Determine your bottlenecks before leveraging new AI technology

With the rise of AI technology, many brokerage firms and other logistics companies are still trying to figure out what new tools they need to keep a competitive edge. As with any technological disruption, it can be difficult to distinguish legitimately helpful products from the ones that simply take advantage of the trends.

Dhruv Gupta, CEO of Drumkit, encourages brokers and 3PLs to thoroughly explore and understand their workflow bottlenecks in order to make novel AI technology work most effectively.

Gupta has spent his whole academic and professional career interested in optimizing transportation and logistics. “I was that nerd kid in high school, and I always thought trucks and trains were just cool,” he said. “I took that forward throughout college, and so I’ve been building stuff in the transportation space my whole career.”

Much of the public, Gupta says, discounts how important transportation and infrastructure are. “Whether it’s commuting or getting the goods and services they need, most people don’t think about the supply chain or transportation until it stops working,” Gupta said. “When it works, it hums in the background and it’s the backbone of any economy, but when it doesn’t, you see really quickly how much it brings things to a halt.”

After working at multiple startups and in sectors like last-mile logistics, all surrounded by software, Gupta understood where and how he and his team could best put their talents to use. They have been building what’s now called Drumkit for the past few years and pivoted into their current product lineup about 18 months ago.

Right now, many brokers are trying to answer the question, “How do I use AI in my brokerage, and is it even worth it?” Between data analysis, chatbots, workflow automation and more, it can be difficult for brokers to determine a practical approach that meets their needs.

Before implementing AI, Gupta says, take a step back. “What is holding you back from growing?” he asked. “Are you not reaching enough potential customers, or are you failing to offer the right rates? Is it that your team can’t handle all the check calls and scheduling that they have to do? Are you having trouble managing carrier capacity or sales?”

Figuring out your bottleneck first, according to Gupta, can help you determine how to leverage new technology to find a solution. “If that solution happens to involve AI, that’s great, but you don’t need to find an excuse to use AI,” he said.

“AI will find its place when you try to solve your pain points,” Gupta said. “I’m not in the business of trying to peddle AI. I’m in the business of solving your workflow problems, and AI is one new tool that we can use.”

Sometimes, simply improving elements of your workflow like your use of spreadsheets or your standard procedures can be better timesavers than new tools.

The best approach, according to Gupta, is to start with the problem and figure out the solution incrementally. “Try fixing one variable at a time,” he said. “If you start by saying, ‘I need AI in my brokerage,’ that doesn’t really mean anything and you might not solve your issues.”

If you’re struggling with appointment scheduling problems, for instance, it might be best to start by examining your procedures. Who is in charge of that scheduling, and does that role need to be adjusted?

“Focus on yourself first,” Gupta said. “Don’t focus on what else is out there. It’s worth knowing what other companies are doing, but you have to make tools work for you and your situation. Otherwise, you’ll just be a hammer looking for a nail.”

“You should think of technology as a ladder,” he said. “Start with the basic solutions you can implement using what you have at your disposal. As you want to scale up, that’s where tools like Drumkit can really optimize your productivity. Give us a call, and we’ll help you automate what you’re already doing.”

Drumkit is designed to increase productivity in a variety of ways, such as helping to process emails 10 times faster with workflow automations specifically designed for logistics. Freight forwarders and brokers work with Drumkit to save time and book more loads.

To demonstrate Drumkit’s advantages, Gupta laid out an example of how its automation tools have helped customers. “We work with brokers who handle 40,000 loads per month,” Gupta said. “Before they used Drumkit, their win rate was approximately 10%, but the bigger problem is that they were only responding to about 40% of available shipments.”

“That’s probably for various reasons,” Gupta said. “Sometimes you don’t see all of the available loads, or you don’t want to cover a particular lane. No matter the reason, if you can bump response rate up by a couple percent with one tool, the net value to your bottom line – or your top line, in this case – goes up dramatically.”

With Drumkit’s AI automation tools, brokers can dramatically accelerate response rate, even without changing the win rate. Interestingly, Gupta says, increasing the response rate also correlates to an increased win rate.

“It’s a win-win scenario,” Gupta said. “If you have requests you can’t process and you’re not making enough top line, an AI tool can help streamline that process, read conversations, get quotes and so on.”

When it comes to routine workflows such as track and trace or check calls, Drumkit can be a huge timesaver, and that increased efficiency is a vector for growth, according to Gupta.

“You don’t want your after-hours team to really be working that hard,” Gupta said. “You don’t want senior leadership to have to continually answer calls and emails when they’re away or when they’re networking. That’s what you want Drumkit to handle. When you have tracking automated, your team can focus on sales and expanding the business.”

Part of Drumkit’s mission is to help brokers optimize ROI per employee. If, instead of making check calls, an employee can spend time solving a more complex problem, that’s a service level increase for the customer. “That means retention will be higher and they’ll like working with you, and that’s only a good thing for you,” Gupta said.

Automation doesn’t remove any responsibilities, but it does enable employees to accomplish more in a given day when the more routine tasks are taken care of.

“If you find that you have extra time in your day, go call a customer and book more business,” Gupta said. “That’s an incredible opportunity that enables you to expand. Whatever model of brokerage you have, having newfound time is an accelerant that can make you more productive in every facet of business.”

Click here to learn more about Drumkit.

Trump tariff fears plague ocean container rates

Trans-Pacific ocean container rates have eased post-Lunar New Year, despite volumes estimated to be significantly stronger than a year ago.

The latest Freightos Baltic Index pegs rates to the West Coast of around $2,200 per forty-foot equivalent unit and to the East Coast of approximately $3,300 per FEU, more than 20% below 2024 lows.

This trend is likely due to increased competition and less effective capacity management from new carrier alliance rollouts, as well as continued fleet growth, said Judah Levine, Freightos head of research, in a release.

Asia-Mediterranean rates of around $3,500 per FEU are about 20% lower than post-Lunar New Year 2024, while Asia-Europe rates of $2,565 per FEU) are 20% below the 2024 floor despite ongoing port congestion at European hubs. Without tariff frontloading as a factor, easing demand and new carrier alliances are pushing rates down on these lanes, Levine said.

Shipping is bracing for potential disruptions and shifts in trade patterns, he observed, with uncertainty remaining the predominant theme in global commerce.

While President Donald Trump has set an April 2 deadline for new tariff announcements, confusion surrounding the White House’s trade policy continues to mount. The Trump administration has indicated it will narrow the scope of reciprocal tariffs initially proposed for all U.S. trade partners with tariffs or trade barriers on U.S. exports. Only 15% of countries with a trade imbalance will face reciprocal tariffs, but these account for most U.S. imports and bulk of the trade deficit.

The list of targeted countries includes China, Mexico, Canada, the nations of the European Union, as well as potential alternative sourcing partners such as India and Vietnam. Tariff levels will vary based on foreign tariff rates for U.S. exports.

Levine noted that despite earlier reports of postponements, Trump stated that global duties on automotive and pharmaceutical imports would be announced soon, possibly before April 2. Additionally, an executive order signed Monday will apply 25% tariffs on top of existing tariffs to goods from any country purchasing oil from Venezuela, potentially impacting China, Singapore, Vietnam and India.

Further clouding the outlook, the U.S. Trade Representative this week is also holding public hearings on proposed port call fees targeting Chinese-made vessels. American cargo owners, exporters, port labor and ocean carriers have objected, citing major threats to their businesses.

Heightened fears of steep U.S. tariffs on EU alcohol imports led the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance to advise members to halt all shipments. However, overall U.S. import demand suggests shippers continue to frontload due to tariff uncertainty. This is reflected in the recent buildup of empty containers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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White Paper: Cannabis, Compliance, and Driver Retention

As marijuana usage becomes more culturally accepted and legalized across the U.S., the trucking industry faces new challenges—particularly around driver retention. Navigating the complex relationship between state-level legalization, federal regulations, and Department of Transportation (DOT) policies is proving to be a critical issue for carriers and drivers alike.

In this white paper, we break down the intersection of marijuana legalization and driver retention, offering insights and actionable strategies to help you stay ahead in a rapidly evolving landscape.

Insights Include:

The Growing Cultural Acceptance of Marijuana: How changing attitudes and laws are impacting the trucking industry.
The Legal Divide: Why DOT regulations continue to prohibit marijuana use and the consequences for drivers.
The Impact on Driver Retention: How confusion around marijuana laws is complicating recruitment and retention efforts in an already strained industry.
Where Do We Go from Here? Practical insights on how trucking companies and drivers can navigate this regulatory gray zone.

Don’t miss out—download your free copy now to gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities in this critical area of the trucking industry.

Survivor of massive I-35 crash sues Amazon, ZBN Transport for over $100M

A week after a tractor-trailer crash killed five people on Interstate 35 in Austin, Texas, a survivor of the 19-vehicle wreck has sued the transportation companies and truck driver involved.

According to the lawsuit filed by Nathan Jonard, attorney Bradley Beckworth said his client’s life “was forever changed by an act of unimaginable destruction” when Solomun Weldekeal Araya rammed his tractor-trailer into a line of traffic.

The complaint, obtained by FreightWaves, seeks over $100 million in damages from Amazon Logistics, ZBN Transport and Araya himself – who was arrested a day after the incident and charged with five counts of intoxication manslaughter and two counts of intoxication assault.

It stated that Jonard was southbound on I-35 when construction on the interstate halted traffic. At the same time, Araya was behind Jonard, hauling a full load of cargo for Amazon as an independent contractor with ZBN Transport.

Once Jonard’s vehicle stopped, the complaint stated Araya failed to slow down or stop, resulting in a high-impact, high-speed collision.

“Eyewitnesses later confirmed the horrifying reality: Defendant Araya never even touched the brakes,” the complaint stated. “He slammed into car after car after car, unleashing destruction across the highway.

“The force of the collision caused Plaintiff to lose consciousness. He woke up in a mangled vehicle, disoriented, and in agonizing pain. His head and legs were bleeding. His ribs throbbed with unbearable intensity.”

Emergency responders arrived and transported Jonard to Dell Seton Medical Center, where doctors treated him for a number of injuries from broken ribs and other bones and a herniated C5/C6 disc “causing excruciating nerve pain” and lacerations all over his body.

The complaint stated that Araya failed a field sobriety test after the incident and a detective determined that he was impaired by CNS depressants at the time of the collision.

“CNS depressants are an overarching category of medications that include sedatives, tranquillizers, and hypnotics, and are known to slow down signals sent between the brain and the body,” the complaint stated.

Furthermore, the complaint stated that Araya had multiple previous hours-of-service violations and prior hazardous moving violations while operating commercial vehicles.

The complaint accuses Araya, Amazon “and/or” ZBN Transport on several counts of negligence.

“This is a tragedy for all involved,” said Beckworth in an emailed statement to FreightWaves. “And perhaps the most tragic part of it is that it was completely avoidable. Amazon and ZBN Transport used a driver who had multiple prior moving violations and had several violations for exceeding his allowable driving time limits in the week before this tragedy. And, he failed 6 different drug and intoxication tests taken after the wreck. These defendants needlessly endangered our entire community. On behalf of Mr. Jonard, we intend to hold them accountable and, hopefully, we can prevent other tragedies like this from happening in the future.”

Beckworth asked anyone who has information about the wreck or people involved to call his office, Nix Patterson LLP.

Beckworth added that he thinks this case “should serve as a strong message to our legislators who are meeting in session in Austin.”

“Right now, powerful big money corporations are doing everything they can to limit the right to a jury trial in cases like this,” he said. “They want to limit the amount a family can recover for pain and suffering to $500,000 for their entire life. Yet, at the very same time, they are trying to protect big corporations from having a jury find out that they hire truck drivers who are on drugs and alcohol or who have had prior violations that should have kept them from ever being hired.”

“Hopefully, when legislators see facts like we are dealing with here they will think twice before they choose big corporations who are trying to take away our right to a trial by jury,” he continued.

“This is a horrible tragedy, and our thoughts are with all those involved,” said Amazon spokesperson Maureen Lynch Vogel in an emailed statement to FreightWaves. “We’re cooperating with all investigations.”

FreightWaves has reached out to ZBN Transport for comment.

Trucking, copper, cocoa: Volatility roils commodities

The ongoing geopolitical realignment and escalating trade tensions are sending shockwaves through global commodity markets, reshaping long-established trade routes and supply chains. From copper to cocoa, and even the U.S. trucking industry, these shifts are creating both challenges and opportunities for businesses and investors alike.

The most visible impact of the trade wars has been on major freight flows, particularly in the crucial eastbound trans-Pacific ocean container lane connecting Chinese exporters to U.S. importers. This vital artery of global commerce has seen weaker volumes and falling rates, with the Freightos Baltic Daily Index showing rates at $2,188 per forty-foot equivalent unit, the lowest since December 2023. This decline reflects the uncertainty and disruption caused by protectionist policies and retaliatory measures between the world’s two largest economies.

However, the ripple effects of these trade tensions extend far beyond container shipping, touching various commodity markets in profound ways. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the copper market, where the threat of U.S. import tariffs has created unprecedented arbitrage opportunities and is reshaping global supply dynamics.

Copper, often referred to as “Dr. Copper” for its ability to predict economic trends, has seen its U.S. futures prices surge to record highs on the Comex exchange. This dramatic price action is driven by traders pricing in the possibility of hefty tariffs on the crucial industrial metal. The price gap between U.S. copper futures and the global benchmark on the London Metal Exchange has widened to record levels, creating a powerful incentive for traders to shift copper into the United States.

Copper futures prices have reached a new record on tariff fears. (Chart: Bloomberg)

Kostas Bintas, head of metals trading at Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., estimates that 500,000 tons of copper is heading to the U.S. in March, compared to normal monthly imports of around 70,000 tons. This massive inflow is leaving the rest of the global market, particularly top consumer China, facing a potential shortage. Bintas predicts that this unprecedented situation could drive LME copper prices to over $12,000 or $13,000 per metric ton.

The copper market’s dislocation highlights how trade policies can create unintended consequences and market inefficiencies. While U.S. manufacturers may face higher input costs, traders with the ability to navigate these complex dynamics stand to reap substantial profits. Meanwhile, the global copper supply chain is being reshaped, with potential long-term implications for producers, consumers and investors worldwide.

While the copper market grapples with potential shortages, the cocoa market faces a different set of challenges stemming from historically high prices. Cocoa futures nearly tripled last year due to supply concerns from West Africa and are currently trading near $10,000 a ton in New York. These sky-high prices are having a significant impact on chocolate manufacturers and consumers alike.

Cocoa futures have experienced extreme volatility. (Chart: Bloomberg)

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts have trimmed their deficit estimates for the current 2024-25 cocoa season to 40,000 tons, down from their earlier forecast of 108,000 tons. This revision is primarily due to an expected 1.8% fall in demand as historically high cocoa prices deter consumption. Chocolate makers are feeling the squeeze, with recent earnings reports suggesting that previously resilient demand is weakening.

Cocoa price volatility is being driven by a mix of supply-side challenges and market dynamics. Extreme weather, particularly in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa, has hammered yields. Droughts, heat waves and erratic rainfall – linked to climate change and events like El Niño – have stressed cocoa trees, while diseases like the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus have wiped out significant farmland, especially in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Aging tree stocks and underinvestment in farms compound the problem, keeping supply tight.

On the demand side, global appetite for chocolate remains strong, but recent data shows grinding (processing) hasn’t fully offset deficits, with three consecutive years of shortfall. The 2024/25 season might see a slight surplus, but inventories are still low, leaving little buffer. Market mechanics amplify this: Low liquidity in futures trading, driven by speculative funds and algorithmic trading, has led to wild swings – prices hit $12,000 per ton in April 2024 before crashing 27% in a single day due to margin hikes and position unwinding.

Structural issues, like concentrated supply from just a few countries and regulatory shifts (e.g., the EU Deforestation Regulation), add uncertainty, keeping volatility high. High prices might eventually spur more planting, but that takes years to pay off, so the roller coaster isn’t stopping anytime soon.

Turning our attention to the United States, we find that the trucking industry, often considered a commodity itself, is also feeling the effects of these broader economic shifts. The U.S. trucking market has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with the pandemic creating unprecedented challenges in securing transportation capacity.

Current data indicates that the U.S. truckload market is nearing a state of equilibrium between supply and demand, a balance not seen since 2022. This shift is exemplified by the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI), which tracks the percentage of truckloads that carriers reject. Since May 2023, this index has displayed a gradual but consistent upward trend, signifying a move away from the oversupply that previously characterized the market.

Rejections have outpaced spot rates, suggesting that spot rates will likely increase. (Chart: SONAR. To learn more about SONAR, click here.)

The national outbound tender rejection rate (OTRI.USA), which measures the percentage of truckloads that are electronically tendered by shippers and rejected by carriers, has climbed to 6.88%, near the level that we consider to be inflationary for spot rates.

Meanwhile, the National Truckload Index (NTI.USA), SONAR’s national average truckload spot rate inclusive of fuel, stands at $2.25 per mile, continuing its downward trend since its most recent peak at $2.53 per mile on Jan. 11.

In other words, tender rejections have diverged upward from the spot rate trend, opening up a gap. Typically, after tender rejections move (either up, when capacity is tightening, or down, when capacity is loosening), spot rates follow in the same direction. When capacity is tightening relative to demand, rates go up; when capacity is loosening relative to demand, rates go down.

For that reason, we believe that truckload spot rates are set to go up.

The Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the percentage of truckloads rejected by carriers. (Chart: SONAR. To learn more about SONAR, click here.)

In regions like Dallas and Atlanta, the OTRI figures have surpassed the national average, at 9.9% and 8.53%, respectively. This indicates tighter capacity, with carriers in these areas more frequently rejecting tenders. The underlying reasons for this increase can be traced back to a convergence of reduced capacity and shifting priorities among carriers who now favor loads offering better financial returns. The focus has been on maximizing operational efficiency amid fluctuating demand.

Furthermore, specific areas like the Pacific Northwest have seen a notable rise in the Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index (FOTRI), driven in large part by strategic cross-border timber and lumber shipments to Canada in anticipation of impending tariffs. This increase highlights the targeted manner in which capacity is being allocated according to market conditions and anticipated economic pressures.

The truckload market’s incremental move toward equilibrium displays a restrained but deliberate tightening as capacity adapts to the current economic landscape. While this realignment presents challenges, particularly in securing optimal loads and building density in desirable lanes, it also underscores the market’s ability to adjust and respond to prevailing economic conditions.

Notably, while tender volumes have declined significantly in recent months, rejection rates have remained relatively stable. This suggests that the truckload market has tightened more than many realize, with carriers becoming increasingly selective about which loads they accept. Large fleets have been parking and selling trucks over the past year, with enterprise carriers like Werner and Marten Transport reporting significant reductions in tractor counts.

The ongoing geopolitical realignment and trade tensions are reshaping global commodity markets in profound and often unexpected ways. From the copper market’s unprecedented arbitrage opportunities to the cocoa industry’s struggle with record-high prices, and the U.S. trucking market’s delicate balance, these shifts are creating a new landscape for businesses, investors and policymakers to navigate.

Perhaps the only safe bet to make right now is on more volatility, for longer.

A look at DeJoy’s Postal Service legacy after quick departure

An 18-wheel Postal Service truck moves down the highway.

Louis DeJoy’s effort to turn around the U.S. Postal Service’s financial fortunes was made more difficult by a host of entrenched interests, but he threaded the political needle in a way that gained grudging respect from stakeholders who often opposed his reforms.

A day after DeJoy’s abrupt exit as postmaster general, postal union leaders on Tuesday credited him with initiating a long overdue modernization effort rather than enabling ideas now contemplated by the Trump administration to privatize the U.S. Postal Service.

His departure creates a major leadership vacuum at a time when the Postal Service is facing declining mail volumes and mounting pressure to maintain universal service and its status as an independent agency.

DeJoy was appointed nearly five years ago with the recommendation of President Donald Trump and a mandate to fix a broken business model bleeding billions of dollars per year, mostly due to structural handicaps imposed by Congress and the Postal Regulatory Commission. He frequently battled with those institutions for flexibility to implement changes. Now, some suspect, Trump pushed DeJoy to leave because he wasn’t supportive enough of draft plans to merge the Postal Service into the Commerce Department, dismiss the board of governors or sell the agency to investors.

DeJoy’s tenure was turbulent by most accounts, largely owing to the complex transformation he initiated in 2021. Since then, the Postal Service has rationalized air and surface transportation, redesigned package sorting and logistics processes, and upgraded the delivery fleet, and it plans next month to slow slow service in remote areas to improve overall efficiency. He also established policies to grow the parcel business and advocated raising rates on stamps and packages. Critics said higher prices contributed to the decline in mail volume, but other observers say the correction was necessary after years of undercharging for products and services.

DeJoy made difficult choices to reduce the agency’s operating deficit, such as eliminating overnight service for first-class letters between major metro areas and eventually instituting two-day delivery by greater utilization of long-haul trucking. He also eliminated a layer of upper management and consolidated regional headquarters.

The agency recently achieved its first quarterly profit since the height of the COVID crisis, but it’s possible the improvement came from a huge injection of political mail during last year’s election.

The former postmaster general’s effort to consolidate processing centers didn’t always work out. Mail service in Atlanta, for example, drastically deteriorated after the U.S. Postal Service combined a processing and distribution center into a single supercenter, which led to backlogs of trucks and other delays because of labor and infrastructure constraints.

Large e-commerce shippers like Amazon didn’t like DeJoy’s move to insource more package volumes and compete with commercial parcel carriers rather than simply serving as a dropoff for their last-mile delivery needs.

Labor and management sometimes disagreed on how to implement DeJoy’s Delivering for America strategy but were usually able to work out differences constructively, union leaders said during a panel discussion Tuesday livestreamed from the National Press Club in Washington.

“We were able to resolve some very difficult issues,” such as putting new hires on a career path rather than treating them separately under a two-tier wage scale, said Mark Dimondstein, president of the American Postal Workers Union. “Whatever people thought about Louis DeJoy, he did not prove to be a privatizer.”

Brian Renfroe, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, said turning around an organization the size of the Postal Service, with 640,000 employees, is a tall order, but the momentum DeJoy created must be maintained to adjust infrastructure for a different mail mix centered on packages rather than letters.

One expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize a business relationship with the Postal Service, said DeJoy’s freedom to act was severely limited by regulators, Congress and restrictive labor contracts. Unions opposed moving from six-day- to five-day-per-week delivery because it would cost thousands of letter carrier jobs even though there isn’t enough mail on Saturdays to justify the extra shift. Meanwhile, direct mailers fought to keep shipping prices as low as possible.

Kevin Yoder, the executive director of Keep US Posted, a non-profit organization representing greeting card companies and mass mailers, told media outlet Axios he was glad to see DeJoy go because his rate hikes and service delays hurt businesses and consumers

DeJoy also was praised for pressing Congress in 2022 to get rid of the obligation to pre-fund from revenues the health benefit costs of retirees. Instead, the Postal Service now pays premium payments when they are due.

The agency’s board of governors named Deputy Postmaster General Doug Tulino to replace DeJoy on an interim basis while it searches for a permanent leader. Tulino for years has been the Postal Service’s top negotiator in collective bargaining with unions.

The union chiefs said they expect the board of governors to look for someone who will continue DeJoy’s modernization vision.

(Correction: Doug Tulino’s name was misspelled in an earlier version of this story)

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

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Aircraft Finance Market Outlook: Buy Now, or Pay the Price Later

As we settle into 2025, the aircraft finance market continues to evolve, presenting both opportunities and challenges for buyers and lenders alike. Costs to borrow are dropping across asset classes in the U.S. economy, stimulating demand for everything from homes to cars and aircraft.

The bottom line is that banks are competing more aggressively for borrowers’ business, which is great for aircraft buyers. This month, we’re seeing some interesting trends emerge, particularly in the owner-flown segment encompassing high-end pistons and turboprops.

The demand for private aircraft remains robust, driven by a combination of factors, including the ongoing recovery in corporate travel and a desire for greater operational flexibility. However, the market is not without its complexities. Let’s dive into the current landscape and what it means for potential aircraft buyers.

Market Dynamics in Owner-Flown Segment

The high-end piston and turboprop market, popular among owner-pilots, is experiencing particularly interesting dynamics. Demand remains strong, driven by both experienced pilots looking to upgrade and newcomers entering the world of aircraft ownership. This segment has seen a notable influx of first-time buyers who, having entered the market in the immediate post-pandemic period, are now looking to upgrade or replace their initial purchases.

As some first-time buyers opted for older models due to their lower initial costs, they now face significant maintenance needs. This has prompted them to consider newer models, impacting both new and pre-owned aircraft sales across the market.

The availability of newer aircraft remains constrained, a trend anticipated to persist throughout 2025. This scarcity is driving prices upward and impacting financing conditions. Moreover, President Donald Trump’s administration has hinted at restoring the 100 percent bonus depreciation, which could further stimulate demand. Buyers targeting these sought-after models may face heightened competition, necessitating swift decision making and thorough readiness to secure advantageous financing arrangements. Waiting could cost you thousands when demand hits its peak.

Interest Rates and Terms

For those considering financing options in the aircraft market, interest rates for owners of piston-powered aircraft, turboprops, and jets are currently in the high 6 percent range. This is a lower rate than last year by about 115 basis points, making it a compelling time for potential buyers. These competitive rates can vary based on factors such as the borrower’s credit profile, the aircraft’s age, and its intended use—be it for personal enjoyment or business operations.

Interest rates for aviation lending have dropped in a broader context of falling costs of capital across the economy.

First, 10-Year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen 55 basis points this year, reducing the cost for the federal government to issue debt. Average 30 year fixed-rate mortgages are at 6.67 percent, according to the St. Louis Fed, down from their peak at 7.76 percent in November 2023. Finance rates on new auto loans also peaked late last year, and are down to 7.8 percent on 60-month loans, as of November. We expect falling interest rates to stimulate capital investment and industrial production, particularly in the construction and automotive industries, but also in general aviation.

Returning to aircraft, the average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is holding steady at 85 percent for personal/business use and 80 percent for commercial use (charter, leasebacks, etc.), providing buyers with substantial leverage opportunities. Terms are ranging from 15-20 years, with the specific duration often contingent on the aircraft’s age and how it will be utilized. This flexibility allows buyers to structure their loans in a way that best aligns with financial goals and operational needs.

However, it’s important to highlight that flight school use aircraft are seeing rate increases of 1 percent to 2 percent above the standard rates, coupled with increased down payment requirements. This reflects the higher wear and tear these aircraft typically endure and the associated risk from a lender’s perspective.

Financing Tools and Resources

For those considering an aircraft purchase, understanding the potential costs and structuring of a loan is crucial.

FLYING Finance offers a useful aircraft loan calculator that can help prospective buyers estimate their monthly payments based on the purchase price, down payment, interest rate, and loan term. This tool can be invaluable in the early stages of planning, allowing buyers to explore different scenarios and understand how various factors impact their financing options.

Looking Ahead

As we progress through 2025, several factors are worth monitoring for their potential impact on the aircraft finance market. The ongoing geopolitical situations in Europe and the Middle East continue to create uncertainty in global markets, which could influence interest rates and economic conditions more broadly.

Additionally, the aviation industry’s push toward sustainability is gaining momentum. This could lead to increased demand for more fuel-efficient aircraft models and potentially influence financing terms for older, less-efficient aircraft.

The supply chain challenges that have plagued the industry in recent years are showing signs of improvement, but their effects are still being felt. As new aircraft production ramps up and delivery times potentially shorten, this could impact the dynamics between the new and pre-owned aircraft markets.

Lastly, regulatory changes, particularly those related to emissions standards or tax policies, could significantly influence the market. Buyers and lenders alike should stay informed about any potential shifts in these areas.

March presents distinct opportunities within the aircraft finance market, albeit ones that demand strategic maneuvering. For prospective buyers—particularly those eyeing high-end pistons and turboprops—comprehensive research, diligent financial planning, and collaboration with knowledgeable aviation finance professionals will be crucial in securing an aircraft under favorable conditions.

As always, the team at FLYING Finance is prepared to guide buyers through their options, helping them discover the financing solution best suited to their needs.

SFOO Summit: Carriers need AI agents to keep up with broker tech

This fireside chat recap is from FreightWaves’ Small Fleet & Owner-Operator Summit on Wednesday.

FIRESIDE CHAT TOPIC: AI for owner-operators and small fleets

DETAILS: In this fireside chat, Grace Sharkey sits down with the founder and CEO of Hey Bubba to explore how small trucking fleets and owner-operators can harness the power of AI in their everyday operations. From automating back-office tasks to enhancing driver communication with voice AI, Tapan Chaudhari breaks down practical, cost-effective ways AI can improve efficiency, reduce workload and drive profitability.

SPEAKER: Tapan Chaudhari, founder and CEO of Hey Bubba

BIO: Chaudhari is the founder and CEO of Hey Bubba, an AI agent specifically built for owner-operators. Chaudhari was also the founder and CEO of TruckX Inc., a fleet management company that has more than 10,000 small fleets and owner-operators on the platform. TruckX is still operational and servicing more than 50,000 drivers on the platform. Chaudhari currently serves as a board member of TruckX.

KEY QUOTES FROM CHAUDHARI:

“Safety comes with two things. One is, of course, drivers have to make sure they are driving safely on the road, but that mainly comes from peace of mind. So if their mind is at peace, they can drive well. They certainly know how to drive well; that’s why they choose to be a driver. It’s just that all the chaos that goes behind the scenes plays in their mind, and then that’s where not-so-good things happen.”

“AI voice agents are automating the bidding process for brokers and it will increase the work on the carrier’s end. … Now they will get more calls, because an AI agent can make hundreds of calls at the same time. They will call you. They will email you. So now on the carrier side, how do you handle the challenge of that volume of communication?”

“AI is the next wave. I think everyone has to adopt it. People who are not adopting it are going to suffer down the line. That’s what is happening. The same thing happened with the internet. The same thing happened with the smartphone.”

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PHOENIX – The crowded FreightTech field faces a continuous problem: How does a company make its products stand out when so much of their functionality overlaps with competitors’ offerings?

Most of what various FreightTech products offer in particular applications is identical, except for that last slice of functionality with which one company tries to set itself apart. And that’s where the fiercest battles take place.

That reality of the market has led the Truckload Carriers Association at its recent annual meetings to present a rapid-fire press conference, mostly of FreightTech manufacturers, although a regulatory discussion sneaked into this year’s event.

(A presentation at the press conference by TransFlo was covered separately by FreightWaves. A discussion by Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB) executive Brian Mulshine about a study his company conducted with FreightWaves on the impact of roadside breakdowns, released in January, can be found here.)

Virtually all of the presentations at this year’s event were enhancements of existing products, and most were add-ons to standard industry tools, such as ELDs or transportation management systems … but not all.

In no particular order, this is what was presented at the TCA 2025 press conference in Phoenix.

BeyondTrucks

The SaaS-based TMS provider said it was rolling out a fuel card management feature that was described as “smart.”

The feature has two major characteristics. The first, CEO Hans Galland said, allows a dispatcher to “define logic on when a fuel card is activated or not activated.” That aspect of the card, he said, is not driven by AI. Rather, its parameters would be set by “simply rule-based logic that the dispatcher wants to use.

“If the driver is on a load, I want the driver’s card to be activated so they can refuel if they need to,” Galland said in describing the card offering. “It’s black or white.”

The second characteristic is AI-driven. It enables funds to be triggered by the dispatcher to activate payments that can go to a device. “It results in less brain power absorbed by trivial decisions of the dispatcher but also results in a reduction of fuel debts or abuse of cards,” Galland said.

All the presenters released prepared statements accompanying the press conference. In the case of BeyondTrucks, it said the fuel card management capabilities in the company’s TMS have several features.

Among others it laid out, BeyondTrucks said the new product can “automatically activate” a driver fuel card when certain “triggers” are reached, including something as basic as hauling a load. But it can also send codes that authorize payments for other charges.

FleetOps

CEO Liam Lynch said FleetOps’ latest offering is a tool that puts a company’s performance rating of its drivers into the cab, rather than on a spreadsheet that might be accessible to a driver only once a month.

“We’re taking those same analytics and performance management tools that we developed and we’re bringing them down into the cab, directly to the driver,” Lynch said. In doing so, he added, drivers will be able to see in real time how they are doing relative to the company’s various standards that trigger bonuses.

“Getting drivers to give us more miles is still the single biggest problem that every truck has,” Lynch added. Getting to that by simply raising driver pay, especially in the current freight market, “is a very hard thing to do. It’s very hard to pull that back.”

He described the current situation: different metrics for every individual driver, three or four days at the end of the month in spreadsheets, getting people to sign off, and “ultimately the driver finds out a week or two weeks into the next month how much pay will be in his paycheck,” Lynch said.

But Lynch said the new FleetOps tool that will calculate performance metrics is “a full end-to-end process that not just automates that end of month, but centralizes the process, takes it off spreadsheets and gives everybody a way to see what they’re doing.”

That helps the back office, but for a driver, “we’re showing him not just what he’s earned right now, but we’re also nudging him and telling him what he needs to do next to maximize his pay. That really provides a real sense of transparency, and that this fleet is actually going to pay me my bonus.”

Trucker Path

The app-based tool that is perpetually adding services for its users, including parking, is tying into the nation’s 511 services, according to CMO Chris Oliver. As Oliver noted, all sorts of services are available to users that show road backups. But the 511 services also have traffic camera views of backups, which Oliver said can give the user a better perspective on just how bad the traffic jam is and when it might ease.

“That visual really adds a lot more to the experience than just a red line on the highway,” Oliver said.

The 511 service also features such information as steep grades and live construction feeds. “And it’s not just on the highways,” Oliver said. “This goes all the way to the last mile.”

Pedigree Technologies

Pedigree Technologies describes itself as a telematics company that serves a wide range of industries. The product it rolled out at TCA is an AI-driven tool for predictive maintenance, where the AI can take a stream of data and draw a conclusion that a truck needs some sort of service and hopefully do that before a problem develops.

Rocco Marrari, head of sales at Pedigree, said the AI product, called PredictiveView, will “provide fleet managers with predictive insights and actionable data, enabling them to make informed decisions about maintenance before those issues arise.”

“We’re telling you exactly what needs to be done well ahead of time,” Marrari said. “So that fleet is able to pull that truck off the road to get these issues fixed, and you’re able to use that data going forward.”

Marrari described trucking as “probably the most reactive industry I’ve ever come across.” The sales pitch will be to avoid unexpected vehicle failures, which he said costs the industry billions every year.

PredictiveView, Marrari said, will use algorithms to “analyze vast amounts of historical and real-time vehicle data.” The system can “spot unusual patterns” coming off of its various components, and immediately provide advice on preventive maintenance before the issues get worse.

TruSygnal

Ed Burns at TruSygnal is not only the founder of that company with his father, also named Ed Burns, but is CEO of Burns Logistics.

There are echoes of digital brokerage offerings in TruSygnal’s product. But whereas digital brokerage systems were designed to hook up a carrier with a spot load, the idea behind TruSygnal, launched last year, is to connect shippers and carriers without the need for a broker.

“The relationship between shippers and carriers is broken,” Burns said. “It’s kind of like having a conversation with your significant other and every time you do, your mother in law is there having a conversation between you. There are lots of third parties who have gotten involved in the transactions between shippers and carriers.”

TruSygnal hopes to fill a gap in shippers’ knowledge, Burns said. “Shippers don’t necessarily know where small to midsized fleets operate,” he said. This is occurring even though shippers’ transportation procurement officers are being solicited by carriers hundreds of times per day.

Direct links between shippers and carriers “go a lot smoother. They see rate stability.” So the two Burns asked themselves, “Why don’t we see more of this?”

Although the younger Burns did not discuss the capabilities of the digital brokerage tools, what he described was similar, except that it is designed to bypass brokers completely. “The tool creates matches between the shipper and carrier,” he said. “It’s like a dating app for shippers and carriers to fall in love.”

Mastery Logistics

Like TruSygnal’s, this presentation was atypical because it was a new product, not an add-on. Mastery Logistics rolled out MasterMind TMS, which it said it has been working on for six years.

Danielle Prigge, chief commercial officer, said MasterMind was developed by Jeff and Marianne Silver, who started Coyote Logistics, which is now part of RXO (NYSE: RXO).

MasterMind is not a new launch. But Prigge said Mastery was presenting to the TCA because it had just reached 60,000 transactions on the platform, which she said the company viewed as a milestone.

“The industry was lacking a modern, cloud-based TMS (that was) cloud-native and cloud-delivered that can manage the entire life cycle with as much automation as possible,” Prigge said.

While a TMS operating in the cloud is not rare, Prigge said the fact there never needed to be a migration of MasterMind was a benefit. “You can be a bit more agile when you start in the cloud,” she said.

Prigge said Mastery now has 21 customers, and the smallest fleet it supports has more than 1,500 trucks.

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E-commerce buildout supporting logistics space leasing activity

A research report from real estate investment trust Prologis said a fast-growing e-commerce segment continues to up the need for logistics warehousing space. The current trend is expected to generate demand for an additional 250 million to 350 million square feet of space over the next five years, the company said.

E-commerce sales increased 8% year over year in 2024 (10% higher on an inflation-adjusted basis) versus in-store sales, which increased just 1.8%. E-commerce sales accounted for 16.1% of total retail sales, an 80-basis-point increase y/y and 490 bps higher than the last reading prior to the pandemic, according to the Census Bureau. (Prologis estimates e-commerce’s penetration rate of “core retail goods sales” is 24% currently.)

E-commerce accounted for more than half of all retail sales growth last year and has grown at a 16% compound annual growth rate the past five years versus a 5% growth rate for traditional brick-and-mortar retail.

“Several years out from the exogenous forces of the pandemic and subsequent re-opening, recent consumer behavior reflects a return to long-term priorities: value, convenience and choice,” the report said.

The data showed occupied logistics space has increased 12% since 2019 (pre-pandemic) while retailers have culled space by 2.4%.

“Retailers are adjusting store footprints, with store closures surging in 2024 to the highest levels since 2020,” the report said. “As inventory and operations shift to logistics facilities, trends like showrooming, smaller-format stores, and restricted in-store stock are reducing onsite availability while increasing the need for rapid replenishment and fulfillment from nearby warehouses.”

In addition to the convenience that at-home shopping provides to consumers, shrinking retail footprints are expected to provide another catalyst for e-commerce sales, which Prologis (NYSE: PLD) estimates could total 30% of core retail goods sales by 2030.

Concerns over a changing trade landscape are driving cross-border e-commerce demand and leasing activity higher, the report said. Large e-commerce operators Shein and Temu are incorporating more domestic third-party sellers into their networks, essentially broadening their U.S. footprints.

Asian 3PLs accounted for almost 20% of new industrial leasing in the U.S. during 2024 and remain on a similar pace so far in 2025. Some of the activity has been in response to potential changes in the way low-value, or de minimis, imports could be treated. (Goods valued at $800 or less are currently exempt from import duties in the U.S.)

“If de minimis exclusions are removed, it will necessitate a shift toward lower-cost maritime shipping, longer delivery timelines and domestic inventory-holding strategies, with supply chains that more closely resemble existing U.S. e-commerce players,” the report said.

E-commerce leasing accounted for 19% of all leasing activity across Prologis’ portfolio last year, an increase from 14.1% in 2023 and 12.2% in 2022. Three primary markets – Southern California, New York City and Chicago – accounted for 55% of e-commerce leasing in 2024.

The need for space among retailers isn’t dying. Seventy percent of consumers expect same- or next-day delivery, which means “retailers will continue to recalibrate warehouse locations and fulfillment strategies and drive increased leasing near urban centers.”

Prologis said internal research shows e-commerce fulfillment requires three times the space of traditional in-store sales. “Broader product variety, deeper inventory levels, space-intensive direct-to-consumer shipping, returns processing and value-add services such as assembly” are the primary reasons.

Prologis estimates an additional 250 million to 350 million square feet of space will be needed over the next five years (approximately 50 million to 70 million square feet per 100-bp increase in e-commerce share).

“E-commerce continues to be a key driver of logistics real estate demand, prompting retailers to expand their footprints to support online sales,” the report said. “As penetration rises, companies are recalibrating supply chains to optimize delivery speeds, fueling demand for well-located logistics space. These structural shifts will continue shaping industrial real estate, keeping demand elevated as digital commerce scales further.”

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