horrible,” said CFL President Bruce Kalem.

A source close to CFL told FreightWaves that CFL had “too much debt and too many unpaid bills” to continue operating, despite exploring all available options to keep its doors open.

Kalem agreed.

“Years of operating losses and struggles for many years sapped our liquidity, and we had no other place to go at this point,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “Nobody is going to make money on this closing, nobody.” 

Central Freight will cease picking up new shipments effective Monday and expects to deliver substantially all freight in its system by Dec. 20, according to a company statement.

A source familiar with the company said he is unsure whether CFL will file Chapter 7 or “liquidate outside of bankruptcy,” but that the LTL carrier has no plans to reorganize.

The company reshuffled its executive team nearly a year ago in an effort to stay afloat, including adding the company’s owner, Jerry Moyes, as CFL’s interim president and chief executive officer. Moyes remained CEO after Kalem was elevated to president in July.

“I think it was surprising that there wasn’t a buyer for the entire company, but buyers were interested in certain pieces but not in the whole thing,” the source, who didn’t want to be identified, told FreightWaves. “Part of it could have been that just the network was so expansive that there was too much overlap with some of the buyers that they didn’t need locations or employees in the places where they already had strong operations.”

Third-party logistics provider GlobalTranz notified its customers that it had removed CFL as “a blanket and CSP carrier option immediately, to prevent any new bookings,” multiple sources told FreightWaves on Saturday.

CFL, which has over 2,100 employees, including 1,325 drivers, and 1,600 power units, is in discussions with “key customers and vendors and expects sufficient liquidity to complete deliveries over the next week in an orderly manner,” a CFL spokesperson said. Approximately 820 employees are based at the company headquarters in Waco.

Despite diligent efforts, CFL “was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization,” another source familiar with the company told FreightWaves.

Kalem said the company had 65 terminals prior to its decision to shutter operations. 

FreightWaves received a tip from a source nearly two weeks ago that CFL wasn’t renewing its East Coast terminal leases but was unable to confirm the information with CFL executives. 

Another source told FreightWaves that some of the LTL carrier’s West Coast terminals had been sold recently, but that no reason was given for the transactions.

At that time, Kalem said the company was “working to find alternatives” and couldn’t speak because of nondisclosure agreements. He said executives at CFL, including Moyes, were trying to do everything to “save the company.”

“Jerry [Moyes] pumped a lot of money into the company, but it just wasn’t enough,” Kalem said.

Kalem said he’s aware that a large carrier is interested in hiring many of CFL’s drivers but isn’t able to name names at this point. 

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment,” the company said in a statement. “Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area.”

As of late Saturday night, Kalem said fuel cards are working and drivers will be paid for freight they’ve hauled for the LTL carrier until all freight is delivered by the Dec. 20 target date.

“I’m going to work feverishly with the time I have left to get these good people jobs — I owe it to them,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “We are going to pay our drivers — that’s why we had to close it like we’re doing now. We are going to deliver all of the freight that’s in our system by next week, and we believe we can do that.”

During the outset of the pandemic, Central Freight Lines was one of four trucking-related companies that received the maximum award of $10 million through the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). This occurred around the time that CFL drivers and employees were forced to take pay cuts, a move that didn’t go over well with drivers.

“It all went to payroll,” Kalem said about the PPP funds. “Yes, our employees and drivers did take a pay cut over the past few years, and we gave most of it back, even raised pay over the past several months, but it just wasn’t enough to attract drivers.”

FreightWaves staffers Todd Maiden, Timothy Dooner and JP Hampstead contributed to this report.

Watch: Central Freight Lines’ impact on the LTL market

FreightWaves CEO and founder Craig Fuller reacts to the Central Freight Lines news:

“With Central struggling for many years and unable to reach profitability, it makes sense that they would want to liquidate while equipment and real estate are fetching record prices.”

Central Freight Lines statement

Here is the statement given by Central Freight Lines to FreightWaves late Saturday after reports surfaced of its impending closure:

“We make this announcement with a heavy heart and extreme regret that the Company cannot continue after nearly 100 years in operation. We would like to thank our outstanding workforce for persevering and for professionally completing the wind-down while supporting each other. Additionally, we thank our customers, vendors, equipment providers, and other stakeholders for their loyalty and support.

“The Company explored all available options to keep operations going. However, operating losses sapped all remaining sources of liquidity, and the Company’s liabilities far exceed its assets, all of which are subject to liens in favor of multiple creditors. Despite diligent efforts, the Company was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business, or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization. Given its limited remaining resources, the Company concluded that the best alternative was a safe and orderly wind-down. As we complete the wind-down process, our primary goal will be to offer the smoothest possible transition for all stakeholders while maximizing the amount available to apply toward the Company’s obligations.

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment. Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area. Discussions are ongoing and no purchase of assets or offer of employment is guaranteed.”

Brief history of Central Freight Lines

1925Founded in Waco, Texas, by Woody Callan Sr.
1927Institutes regular routes in Texas between Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin.
1938Dallas facility opens as world’s largest freight facility.
1991Receives 48-state interstate operating authority, expands into Oklahoma.
1993Joins Roadway Regional Group and begins service in Louisiana.
1994Expands into Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Mississippi.
1995Consolidation of Central, Coles, Spartan and Viking Freight Systems into Viking Freight Inc. is announced. Central’s Waco corporate HQ starts closure.
1996Becomes the Southwestern Division of Viking Freight Inc.
1997Investment group led by senior Central management purchases assets of former CFL from Viking Freight and reopens as a new Central Freight Lines.
1999Expands into California and Nevada.
2009CFL Network provides service to Idaho, Utah, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
2013Acquires Circle Delivery of Tennessee.
2014Acquires DTI, a Georgia LTL carrier.
2017Acquires Wilson; new division created with an increase of 80 terminals.
2020Wins Carrier of the Year from GlobalTranz.
Acquires Volunteer Express Inc. of Dresden, Tennessee.
Source: Central Freight Lines

Warehouse cramming is about to begin — Freightonomics

nVision Global, is a leading Global Freight Audit, Supply Chain Management Services company offering enterprise-wide supply chain solutions. With over 4,000 global business “Partners”, nVision Global not only provides prompt, accurate Freight Audit Solutions, but also providing industry-leading Supply Chain Information Management solutions and services necessary to help its clients maximize efficiencies within their supply chain. To learn more, visit www.nvisionglobal.com

Warehouse space is at a premium right now and with peak season right around the corner, shippers are starting to scramble for space. 

Zach Strickland and Anthony Smith look into what shippers are doing to prepare for the end-of-year crunch. They welcome Zac Rogers from Colorado State University to the show to talk through the industry tightness. 

The three also talk about the latest Logistics Managers Index results and what they mean for the fourth quarter of 2021. 

You can find more Freightonomics episodes and recaps for all our live podcasts here.

Seasonality pushing rejections and rates higher ahead of the Fourth

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 75 (Carriers)

Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 70 (Carriers) 

Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 70 (Carriers)

The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for rates between shippers and carriers. 

The Pricing Power Index is based on the following indicators:

Load volumes: Absolute levels positive for carriers, momentum neutral

The Outbound Tender Volume Index at 15,980 is nominally higher now than basically at any point in the past 12 months with the exception of the week prior to Thanksgiving/Black Friday last year. OTVI captures all electronic tenders, including rejected ones, so when accounting for the rejection rate, we can get an even more accurate look at volumes. 

OTVI rose through the back half of May into the national holiday and has risen even further since. Throughout the back half of May and into the middle of June, tender rejections declined substantially. Meaning, current volume throughput is actually understated when comparing OTVI now to OTVI in November 2020. After adjusting for rejected tenders, the accepted outbound tender volume index is just 2.2% below the 2020 peak in November. At that time, OTVI surged towards 17,000, but the rejection rate moved in-kind towards its natural ceiling of 28%. So, the total accepted freight tenders in mid-June is comparable to the peakiest of peak seasons in 2020. Incredible. 

However, since the middle of June, tender rejections have begun increasing again heading into Independence Day, a time when many drivers spend time off the road with their families. The move higher in OTVI this week has been driven primarily by higher rejection rates, rather than higher freight demand. 

Over the past month, the drivers of freight volumes have continued to be imports and from just about every port. The west coast continues to provide seemingly non-stop container ships, while Houston, New Orleans, Miami and Savannah are seeing very strong throughput as well. 

It is van volumes that are driving freight markets higher right now. The Reefer Outbound Tender Volume index has tumbled 25% since its all-time high in the weeks after the polar vortex in February. Since Memorial Day, ROTVI has fallen another 10.5%. This is likely a factor of declining grocery demand, but I would expect the trend to reverse course in the near future as summer festivities accelerate. 

Dry van volumes pushed higher in the back half of May and into June while reefer volumes have declined significantly. 

SONAR: VOTVI.USA (Blue); ROTVI.USA (Green)

The congestion at our nation’s ports has spread from Los Angeles and Long Beach to Oakland, California. The California coastline is a parking lot of container ships, most of which are full to the brim with imports, awaiting berth. As detailed in the economic section, there are some signs that the reversion is underway with Americans paring back spending on pandemic superstar categories in favor of airlines, lodging and entertainment. But spending remains strong despite the moderation, and low inventory levels offset much of the decline that will occur from slowing demand. Real inventories are 3% higher now than pre-pandemic, but real sales growth is far outpacing inventory growth, leading to the lowest inventory-to-sales ratio in decades. 

On the manufacturing side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded in May after declining in April. We’ve been in expansionary territory for 12 consecutive months. New orders, production, imports/exports and employment are all growing. The major issues should come as no surprise: Deliveries are slowing, backlogs are growing and inventories are too low. 

In all, there are many, many catalysts to keep freight demand strong for the foreseeable future. Americans are traveling and spending on services at a high clip, but the high savings rate is enabling it to occur without a massive detriment to goods spending. 

SONAR: OTVI.USA (2021 – Blue; 2020 – Green; 2019 – Orange; 2018 –  Purple)

Tender rejections: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

After declining steadily from mid-March to mid-May, the Outbound Tender Reject Index has reversed course heading into Independence Day. This is typical for a national holiday as carriers selectively choose loads to bring drivers closer to home. OTRI now sits above 25% for the first time in June. 

One of our newest indices in SONAR gives us the ability to compare markets on as close to an apples-to-apples basis as possible. FreightWaves’ Carrier Trend Market Score indices are divided into two perspectives – shipper/broker and carrier. The scores are positioned on a scale from 1-100 and have values measuring van and refrigerated (reefer) capacity. The higher values represent more favorable trends for whichever perspective. For instance, a value near the high-end of the range would suggest very favorable conditions for carriers in our carrier capacity trend score index. 

For the past several weeks, capacity disparities have been driven by import volumes. The markets with the tightest carrier capacity coincide with the nation’s busiest ports. Ontario, California, Savannah, Georgia, and Atlanta all have carrier capacity trend market scores of 100. 

SONAR: Capacity Trend Market Score (Carriers – VAN)

By mode. Reefer rejection rates tumbled from it’s all-time high in March to under 35% in mid-June before popping higher over the past two weeks. Reefer rejections are still quite high from a historical standpoint at 38%, but are significantly lower than just three months ago when reefer carriers were rejecting half of all electronically tendered loads. 

SONAR: VOTRI.USA (Blue); ROTRI.USA (Orange)

Dry van tenders make up the majority of all tenders, so the van rejection rate mirrors the aggregate index closely. Van rejections have surged from ~23% to ~26% over the past two weeks. 

Yes, one-in-four loads being rejected is not ideal, but it’s better than 30%. I am unaware of any meaningful signals that capacity is being added at a rate that would change my outlook. With so many catalysts for demand, and many constraints on drivers including the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse, driver training school closures and continued government unemployment benefits, the outlook is tight throughout this year and into 2022. That’s not to say we won’t see improvement as consumers revert to pre-pandemic spending habits and drivers enter or reenter the market. But I’m not expecting any quick reversal of this environment; there are simply too many catalysts driving volume and suppressing capacity. 

SONAR: OTRI.USA (2020/21 – Blue; 2020 – Green; 2019 – Orange)

Freight rates: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

Throughout June, spot rates have moderated while contract rates have pushed higher. The Truckstop.com dry van rate per mile (incl. fuel) has fallen from $3.21 to $3.11 since the beginning of June, while FreightWaves van contract rates have risen from $2.50 to $2.59/mile, exclusive of fuel. 

I still believe the Truckstop.com dry van national average will not retest the post-vortex surge pricing that brought spot rates up to an all-time high of $3.30. But, there aren’t many catalysts to bring spot rates down anytime soon either. Demand is unwavering with continued strong consumer goods demand, humming industrial recovery and a potentially cooling, yet still sizzling, hot housing market. And carriers can’t fill enough trucks to keep up with demand. 

Prior to the seasonal movements we’re seeing in tender rejections, routing guides generally had been improving through Q2. We should continue to see a convergence between spot and contract rates, but spot rates will remain historically very elevated throughout the summer as demand simply outstrips capacity. 

SONAR: TSTOPVRPM.USA (Blue); VCRPM1.USA (Green)  

Economic stats: Momentum and absolute level neutral

Several economic releases this week are worth noting.

Weekly jobless claims were released Thursday and give us one of the best close-to-real-time indicators of the overall economy.  This week, the data was again very promising as the labor market continues on a bumpy but trajectorially stable recovery path. 

First-time filings totaled 411,000 for the week ended June 19, a slight decrease from the previous total of 418,000 but worse than the 380,000 Dow Jones estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims have held above 400,000 for consecutive weeks after falling to a pandemic low of 374,000 three weeks ago. As things stand, the current level of initial claims is about double where it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The good news on the jobs front is that continuing claims are on the decline, falling to 3.39 million, a drop of 144,000. That number runs a week behind the headline claims total.

Initial jobless claims (weekly in May 2020-May 2021)

At the time of writing, the newest weekly data for the week ending May 29 had not been updated in SONAR. This week, claims fell from 405,000 to 385,000. 

SONAR: IJC.USA

Consumer. Turning to consumer spending, as measured by Bank of America weekly card (both debit and credit) spending data, total card spending (TCS) in the latest week accelerated to 22% over 2019. This is the first time in June that TCS has topped 20% over 2019, but spending has been running up 16-19% consistently on a two-year comp for months. For contect, the average pre-pandemic two-year growth rate was about 8% (from 2012 to 2019). 

The Bank of America team highlighted service spending in the nation’s two largest state economies, California and New York, which are now fully reopened. Spending at restaurants is now well above 2019 in both states, and the team believes there is more capacity for spending to accelerate in the states that were slower to reopen given pent-up demand. 

There was also a notable acceleration in spending on clothing this week, according to Bank of America. It could be a reversal from some softening in the early weeks of June, or an indication of people refreshing wardrobes ahead of a return to work, more travel and vacations. One tepid statement for freight markets from this week;s report: Leisure spending is on the rise and durable goods spending is flatlining.  

FreightWaves’ Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index, both a measure of relative demand and capacity, moves directionally with the ISM PMI. 

SONAR: ISM.PMI (Blue); FOTRI.USA (Green) 

Manufacturing. Over the past two weeks, regional manufacturing surveys have reported generally positive readings amid logistical challenges. The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index declined 6.9 points to 17.4 in June, retreating from strong readings the past two months. The Empire State Index is a diffusion index with a baseline of zero; any reading above zero indicates improving or expansionary conditions. 

Delivery times lengthened to a new record during the month, new orders and shipments fell, and inventories entered negative territory. The supply chain and transportation challenges are as visible upstream as downstream, but overall the manufacturing sector is handling. Growth continued throughout the second quarter in both the Empire State and Philly Fed indices. 

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index edged lower to a still robust 30.7 in June from 31.5 in the prior month. Unlike NY, the pace of shipments growth accelerated in the Philly region during June. The employment subcomponent rose to a very healthy 30.7 from 19.3 last month, the regional bank said. 

Record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy, but demand remains strong. 

For more information on the FreightWaves Freight Intel Group, please contact Kevin Hill at khill@www.freightwaves.com or Andrew Cox at acox@www.freightwaves.com.

Check out the newest episodes of our podcast, Great Quarter, Guys, here.

Project44 acquires ClearMetal to strengthen predictive tools

Project44, a leader in real-time visibility of the global supply chain, announced on Thursday it has acquired ClearMetal, a San Francisco-based supply chain planning software company that focuses on international freight visibility, predictive planning and overall customer experience. The terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.

ClearMetal, founded by top software engineers and data scientists from Stanford, Google and other Silicon Valley elites, has created a “continuous delivery experience” that leverages proprietary machine learning algorithms that can forecast supply chain disruptions. 

In an interview, Jason Duboe, chief growth officer at project44, explained that bringing in ClearMetal’s elite team is essential for the company’s future predictive solutions.

“Their team construct is fundamentally different. When you look at their data science, machine learning and computer science background, they are best in class,” he said. “Applying the team to solve really interesting challenges, starting with highly predictive ETA and deeper exception management to create more predictive analytics is really a key component here.”

Project44 recently acquired Ocean Insights to gain global supply chain vessel visibility and has announced it has expanded its truckload tracking services within Asia. Bringing on this new team of engineers will allow the company to capitalize on strong predictive tools, strengthening the supply chain of its customers.

“We’re going to be expanding deeper into Asia, and from a port perspective, getting data much earlier than competitors,” explained Duboe. “Our freight forwarder integrations will give us much deeper visibility from an end-to-end perspective in these regions.”

Along with the acquired skills the ClearMetal team will bring to project44, it brings a large book of customers, including large CPGs, retailers, manufacturers, distributors and chemical companies. These advanced use cases will strengthen the predictive planning tools, and project44 continues to expand into different customer markets.

“What we gain from ClearMetal is a holistic platform for anybody that joins the platform in the future,” said Duboe. “They have large customers with incredibly demanding and advanced use cases. So when it comes to order and inventory, functionality, supplier onboarding, and moving upstream into those processes, we can capture exceptions earlier on.”

Click here for more articles by Grace Sharkey.

Related Articles:

Project44 expands real-time visibility into China

Project44 reels in Ocean Insights in ‘largest acquisition in visibility space’

‘Project44’s vision has always been global’

Saia awaits payoff on $2B investment

A red Saia daycab pulling a Saia trailer on a highway

Less-than-truckload carrier Saia said it sees more tailwinds than headwinds facing its business in the new year. The company has opened 39 terminals in the past three years, making it a true national carrier. However, costs associated with ramping the new locations were again an overhang on quarterly results.

The Johns Creek, Georgia-based company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.77 on Tuesday before the market opened. The result was 38% lower year over year and 14 cents below the consensus estimate. The company flagged $4.7 million in adverse claims developments during the period. Excluding the costs, EPS would have been in line with expectations at $1.91.

Table: Saia’s key performance indicators

An expanded network is allowing Saia to better compete for freight from national shippers, which will allow it to build density over time. However, carrying the additional costs has pushed the company’s margins to multiyear lows in recent quarters, a trend that it expects to reverse starting this year.  

Saia’s (NASDAQ: SAIA) 91.9% fourth-quarter operating ratio (8.1% operating margin) was 480 basis points worse y/y and 430 bps worse than the third quarter. Management’s guidance called for 300 to 400 bps of sequential deterioration. The incremental insurance costs were a 60-bp drag.

The fourth quarter could prove to be the nadir even though winter storms have negatively impacted the first quarter—the seasonally weakest of the year.

Management said on a Tuesday call that the company normally records 30 to 50 bps of sequential OR deterioration from the fourth to first quarter. It expects to outperform that change rate this year, potentially logging sequential improvement, given the diminished starting point. The guide could represent y/y improvement from the 91.1% OR posted in the 2025 first quarter. (Saia’s outlook was provided using a fourth-quarter adjusted OR of 91.3%, which excludes the insurance hit.)

The company is also calling for full-year margin improvement of 100 to 200 bps in 2026, with the high end of the range tethered to modest volume and yield improvements. However, management still expects y/y margin improvement, even if the broader economy remains soft.

“A $2 billion capital investment, like what we’ve deployed in this business, the returns that we are expecting are sub-80 OR,” said Fritz Holzgrefe, Saia president and CEO, on the call.

He said some mature portions of the network currently operate at ORs in the upper-70s.

The company’s weight per shipment comps ease in the back half of the year. It now has 20% to 25% excess door capacity and should be able to take share when the market turns. Industry consensus suggests many regional carriers are likely already capacity constrained, unlike national carriers that have expanded their networks.

Management also expects to price freight ahead of cost inflation following the investments, which have meaningfully raised its service offering. Contractual rate increases averaged 4.9% in the fourth quarter (plus-6.6% in January). Customer retention is running above 90% following a 5.9% general rate increase in October. The carrier normally sees retention between 80% and 85% following GRIs.

SONAR: Longhaul LTL Monthly Cost per Hundredweight, Class 125+ Index. Less-than-truckload monthly indices are based on the median cost per hundredweight for four National Motor Freight Classification groupings and five different mileage bands. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Q4 by the numbers

Saia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $790 million, which was $1 million higher y/y and $14 million better than the consensus estimate. On a per-day basis, revenue was flat as a 1.5% decline in tonnage was offset by a 1.6% increase in revenue per hundredweight, or yield. Yield was 0.5% higher, excluding fuel surcharges.

The quarter had a tough tonnage comparison to the year-ago period (plus-8.3% y/y). By month, tonnage was down 3.3% y/y in October, up 1.8% in November and down 2.2% in December. Tonnage increased on a two-year-stacked comparison throughout the quarter, from plus-4% in October to plus-11% in December.

Tonnage was 7% lower y/y in January, but that was against a plus-13.8% comp from January 2025. Also, inclement weather negatively impacted the network during the month. Shipments were down 2.1% y/y in January, but management said they would have likely been up without the storms.

Yield had an easier comparison in the period (negative-2.3% in the 2024 fourth quarter). A 1% decline in weight per shipment was a modest tailwind for the yield metric. Revenue per shipment was down 0.5% in the quarter, excluding fuel surcharges.

The 91.9% OR (91.3% adjusted) occurred as growth in cost per shipment exceeded growth in revenue per shipment by 560 bps.

Salaries, wages and benefits expenses (as a percentage of revenue) were 280 bps higher y/y. The company implemented a 3% wage and benefits increase in October. Headcount was 5.1% lower y/y (6.4% lower excluding linehaul drivers). Group health insurance cost increases represented more than 30% of the cost-per-shipment increase.

Depreciation and amortization expenses were 110 bps higher. The new terminals operated profitably in 2025.

Net capex is expected to step down from $544 million in 2025 ($1.05 billion in 2024) to $350 million to $400 million in 2026.

Shares of SAIA were off 5.1% at 3:05 p.m. EST on Tuesday compared to the S&P 500, which was off 0.1%. The stock is up 55% since the week before Thanksgiving when trucking stocks began moving higher along with truckload spot rates.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:

Why Credit Is Quietly Deciding Who Survives in Trucking

For most owner-operators and small carriers, the conversation about survival usually starts with rates. Fuel prices come next. Then brokers. Then regulations. But during a recent episode of The Long Haul, one reality kept surfacing over and over again: many carriers don’t fail because they can’t run freight — they fail because they never fully understood how the financial system around trucking actually works.

That system includes credit. Not as a bailout. Not as a shortcut. But as a tool that, when misunderstood, quietly limits options — and when understood, creates them.

As I said early in the conversation, I’ve watched carriers “run freight nonstop, seem to do everything right, and still feel like they’re one breakdown or one slow pay away from complete disaster.” Too often, when that stress hits, the industry defaults to reactive decisions. What we don’t talk about enough is how credit and cash flow work together behind the scenes — shaping those decisions long before a crisis ever shows up.

That’s why I sat down with Gerri Detweiler, a credit educator with decades of experience working with small businesses across industries, including trucking. She isn’t a trucker — and that matters — because her outside perspective helps reveal patterns many inside the industry normalize without questioning.

Why Trucking Is Financially Vulnerable by Design

One of the first things Gerri pointed out is that trucking consistently shows up as one of the industries most drawn to business credit tools. Not because truckers are reckless, but because the structure of the industry creates pressure.

Margins are thin. Pay cycles are slow. Cash outflows happen immediately — fuel, maintenance, insurance — while inflows lag behind. As Gerri explained, “If you’re waiting to get paid, you’re turning to things like factoring or fuel cards, and you aren’t always sure if you’re getting a good deal.” Credit becomes foundational to those choices, whether carriers realize it or not.

What makes trucking uniquely vulnerable is the combination of short-term urgency and long-term cost exposure. You need money now to keep moving, but the biggest expenses — engines, aftertreatment, tires — don’t show up politely. They arrive all at once. That forces decisions under pressure.

And pressure is where bad credit habits are born.

Why So Many Carriers See Credit as the Enemy

One of the most important parts of the conversation centered on mindset. Many small carriers equate credit with debt — and debt with failure. Gerri was careful to acknowledge where that fear comes from.

“We’ve been trained that debt is bad,” she said. “If you’ve seen family members struggle with credit problems, you’re going to be hesitant. I respect that completely.”

But hesitation without understanding creates a different problem. It pushes carriers toward expensive, short-term fixes because they never built alternatives.

The real distinction Gerri emphasized is this: credit isn’t inherently dangerous — unmanaged credit is. Used intentionally, it creates flexibility. Used reactively, it becomes a trap.

That’s especially relevant in trucking, where factoring is often treated as a default solution instead of a calculated tool.

The Factoring Trap Nobody Explains Well

Factoring came up repeatedly in our discussion — not as something inherently bad, but as something dangerously misunderstood.

Gerri broke it down plainly: factor rates are often marketed as “1% or 2%,” which sounds harmless. But when translated into an annualized rate, those costs can balloon quickly. “Some factoring arrangements translate into APRs of 30%, 50%, even higher,” she explained.

The issue isn’t that carriers use factoring. It’s that many don’t understand what they’re paying because nobody teaches them how to compare options. As Gerri put it, “You might discover you’re better off with a credit card at 18% than a factoring deal that looks cheaper on the surface.”

That lack of comparison is what turns a temporary solution into a permanent margin leak.

Business Credit Is Not Personal Credit — and That Matters

One of the most eye-opening parts of the conversation was how different business credit actually works compared to personal credit.

Most carriers are familiar with personal credit rules: 30-day grace periods, late payment thresholds, consumer protections. Business credit operates on an entirely different system.

Instead of grace periods, business credit uses days beyond terms. Pay a Net-30 invoice on Day 31, and you’re technically late. Pay consistently late, and it shows — even if cash flow eventually evens out.

As Gerri explained, business credit bureaus also compare carriers against their peers — by industry, size, and geography. That means your payment behavior isn’t evaluated in isolation. It’s measured relative to other trucking companies like yours.

That reality alone changes how small carriers should think about systems and discipline.

Why So Many Carriers Have “No” Business Credit

One of the most common misconceptions we addressed is the idea that simply being in business automatically builds business credit.

It doesn’t.

Gerri noted that many companies operate for years without any business credit profile at all because none of their accounts report to business credit bureaus. “You have to leverage some credit to build credit,” she said. “You need accounts that actually report.”

That typically includes:

  • Net-30 trade accounts
  • Fuel cards that report to business bureaus
  • Business credit cards that report activity

Without those, there’s nothing to score — no matter how long the business has existed.

The Role of Dun & Bradstreet (and Why It Shows Up Everywhere)

Another key topic was Dun & Bradstreet — particularly the PAYDEX score. Many carriers encounter it indirectly when renting trailers, bidding on contracts, or onboarding with larger shippers.

As Gerri explained, these scores aren’t just about borrowing. They’re often used to answer a different question entirely: Can this company fulfill the job?

That’s why carriers sometimes feel blocked without understanding why. The decision isn’t personal. It’s financial risk screening.

And that screening only works in your favor if the data is accurate — which brings up another overlooked issue.

Errors, UCC Filings, and Silent Red Flags

Business credit reports are more prone to errors than personal credit reports. Similar business names, asset purchases, and unreleased UCC filings all contribute to false risk signals.

Gerri highlighted how common it is for UCC filings — especially from factoring or equipment financing — to remain on reports long after obligations are paid. “They’re very good about filing them,” she said. “They aren’t always great about releasing them.”

For carriers, that can mean being denied opportunities they didn’t even know they were being evaluated for.

The Real Advantage of Strong Credit: Choice

If there was one theme that kept returning throughout the conversation, it was this: strong credit doesn’t guarantee success — it preserves options.

With good credit, carriers can compare financing tools instead of grabbing the first one available. They can choose between factoring, lines of credit, or credit cards based on cost and timing — not desperation.

As Gerri summed it up: “When your credit position is strong, you have more choices. And that means you’re not forced into the least favorable option.”

That distinction matters more in trucking than almost any other industry.

The One Habit That Changes Everything

When I asked Gerri what single habit could immediately improve a carrier’s financial position, her answer wasn’t complicated.

“Never miss a payment,” she said. “Payment history is the number one factor in building both personal and business credit.”

Not aggressively paying early. Not chasing every new account. Just consistency.

That kind of discipline isn’t flashy. But it’s the difference between reacting to problems and planning around them.

Final Thought: Credit Isn’t Optional — It’s Inevitable

The biggest takeaway from this conversation wasn’t about tools or tactics. It was about awareness.

Credit already affects every carrier — whether they understand it or not. The difference between those who survive and those who struggle often comes down to whether they learned the system before they needed it.

As I said at the close of the episode, “Too many good operators get squeezed out of this industry not because they can’t run freight, but because nobody ever showed them the financial system they were operating inside of.”

Credit isn’t something to reach for in desperation. It’s something to understand early — quietly, intentionally — so when pressure hits, you still have room to maneuver. That’s not theory. That’s survival.

Trimble posts Q4 beat despite ongoing weakness in freight demand

Trimble Inc. reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded expectations, with its transportation and logistics segment posting organic growth and setting the stage for accelerated revenue and margin expansion in 2026, the company said Tuesday.

The Westminster, Colorado-based technology provider reported fourth-quarter earnings results and held a call with analysts before the market opened. Trimble posted revenue of $969.8 million, down 1% year over year but exceeding Wall Street analysts’ predictions of $950 million in the fourth quarter.

For full-year 2025, Trimble posted $3.59 billion in revenue and recorded annualized recurring revenue of $2.39 billion, up 14% organically.

Trimble’s transportation and logistics (T&L) segment generated $136 million in revenue in the fourth quarter, up 4% organically, and $527 million for full-year 2025, representing 5% organic growth year over year. 

Trimble CEO Rob Painter said the company’s T&L unit continued to grow despite ongoing weakness in freight demand.

Annualized recurring revenue for the segment reached $508 million, up 7% organically, reflecting continued expansion across Trimble Transporeon, enterprise transportation management systems and mapping solutions.

“We continue to grow [transportation and logistics], despite a more challenged freight market, driven by our unique ability to connect carrier TMS, shipper, maintenance, mileage, navigation, fuel tax reporting and fleet workflows across both North America and Europe” Painter said.

“In the third quarter we announced Proctor and Gamble as an anchor tenant. In December, we won the business of one of the world’s leading beverage companies to manage their U.S.-based spot, bid and strategic procurement.”

Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB) is a provider of technology for trucking companies, freight brokerages and 3PLs. The company also operates in industries such as construction and buildings, geospatial hardware and software, and resources and utilities.

The company’s adjusted earnings came to $1 per share beating Wall Street analysts’ earnings predictions of 96 cents per share.

Trimble’s T&L unit delivered an operating income margin of 22.9% in both the fourth quarter and the full year, though margins were pressured by stranded costs following Trimble’s divestiture of its mobility business earlier in 2025.

More than 90% of segment revenue is now recurring, underscoring the company’s transition away from transactional software and hardware toward subscription-based platforms, according to the earnings presentation.

Management said organic growth in 2025 was led primarily by Maps, Transporeon and forestry-related offerings, with strong customer additions among large shippers, carriers and logistics service providers in both North America and Europe.

Looking ahead, Trimble expects its transportation and logistics business to reaccelerate modestly in 2026 as freight markets stabilize and enterprise customers expand usage of connected workflows.

For full-year 2026, Trimble guided total company revenue to a range of $3.81 billion to $3.91 billion, implying 6% to 9% growth, with organic annualized recurring revenue expected to rise 12% to 14%. 

Segment-level guidance calls for transportation and logistics revenue of approximately $565 million, up from $527 million in 2025, with mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and high-single-digit ARR growth expected year over year.

Painter said Trimble remains cautious about macro conditions in freight, but sees long-term opportunity in connecting shipper, carrier and logistics data across its platforms.

“When we look at the macro environment, we still see a more challenged freight market, but that is reflected in our guidance, and we believe our recurring-revenue model positions us well even in a muted demand environment,” Painter said.

Trimble’s transportation and logistics unit posted revenue of $136 million in the fourth quarter.

As Non-Domiciled CDL Rules Face Litigation, Trucking Still Needs an Honest Conversation

There’s a lot of discussion right now about non-domiciled CDLs. Headlines are flying, social media is dialed, and everybody’s got an opinion. But for the people actually holding the steering wheel — the drivers — much of what’s being said doesn’t line up with what’s really happening at the DMV, at the scale house, or at the kitchen table.

This is about some drivers who’ve been running clean for a decade or more, showing up to renew their CDL like they always have — and suddenly being told, “We can’t issue it right now.” No violations. No crimes. No failed tests. Just a pause. And for a driver, a pause can cost everything.

In the middle of ongoing litigation involving non-domiciled CDL enforcement, Jorge Rivera sat down with Playbook to discuss why he challenged the FMCSA and what the broader industry is missing.

Jorge’s Situation Is Not Unique — It’s Just Visible

Jorge Rivera has been driving commercially since 2014. Twelve years on the road. One minor incident in his entire career — handled responsibly, reported immediately, insurance involved, no attempt to run or hide.

He’s lived in the U.S. since he was two years old. Built a business. Bought a home. Raised kids. Paid taxes. Renewed his work authorization on schedule, every time.

And yet, in September, when he went to the Utah DMV early — not late — to renew his CDL, he was told something that blindsided him: “The whole state is shut down for limited-term CDLs until we pass a federal audit.”

Not you are shut down. Not you did something wrong. The entire state and that distinction matters.

What Actually Changed in September — In Plain English

Let’s strip this down to brass tacks.

What DIDN’T change:

  • English Language Proficiency rules
  • CDL testing standards
  • Medical card requirements
  • Safety regulations
  • Driver responsibility

English proficiency has been required since the 1930s. This is not new.

What DID change:

  • The federal government issued an interim rule tightening how states verify immigration and work authorization for non-domiciled or limited-term CDLs
  • States that were not fully compliant were told to pause issuance until they pass a federal audit

Utah was one of those states.

So when Jorge showed up, the DMV clerk wasn’t saying:

  • “You’re illegal”
  • “You don’t qualify”
  • “You failed something”

They were saying: “Our hands are tied.”

That’s a big difference — and one the public conversation keeps missing.

What “Non-Domiciled” Actually Means — And What It Doesn’t

This is where a lot of drivers — and even commentators — get tripped up. Non-domiciled does NOT automatically mean illegal.

It means:

  • You are not a U.S. citizen or permanent resident
  • You have legal presence (DACA, asylum, TPS, work permit)
  • Your CDL is tied to the expiration of your work authorization

Jorge renews his authorization every 18–24 months, with fingerprints, background checks, fees, and paperwork — over and over again.

There is no skipping the line. There is no one-time approval. There is no “just do it the right way” shortcut and that line doesn’t exist.

Why Drivers Are Getting Blamed for a System Failure

Here’s where the grey area enters the chat, do you blame the person or the system?

Some states were issuing CDLs without properly matching them to work permits. That’s a DMV compliance failure — not a driver failure.

But when those licenses are later flagged, the public narrative becomes: “Illegal immigrants got CDLs.”

That’s not accurate. The licenses may have been issued incorrectly — but many of the drivers were still legally present and authorized to work, as in Jorge’s case.

The enforcement breakdown happened upstream, not behind the wheel. And yet the driver is the one losing their job.

The English Proficiency Argument — Where It Falls Apart

Jorge made something very clear in the interview:

He is not against English proficiency. He agrees drivers should speak and understand English. Most non-domiciled drivers agree with that. So what’s the problem some ask?

The contradiction:

  • Some states allow written CDL tests in other languages
  • Some third-party testers conduct training and exams in non-English languages
  • Scale houses sometimes fail to enforce English checks — then release the driver anyway

That creates a loophole. And instead of closing the loophole, the system hit the eject button on everyone.

As Jorge put it: “Don’t cut the whole tree down because of a few bad apples.”

The Human Cost Nobody’s Talking About

This isn’t just about over-the-road trucking. Non-domiciled CDL holders are:

  • School bus drivers
  • City sanitation drivers
  • Yard jockeys
  • Utility and linemen drivers
  • Municipal workers

Some never touch the spot market. Some never cross state lines. Some don’t even haul freight.

But they still need a CDL — and they’re still frozen out.

One driver Jorge mentioned moves containers inside a yard only. Another transports children to school.

They’re losing jobs not because they’re unsafe — but because paperwork upstream is under review.

“Go Back to Your Country” Misses the Point Entirely

Here’s the part that goes off the rails in conversations across socials. Losing a CDL does not equal deportation.

If Jorge loses his CDL:

  • He can still legally work
  • He can still operate a business
  • He can still stay in the U.S.

So when he hears people say “go back to your country,” they’re not talking about trucking anymore. They’re talking about identity. And that’s why this debate has become so volatile across social media.

What Drivers Actually Want — It’s Not Special Treatment

No one in this conversation asked for lower standards.

What they’re asking for is:

  • Individual review
  • Retesting if necessary
  • Proof-based enforcement
  • Accountability at the DMV and carrier level

Jorge said plainly:

“Tell me to retake the test in English — I’ll do it.”
“Charge me a fee — I’ll pay it.”
“Give me a chance to prove I’m compliant.”

What drivers can’t survive is silence, uncertainty, and blanket shutdowns.

Why This Matters to Every Trucker — Citizen or Not

If you think this doesn’t affect you because you’re a citizen, here’s the reality:

  • Enforcement creep always expands
  • Compliance failures get passed downhill
  • Drivers are the easiest target

Today it’s non-domiciled CDLs. Tomorrow it could be medical certifications, age rules, endorsements, or testing providers.

When policy is written far from the road, drivers always feel it first.

The Bottom Line

This issue isn’t clean and it isn’t simple, but one thing is clear: You don’t fix safety by punishing people who followed the rules. You fix safety by enforcing the rules correctly, consistently, and fairly — and by remembering that every CDL belongs to a human being with a family behind it as well as every motorist on the highway is a human being. That’s what this conversation was about.

Trump’s bridge threat injects uncertainty into busiest US–Canada freight corridor

President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to prevent the opening of the U.S. side of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, injecting fresh uncertainty into one of North America’s busiest freight corridors.

In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump said he would not allow the bridge — which links Detroit with Windsor, Ontario — to open unless Canada agrees to new trade negotiations and what he described as compensation for alleged unfair trade practices. 

”We will start negotiations, IMMEDIATELY. With all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset,” he wrote. 

Trump accused Canada of taking advantage of the U.S. on tariffs, excluding American products, and strengthening economic ties with China, claims that Canadian officials and state leaders dispute.

“Now, the Canadian Government expects me, as President of the United States, to PERMIT them to just ‘take advantage of America!’ What does the United States of America get — Absolutely NOTHING!” he said. “Ontario won’t even put U.S. spirits, beverages, and other alcoholic products, on their shelves, they are absolutely prohibited from doing so and now, on top of everything else, Prime Minister Carney wants to make a deal with China — which will eat Canada alive. We’ll just get the leftovers! I don’t think so.”

It remains unclear what authority the White House has to block the bridge’s opening. According to a 2012 agreement, the Canadian government and the state of Michigan are fully funding the estimated $4.7 billion construction of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, with operations handled by the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority. 

The Detroit–Windsor corridor is the most critical truck freight crossing between the U.S. and Canada. 

Based on historical U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics data, total commercial truck traffic across the Detroit–Windsor border crossing is estimated at roughly 2.7 million to 2.9 million two-way crossings in 2025, or about 225,000 to 245,000 trucks per month.

The Gordie Howe bridge is intended to directly connect Interstate 75 in Michigan with Highway 401, creating a more efficient, truck-friendly route that bypasses local traffic and neighborhood bottlenecks. It is also expected to handle more hazardous-materials shipments, further easing pressure on existing crossings.

Trump’s comments come amid rising tensions ahead of a scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, heightening concerns in the freight industry that cross-border infrastructure could become leverage in broader trade negotiations.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke to Trump early Tuesday morning about the Gordie Howe International Bridge, adding that there was “virtually no U.S. content” used during construction, according to the CBC.

“This is a great example of co-operation between our countries. I look forward to its opening. What is particularly important, of course, is the commerce and the tourism and the voyages of Canadians and Americans that will go across that bridge,” Carney told reporters on Tuesday morning.

Red Sea torpedoes Hapag-Lloyd rates

Hapag-Lloyd said container volumes surged 8% in 2025 from the previous year but the average price to carry a container of freight fell by the same percentage as operating costs soared on longer voyages away from the Red Sea.

The German company (HLAG.DE) said preliminary data showed revenues of $21.1 billion in the 2025 financial year, up from $20.7 billion y/y. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $3.6 billion, off 1.4% from $5 billion, while earnings before interest and taxes came to $1.1 billion, down 1.7% to $2.8 billion.

The fifth-largest carrier by TEU capacity said its 2025 alliance with Maersk (MAERSK-B.CO) on the east-west Gemini Cooperation and robust trade growth boosted freight volume by 8% to 13.5 million TEUs. At the same time, the average freight rate fell by 8% y/y, to $1,376 per TEU. It cited higher costs due to the ongoing rerouting of ships away from the problematic Red Sea-Suez Canal and  around the tip of Africa, and start-up expenses for Gemini. 

The partners, with naval assistance, have restarted at least one scheduled service on the Red Sea route.

The company expects alliance cost savings to kick in during the second half of 2025 and will be fully realized in 2026. 

Hapag-Lloyd will report FY2025 earnings on March 26. 

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Teamsters union sues UPS to block delivery driver buyouts

A side view of a brown UPS van with the driver jumping on board on a rainy day.

The Teamsters union on Monday asked a federal court to stop UPS from initiating a second voluntary buyout program for package car drivers, saying the effort to eliminate jobs violates their national contract.

Chief Financial Officer Brian Dykes told analysts during the company’s Jan. 27 quarterly earnings call that UPS (NYSE: UPS) was planning a second voluntary buyout program for delivery drivers as part of an effort to save $3 billion by cutting an additional 30,000 frontline jobs and two dozen facilities. 

UPS has notified the union it intends to announce a voluntary separation program, called Driver Choice, this week, the Teamsters said in a news release.

The union, which represents about 338,000 drivers, filed an emergency motion for a temporary restraining order against UPS in the US. District Court in Massachusetts. The filing detailed at least six alleged violations of the national master contract by UPS in the rollout of the buyout program, including direct dealing with workers over new contracts and eliminating jobs when obligated to create more positions.

The Teamsters argue the Driver Choice Program violates the union contract because it wasn’t negotiated and any program that changes the terms of employment, such as compensation and separation, must be bargained with the union. 

It claims that UPS since late January has not responded to dozens of requests for information and documents related to its plan for a follow-on driver buyout.

UPS said it has been engaged with the Teamsters on a voluntary separation plan since early January and didn’t spring any surprise on the union last week. 

“We are aware of the Teamsters’ response to the voluntary separation program we planned to offer our U.S. full-time drivers and are working to resolve the matter through the legal process. This does not affect our operations, and we will continue to provide the reliable service our customers expect from UPS,” said Genny Bowman, vice president of communications, in a statement to FreightWaves.       

“The world is changing, and the rate of change is accelerating. As we navigate these changes and continue to reshape our network, our drivers appreciate having choices, including the option to make a career change or retire earlier than planned. We engaged with the Teamsters on this topic in early January. We are disappointed the Teamsters have chosen to oppose a program that is entirely voluntary and would provide a great benefit to our employees, particularly as we continue to right-size our workforce,” the statement said.   

Buyout 2.0

The Teamsters loudly objected last summer when UPS for the first time ever offered early retirement to delivery drivers, saying the contract requires the Atlanta-based company to create 30,000 full-time jobs under a five-year contract ratified in August 2023 and that the payment was too low compared to what drivers can earn in wages, health care and guaranteed retirement benefits. It urged members to reject UPS’s lump-sum payment offer. 

Turnout for the program was low. Under last year’s package, a driver with 27 years of service received a $48,000 payout. About 2,000 drivers took the UPS offer,according to an estimate by industry expert Satish Jindel, the president of ShipMatrix. The average driver likely received about $86,400 when benefits worth 20% of the cash benefit are added, according to calculations by Jindel. 

The scope of UPS’s updated buyout program is much broader than the payoff presented to workers late last summer, when UPS targeted payouts to more tenured drivers nearing retirement, according to the Teamsters. The Driver Choice Program, as stated in the lawsuit, would be offered to all drivers at UPS regardless of length of service. Drivers who accept the offer must commit to never work for UPS again and to waive their rights to union representation in the event grievances arise over execution of the agreement, the union said. 

“For the second time in six months, UPS has proven it doesn’t care about the law, has no respect for its contract with the Teamsters, and is determined to try to screw our members out of their hard-earned money,” said Teamsters General President Sean M. O’Brien. “If [CEO] Carol Tomé has buyer’s remorse for the historic, legally binding contract she signed with rank-and-file Teamsters, that’s her problem. Our union will not allow UPS to inflate its earnings reports on the backs of Teamsters families. We’ve given too much to grow and sustain this company, and we will not be sold short. UPS must dismantle its illegal buyout program and resolve its contract violations in the courts, or the Teamsters will see this greedy corporation in the streets.”

In 2025, UPS eliminated 48,000 operational jobs and closed 93 leased and owned distribution centers as part of a multi-year network consolidation spurred by a planned 50% drawdown in less lucrative business with Amazon, slower demand  related to new import tariffs on e-commerce goods and automation investments designed to improve sorting efficiency.

Critics say that the Amazon business is no longer as profitable because the new Teamster contract significantly increased UPS’s cost base. 

Multiple Teamsters local unions have filed grievances against UPS over the contract violations associated with last year’s voluntary separation program, the Teamsters said. Those grievances are expected to enter binding arbitration next month following a National Grievance Committee hearing between the union and the company.

In its motions before the court on Monday, the Teamsters requested an injunction to prevent the rollout of UPS’s Driver Choice Program and a stay on further action by the company to offer such incentive programs until an arbitrator’s ruling on the pending grievances related to last year’s buyout. 

“If UPS is allowed to move forward with this illegal program, it would cause irrevocable harm to our union and a majority of our hardworking members. The Teamsters Union ensured our members rejected UPS’s insulting payoff last year. Unfortunately, UPS continues to reach new levels of greed and corruption that require our fight to continue,” said General Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman.

UPS had fourth-quarter revenue of $24.5 billion, down 3.2% year over year, with average domestic daily package volume down 8.6%. Adjusted operating profit came in at $2.9 billion for the fourth quarter, off by 6.8% from the prior year. 

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

Write to Eric Kulisch at ekulisch@freightwaves.com.

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2,000 drivers left UPS after taking buyouts, analyst says 

Midmo introduces modular Edge Intelligence platform at Manifest 2026

Midmo used Manifest 2026 to introduce a new suite of Edge Intelligence modules, marking its latest move to push real-time visibility and decision-making closer to the physical operations of the supply chain. Tech solutions aren’t just aimed at operations as there is a growing shift across logistics technology toward intelligence that operates directly at docks, doors, equipment, and moving assets, rather than relying solely on centralized cloud processing.

The Edge Intelligence modules are built on Midmo’s MotionView platform and are designed to operate independently or in layered combinations. The company says this modular approach allows shippers, logistics providers, and technology partners to deploy real-time intelligence incrementally, without the need for heavy fixed infrastructure or rigid, single-purpose systems. At the core of the platform is sensor fusion, which brings together identification, movement, condition, and environmental data into a single operational view at the edge.

Midmo founder and CEO David Zingery said the launch is driven by the limits of cloud-only visibility as operations become faster and more automated. “As decisions move closer to physical systems, cloud-only intelligence is no longer enough. Edge Intelligence is about delivering real-time visibility where the work actually happens, at doors, docks, forklifts, pallets, containers, and in motion. Our mission is to own the edge for [automatic identification and data capture] AIDC, and that means enabling intelligence wherever identification and automation matter most.”

A key differentiator of the Edge Intelligence platform is its partner-led architecture. MotionView is designed to integrate with a wide range of existing edge technologies, including RFID, Bluetooth Low Energy, computer vision systems, LoRaWAN, NFC, telematics platforms, and environmental and condition sensors. Rather than replacing installed hardware, the platform aggregates and contextualizes data from multiple sources to create real-time operational visibility.

The company also emphasized its ability to convert existing, lower-cost devices into higher-value operational systems. Using its ValidPoint and SentientMode modules, handheld RFID scanners can be repurposed as always-on monitoring points when docked or mounted. When combined with the LoadAware module, those same devices can leverage built-in cameras and on-device artificial intelligence to detect forklift movement and validate pallet and case aggregation in real time. Midmo says this approach can reduce the need for fixed RFID portals and extensive cabling, which have historically limited scalability in warehouse environments.

Another capability introduced with the launch is Item Performance Profiles, which allow organizations to define expected performance standards for items based on how they move, how their signals behave, and how they interact with their environment. Deviations from those profiles can indicate issues such as misloads, shrinkage, loss, or fraud, even when item identifiers themselves appear valid. The goal, according to the company, is to move beyond simple identification toward behavioral validation at the item level.

Edge Intelligence also plays a role in cold chain and temperature-sensitive logistics. MotionView combines item movement and transaction data with temperature, humidity, shock, light exposure, and refrigeration telemetry to produce a consolidated operational record. That record can support real-time exception handling, compliance monitoring, and validation across food, pharmaceutical, and other regulated supply chains.

The announcement builds on recent product momentum for Midmo, including the launch of Trips, its transportation management system, and DockView, its inbound dock scheduling and visibility solution. Together, the platforms are intended to connect transportation planning, dock execution, and item-level verification into a single edge-native operational framework.

Benchmark diesel up slightly as talk of an oil glut begins to fade

The benchmark diesel price used as the basis for most fuel surcharges inched up this week, the fourth consecutive week of increases, in the midst of an oil market that still is pushing higher. 

The average weekly retail diesel price published by the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration rose 0.7 cents/gallon effective Monday, published Tuesday, to $3.688/g, up 0.7 cts/g.

It is the smallest gain in the ongoing four-week climb that has taken the price up from $3.459/g on January 12 to the latest number. That January 12 price was the lowest since June. 

With the usual lag between the price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange and the price at the pump, it’s uncertain where retail markets might be headed next.

Calendar impacting prices

The price of ULSD on the CME commodity exchange is significantly lower now than it was two weeks ago, but that has little to do with the overall market and everything to do with the calendar.

Two weeks ago, and through trading on January 30, the front month ULSD contract traded on CME was for barrels delivered into New York harbor in February. On February 2, the front month became March as February expired. 

Given that March is generally warmer than February; that ULSD and heating oil are structurally similar; and that markets two weeks ago were reacting to a deep freeze affecting heating oil demand, ULSD on CME closed out the month with a January settlement of $2.7356/gallon, the highest since April 2024. 

But by Monday, the settlement for March barrels was down to $2.3598/g, as markets then were reacting to reports of possible progress in U.S.-Iran relations as well as the rollover in the contract. 

Up and down trading in the days that followed brought the ULSD settlement as high as $2.47/g on Wednesday, before easing to settle Monday at $2.4169/g.   

Crude benchmark is rising

Even as that was going on in ULSD, the market for global crude benchmark Brent has been steadily moving higher. After a settlement Monday of $69.04/barrel, it has increased by $8.19/b from the December 31 settlement of $60.85. 

This was going to be the year of the oil glut, according to major forecasting agencies like the International Energy Agency. They looked at the OPEC and OPEC+ nations having unwound much of their earlier reductions in output, then saw demand increases that were modest at best, three in higher output from a list of countries that included Guyana, Brazil, Canada and the U.S., and the conclusion was that significantly lower prices were on tap.

Where’s the glut?

But almost six weeks into the year of the forecast great glut, that is not occurring. The latest developments in oil prices have undercut that narrative. 

That fact was the subject of an eye-opening interview oil analyst Jeffrey Currie, long-time chief of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and now Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at The Carlyle Group, gave to Bloomberg TV Monday. 

“I like to say, show me the glut.” Currie said “They’ve been telling this oil supply glut story for 18 months now, and it still has not materialized.”

Currie’s interview was notable because he took a longer-term view of commodity markets, including but not limited to oil. His core argument was that while some supply/demand balance forecasts are showing an excess of supply, investment in production capacity is not keeping up with what is likely to be a rush of demand related in part to data centers and AI.

“We’ve got hundreds of billions of dollars going into data centers that are going to consume power,” Currie said. “How you produce that power is with commodities. You need the copper to produce the grid, the transformers. You need natural gas to produce the power in the United States. And then you need other natural resources elsewhere in the world.”

Currie noted that the “new economy” of software can rapidly scale up to meet demand. But the “old economy” that needs to generate the commodities to build and power data centers can not. 

“You have these hyper scalers that are used to being asset light that are now doing asset heavy businesses that get you a lower multiple,” Currie said. “They are running into supply constraints. So we have to take capital out of that sector and start investing in asset-heavy industries and commodities.”

But Currie added that sector has not seen significant levels of investment for many years. He added that the surge of oil supply that has been coming out of those non-OPEC countries previously mentioned, like Brazil, is likely to see 2026 as its last year for awhile of significant growth, based on investment numbers.

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Gather AI raises $40m to scale its physical AI platform for global logistics

Warehouse operations can make or break an organization. That problem is at the heart of Gather AI’s latest funding round. The Pittsburgh-based startup announced it has raised $40 million in Series B financing, led by Smith Point Capital Management, the firm founded by former Salesforce co-CEO Keith Block. 

The raise brings Gather AI’s total funding to roughly $74 million and positions the company to accelerate global deployment of what it calls a “Physical Intelligence Platform” for logistics.

Unlike the wave of AI tools focused on text, forecasting or optimization layers, Gather AI is aimed squarely at the physical world. Its platform uses computer vision and machine learning to continuously capture and interpret what is happening inside warehouses, from pallet locations to inventory accuracy, using existing cameras, drones and mobile equipment. That data is then fed back into enterprise systems, giving operators a real-time view of conditions that are typically inferred through periodic scans or manual counts.

For many large logistics operations, that gap between system data and physical reality has become costly. Traditional warehouse management systems depend heavily on human inputs and scheduled cycle counts, creating delays and inaccuracies that ripple through fulfillment, labor planning and transportation. Gather AI’s approach replaces those snapshots with continuous verification, reducing the need for manual inventory checks while improving accuracy.

The company says customer adoption has accelerated rapidly over the past year, with bookings up 250% and deployments expanding across major logistics providers, retailers and industrial operators. 

“For too long, supply chains have operated with a fundamental blind spot: they couldn’t see what was actually happening on the floor,” said Sankalp Arora, CEO and Co-Founder of Gather AI. “This funding allows us to expand from real-time visibility to full autonomous orchestration. Our customers aren’t just finding problems faster. They’re preventing them entirely. That shift from reactive to proactive is what transforms Physical AI from a nice-to-have into the operating system for modern logistics.”

Customers including GEODIS, NFI Industries and dnata are using the platform to reduce labor-intensive inventory processes and address errors before they escalate into missed orders or downstream disruptions.

Investors are betting that this type of “physical AI” will become foundational infrastructure for modern logistics networks. “Gather AI is redefining how the physical world gets measured, understood, and operated,” said Keith Block, Founder and CEO of Smith Point Capital Management.“What Sankalp and his team have built isn’t just a better way to count inventory; it’s a foundational intelligence layer for the modern supply chain. We believe Gather AI will become the system of record for every warehouse, factory, and yard, and we’re thrilled to help accelerate that future.”

According to Gather AI, customers typically see a return on investment in under six months, driven by labor savings, higher inventory accuracy and fewer service failures. In some facilities, manual inventory work has been reduced by as much as 80%, while accuracy levels exceed 99%.

With the new funding, Gather AI plans to expand deployments across hundreds of additional sites globally while investing in predictive capabilities that move beyond visibility into anticipation, identifying issues before they affect service or inventory positioning.