A U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)-sponsored study on automated driving systems (ADS) concludes that truck drivers should not fear significant job losses due to automation unless driverless technology is adopted on a fast timeline.
Produced by DOT’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, “Macroeconomic Impacts of Automated Driving Systems in Long-Haul Trucking,” released in January, for the first time estimates productivity benefits due to ADS in the trucking industry as well as indirect benefits for the wider economy. It is considered a “companion piece” to a federal interdepartmental preliminary analysis on the same issue.
“Our model indicates that the productivity enhancements from the adoption of ADS in the long-haul trucking sector will increase GDP, capital, employment, wages, and welfare that can be monetized into billions of dollars,” the study asserts.
“Additionally, our model concludes that these economic benefits can likely be reaped without mass lay-offs of long-haul truck drivers. Assuming the occupational turnover remains near today’s levels, employment levels in the long-haul trucking sector will necessarily fall due to automation, but will not force lay-offs in the slow- and medium-speed adoption scenarios,” it states.
Only under the fast adoption scenario — a “very optimistic” scenario in which 75% of new vehicle purchases involve ADS within 10 years of the technology becoming available — does the study predict layoffs in the trucking industry. However, the study notes, these are at most 1.7% of the long-haul workforce in a single year, and the layoffs only occur during a five-year period.
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Niko
Who is going to be responsible when a driverless truck kills someone?
ThaGearJammer25/8
The immigrant programmer? Black guy? Look, we are so far ahead of this it’s not even realistic at this point. Its like space travel in the 70s yes it’s possible but the costs are so high it’s not beneficial. And the article is accurate. I give this 30 years to but still believe ground surface transportation is the dial up to wifi! To much congestion the future is the sky! FYI saw a Tesla fail last week in autonomous (occupant both hands on cell) left hand turn cut off Tesla (typical city driving) and it stopped in its tracks. Almost causing rear end accident. Seems simple but the variables are astronomical machine learning has to take place.