Daimler Truck brings NextGenH2 to IAA as hydrogen pact forms

Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, Toyota and hydrogen supplier executives take questions at IAA Transportation in Hanover

HANOVER, Germany — Two of Europe’s largest truck makers say the battery-electric rollout got ahead of the chargers needed to run it. Eight companies in a press conference at IAA Transportation on Tuesday said hydrogen would not repeat the same mistake, with the fuel, the stations and the trucks arriving together.

Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, Toyota Motor Corp., Bosch, Air Liquide, TotalEnergies, TEAL Mobility and MB Energy announced a joint effort to make hydrogen trucking commercially viable in Europe by 2030, with Germany as the template and a request that the European Commission and other national governments copy it.

Daimler Truck brought its Mercedes-Benz NextGenH2 Truck to the show floor at the same event. The company plans to put a small series of 100 into customer operations from the end of 2026, and the first batch of 50 is already sold, said Karin Rådström, president and CEO of Daimler Truck. Customers have run the previous-generation GenH2 Truck almost 600,000 kilometers.

“This isn’t some small side project for us,” Rådström said. “It’s a very important part of our strategy.”

The company is investing a mid-three-digit million euro amount in hydrogen trucks through the end of the decade, and its first hydrogen combustion engine trucks are being prepared for market launch next year. The NextGenH2 runs more than 1,000 kilometers on a single fill of liquid hydrogen, and it carries 1.3 metric tons more payload than Daimler’s battery-electric eActros 600, because it is not hauling the batteries.

Rådström’s third argument was the grid. Europe has roughly 6 million trucks to convert, she said, burning about 60 million metric tons of diesel a year. The truck count holds up: the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association counted 6.2 million trucks in use across the EU in Vehicles on European Roads 2026, published in January and drawn from 2024 registrations.

“When you would translate that into electricity, if you would imagine running them all on electricity, that’s around 500 terawatt-hours of energy, which is actually the full annual electrical consumption of the country of Germany,” she said.

Germany’s gross electricity production ran 509.2 terawatt-hours in 2025, according to the Federal Statistical Office’s gross electricity production series, updated this month.

Volvo Group President and CEO Martin Lundstedt framed the alliance itself as the lesson from electrification.

“If we should have anticipated this type of lineup on the electric side five, six years ago, we shouldn’t have been standing yesterday saying that the transformation is moving too slow,” Lundstedt said.

Six euros a kilogram to make the business case

Hydrogen pricing is the pillar the business case rests on, and the panel was barred from discussing it. Master of ceremonies Andy Johnson opened the Q&A by ruling pump prices off limits, because competing station operators shared the stage. Both truck makers named the same target anyway: €6 ($6.92) a kilogram.

“When we can get down — and that is our analysis at Volvo — at a price point of 6 euro per kilogram in Europe, then we have the business case going,” Lundstedt said.

“Also our analysis shows it’s somewhere around 6 euro where it starts to get very, very competitive,” Rådström said. “And my understanding from the supply chain is that’s realistic, not today, but over time. That’s where we get to, maybe 2030 or a little bit after that.”

Europe’s stations dispense at the wrong pressure

Europe has 187 hydrogen stations, Rådström said, and the bulk of them were built for a different job.

“Most of them are 350 bar, so that actually doesn’t give you the added range that you need for it to be really beneficial for trucking,” she said.

Air Liquide is building the supply side out. Armelle Levieux, a member of the company’s executive committee responsible for innovation, technology and hydrogen energy, said the upstream is arriving on schedule: a 20-megawatt electrolyzer running in Oberhausen, Germany, for more than two years, a 200-megawatt unit starting in Normandy, France, before the end of this year, and another 200 megawatts in Rotterdam, Netherlands, the year after.

Heavy-duty trucking has to crack three problems at once, Levieux said: a viable station network, affordable fuel, and synchronization between the truck makers and the infrastructure operators.

“The end game is liquid hydrogen, because this is the only way to really have the volumes and the scale-up we need,” Levieux said. “And obviously this is what is going to drive us to diesel parity.”

TEAL Mobility, the 50/50 joint venture Air Liquide and TotalEnergies formed in 2024, runs 16 hydrogen stations across five countries under the TotalEnergies brand. A TEAL executive said station operators sit at the crossroads of the hydrogen supply chain and truck adoption, which makes them the first to absorb the damage when either one slips. The venture is targeting larger, faster stations that dispense both gaseous and liquid hydrogen until a standard emerges.

Volker Ebeling, senior vice president of new energy, supply and infrastructure at MB Energy, said the Hamburg-based operator already runs hydrogen stations in northern Germany and Sweden. Germany will not supply all the molecules, he said, naming the Nordics as one likely source and describing hydrogen as a global market.

Germany’s funding call drew twice the money available

Germany opened a funding call earlier this year covering hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles together, a deliberate attempt to start both at once. The government put €220 million behind it. Applications came to more than €450 million, more than double what was available, said Steffen Bilger, Germany’s federal minister of transport, who opened the press conference in German. The bids sought more than 70 high-capacity stations and 800 heavy-duty trucks, according to the partners’ joint announcement.

In a positive sign, the money ran out well before the applications did.

“Without stations, no hydrogen trucks run. Without vehicles, nobody builds a nationwide station network,” Bilger said. “That shows the companies want to invest, and we want those investments to happen.”

Rådström asked for a second round from the stage, minutes after Bilger left it.

“It would be great to have another program so all these projects can have the first batch,” she said. “The coordinated way of working can make us much more successful in building the hydrogen ecosystem than what we see on the electric side right now.”

A list of industry wants from Brussels

Markus Heyn, a member of Bosch’s board of management and chairman of its mobility division, said hydrogen’s remaining problem is its cost. Vehicles running Bosch fuel cell systems have already covered more than 30 million kilometers.

“The best technology isn’t viable if it’s not economically efficient,” Heyn said. “So we really need to bring the cost down, and we can only bring the cost down if we can scale it up. We need critical mass, and that’s why we need to create demand.”

Heyn’s asks: full implementation of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation with targets beyond 2030, targeted funding for electrolysis and infrastructure, an energy tax exemption covering fuel cells and hydrogen combustion engines alike, and removal of the additionality principle he said is slowing production of renewable fuels of non-biological origin.

Toyota is joining as a technology partner, bringing more than 30 years of fuel cell development and supply to the group. Executive Vice President Hiroki Nakajima said the company is separately working with Scania and Iveco on hydrogen-powered heavy-duty transport.

Lundstedt closed on the clock.

“I remain very positive about the discussion that we are starting here today, and not five years from now that we have seen in other experiences, because maybe it’s a little bit one or two years overdue already now,” he said. “But let’s go for it now.”

Estes bets $56M on cross-border, offshore freight expansion

Estes Express Lines is investing nearly $56 million to expand its cross-border and offshore freight network, including terminals, equipment and capacity serving Canada, Mexico, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Alex Peebles, senior director of offshore and international at Estes, said the privately held, family-owned carrier is taking a longer view of the freight market rather than allowing current conditions to dictate its investment strategy.

“We’re really looking at all of these investments from a long-term horizon and viewpoint perspective and one that’s going to help accommodate growth and capacity into all the offshore international markets that we service,” Peebles told FreightWaves.

Estes, which is celebrating its 95th anniversary this year, is North America’s largest privately held less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation provider. The company operates a network of over 300 terminals and service centers across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Alaska, Hawaii with coverage extending to Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean

Peebles said the company’s ownership structure gives it flexibility to move quickly when real estate and equipment opportunities arise.

“We’re not looking past current market conditions, given how fluid everything is right now,” Peebles said. “But we’re also kind of maintaining course and looking at this from that longer-term lens.”

Estes doubling capacity at Laredo border gateway

Mexico represents one of the company’s growth opportunities.

Estes currently has coverage through 52 service centers across Mexico, along with local sales personnel based in Mexico and Laredo. Peebles said the carrier is experiencing growth in its Mexico business this year, with Laredo serving as its primary gateway for freight moving across the southern border.

Part of the $56 million investment includes a larger Laredo facility that Estes purchased from another carrier and is now retrofitting.

The facility will roughly double Estes’ Laredo door count from about 40 to approximately 85 or 86 doors, according to Peebles. The property also includes warehouse space and a significantly larger yard.

The warehouse component could give Estes additional opportunities beyond traditional cross-dock operations at the border.

Estes Express Lines currently has coverage through 52 service centers across Mexico, and has plans to expand capacity in Laredo, Texas. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

“That’ll be a larger facility that we purchased from another carrier that we’ll be moving in sometime in the near future,” Peebles said. “That will also double our door count.”

Estes is also working to make the Otay Mesa, California, and El Paso-Juarez border crossings bigger parts of its Mexico network.

Peebles said Estes already handles some freight through the gateways but sees opportunities to reduce mileage and improve network efficiency. The carrier has service centers in San Diego and El Paso and is targeting the end of 2026 to implement new routings through the gateways.

“We really think there’s a lot of network efficiencies and opportunities for mileage reduction by getting them more in play,” Peebles said.

Canada LTL freight grows despite tariff uncertainty

North of the border, Estes has been expanding capacity at three gateways serving Canada.

The carrier officially opened its relocated Buffalo, New York, service center in June. The 171-door facility quadrupled Estes’ previous door count in Buffalo and serves as an important gateway into Ontario.

Estes has also nearly doubled its Detroit terminal to 139 doors from about 70 and doubled capacity at its Fargo, North Dakota, location.

The investments come amid an increasingly uncertain trade environment between the U.S. and Canada.

Estes’ Canada cross-border volumes began 2026 about 1% to 2% below the previous year before reversing course around the end of February, Peebles said. The carrier has since recorded significant year-over-year LTL growth, although he characterized overall customer demand as cautious.

Peebles said tariffs and retaliatory measures are affecting commodities regularly carried across the border, including steel, paper, automotive products and electronics. Estes is closely watching the impact but hasn’t yet seen a major change in volumes.

One trend Estes is seeing, however, could benefit the LTL sector.

Rather than radically restructuring supply chains because of trade-policy uncertainty, some manufacturers are purchasing smaller quantities of cross-border goods, Peebles said. That can shift shipments that previously moved as full truckloads into the LTL market.

“Manufacturers still need products,” Peebles said. “And if it is a cross-border supplier that they need, they’re just trying to order that in smaller quantities if they can, which naturally pivots to our world of LTL.”

Estes has also recorded growth in its volume truckload, or VTL, service between the U.S. and Canada, which generally handles shipments weighing between 7,000 and 10,000 pounds.

Cross-border tonnage is growing faster than shipment counts, Peebles said, while the average weight of a Canada shipment has increased about 5% to 6% year over year.

Some of that growth to shippers moving freight away from full truckload and into smaller shipment, Peebles said.

Estes approaches 14,000 terminal doors

The cross-border investments are part of a much larger expansion of Estes’ LTL network.

The Richmond, Virginia-based carrier currently operates 13,857 terminal doors across roughly 300 locations, Peebles said. The company expects to surpass 14,000 doors by the end of October, assuming construction remains on schedule.

Estes isn’t finished investing.

Peebles said capital spending over roughly the next year is expected to focus more heavily on equipment, including additional ocean containers and a large order of heated trailers to support next-day Canada service.

Estes currently offers next-day service into Toronto from markets as far south as Virginia and as far west as the Chicago area. Peebles said service performance on those shipments is in the “high 90s.”

Offshore freight represents another area where the company plans to continue deploying capital.

Estes says it is the only pure-play U.S. LTL carrier operating its own ocean container fleet serving Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Its 45-foot high-cube containers have primarily served Alaska and Hawaii, but the company expanded the fleet into Puerto Rico over the past year.

The carrier also opened a 29-door service center on Oahu in 2025. Estes says the combination of its terminals, trucks and ocean containers allows it to keep shipments within its network from mainland pickup through final delivery in Hawaii.

An Estes Express Lines-owned 45-foot ocean container is loaded for transport. Estes operates its own container fleet serving Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico as part of its expanding offshore LTL network. (Photo: Estes Express Lines)

For example, a shipment originating in Richmond can move across the country through the Estes network, be consolidated in California into an Estes-owned ocean container and ultimately be delivered in Honolulu by an Estes driver and truck.

The company’s consolidation points include Rancho Cucamonga, California, for Hawaii; the Seattle-Tacoma region for Alaska; and Jacksonville, Florida, primarily for Puerto Rico.

Peebles said Estes intends to continue investing despite near-term freight and trade uncertainty, with the goal of having capacity available when market conditions improve.

“We’re just looking at it from a longer-term perspective,” Peebles said. “I think we’re trying to find ways to take advantage of that now and make sure that our network is in a really good spot to be able to provide capacity when things switch around a little bit.”

The company’s original investment information characterized the nearly $56 million in spending as a series of offshore, cross-border and international investments in fleet, infrastructure and capacity.

Why it matters: Estes’ expansion shows how a major LTL carrier is adding cross-border capacity despite tariff uncertainty, including a significantly larger facility at the nation’s busiest U.S.-Mexico freight gateway.

SONAR Launches SCI Custom Insights — Free Webinar Demo October 1

See how leading shippers are using their own freight data to find where they’re overpaying, where service risk is building, and where they can save — live and in real time.

Shippers have spent years being told to let the data drive decisions. The harder problem has always been getting the right data, in the right context, fast enough to actually act on it.

SONAR’s new SCI: Custom Insights is designed to close that gap — and on Thursday, October 1st at 2:30 PM ET, SONAR is hosting a free live demo so shippers can see exactly how it works.

Register free here.

What SCI: Custom Insights Does

SCI: Custom Insights is a new capability within SONAR’s Supply Chain Intelligence platform, available to members of the SONAR Shipper Consortium. Participating shippers contribute their own transportation data — tendered volume, accepted and rejected tenders, carrier information, rates and lane activity — and SONAR layers it against its real-time market benchmarks to produce an ongoing, actionable view of network performance.

The result is a platform that helps shippers answer the questions that typically require weeks of manual analysis: Where are we paying above market? Which lanes are creating service risk? Are carriers performing the way we expected? Where should we focus first?

The platform is organized across three core areas.

Network Health provides an executive-level summary of the entire transportation network — total spend, market vs. actual rate performance, savings opportunities, at-risk freight, tender compliance, and budget vs. volume trends — all in one place. AI-driven insights surface shifts in volume demand, rates, and capacity so teams know where to direct attention before issues compound.

Benchmarking takes the analysis lane by lane. The Lane Opportunities module classifies every lane into one of four categories — High Risk, Savings Opportunity, Carrier-Dependent, or Efficiency Zone — based on pricing alignment, lane difficulty, and market conditions. Volume Compliance then maps planned vs. actual freight movement, giving procurement and operations teams the context they need to have productive conversations with carriers about performance and pricing.

Network Optimization goes deeper into the markets and carriers driving results. Network Analysis groups performance by origin or destination market, making it straightforward to identify whether an issue is isolated or part of a broader trend. Carrier Intelligence provides a network-wide view of carrier performance — average rates, rate variance, acceptance rates, rejected volume, lanes, haul length, and risk level — with AI-generated guidance on where to reallocate freight or renegotiate.

SCI: Custom Insights does not replace the existing Manual Analysis workflow in SONAR SCI. That capability remains available for mini-bids, project freight, scenario planning and new lanes — giving participating shippers both an ongoing view of their existing network and the flexibility to run one-off analysis when needed.

Why This Matters Right Now

Freight markets are tightening. Bid season is approaching. Capacity conditions are shifting faster than most routing guides were designed to handle.

For shippers managing complex networks across dozens of markets and carriers, the difference between knowing where performance is slipping and not knowing can be measured in millions of dollars. Most shippers don’t discover they’ve been overpaying until a bid cycle forces the comparison. SCI: Custom Insights is built to surface that information continuously — not once a year.

Join the Live Demo — October 1st

Ben Peterson, Head of Shipper Solutions at SONAR, will walk through the full platform live on October 1st and take questions in real time. The session is free and open to both current SONAR customers and shippers evaluating their options heading into bid season.

Here’s what attendees will see:

A live walkthrough of the Network Health executive dashboard
Lane-level benchmarking and the Risk & Efficiency Quadrant in action
Carrier Intelligence — how to identify which carriers to evaluate and where to shift volume
Network Analysis by origin and destination market
How Custom Insights and Manual Analysis work together

📅 Thursday, October 1, 2026
🕑 2:30 PM ET
💻 Free — virtual

Reserve your seat here.

SCI: Custom Insights is available exclusively to members of the SONAR Shipper Consortium. Shippers interested in learning more about consortium membership can reach out to sci@gosonar.com. If you’d like a personalized demo of SONAR’s SCI product, request it here.

Rail freight slides in rare off-week

Weekly rail traffic on U.S. railroads totaled 494,865 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending Sept. 12, down 3.7% from the same week a year ago.

Commodity freight came to 223,560 carloads, the Association of American Railroads reported, off 3.3%, while intermodal volume of 271,305 containers and trailers was weaker by 4.1%, y/y.

Just three of 10 carload commodity groups improved: Grain, 17.3%; petroleum and petroleum products, 6.5%; and forest products, 2.1%.

Motor vehicles and parts led decliners, down 18.8%, followed by chemicals, 9.2%, and nonmetallic minerals, 6%.

For the first 36 weeks of 2026, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,209,888 carloads, better by 2.7%, and 10,175,630 intermodal units were up by 4% y/y. Total traffic of 18,385,518 carloads and intermodal units improved by 3.4% from a year ago.

North American volume for the week on nine reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 326,500 carloads, down 3.3%, and 353,081 intermodal units, off 3.8%, from 2025. Total combined traffic reached 679,581 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 3.6%. North American volume for the first 36 weeks of this year was 25,216,803 carloads and intermodal units, a gain of 3% y/y.

Subscribe to FreightWaves’ Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your inbox.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

Container delays by rail increase at busiest U.S. ports

U.S. container imports climb 3.8% to 2.6 million TEUs, 3rd highest monthly level

Houthi gains deepen risk as carriers restore Red Sea services

Almost 1 million TEUs in new record for this U.S. container gateway

Freight Procurement Is Always On Now — AI Speeds It Up

AI in freight procurement could cut bid events from months to just 2-3 weeks. Emerge CEO Mark McEntire explains why shippers can’t treat procurement as a once-a-year event anymore. In this FreightWaves Today interview, McEntire breaks down the shift from annual RFPs to continuous procurement, why price alone is no longer enough, and how shippers are weighing capacity, carrier fit, risk and fraud in a tighter market. If you manage transportation procurement, routing guides or carrier strategy, this one gets straight to the point.

Emerge has installed a new CEO with more than three decades of experience on the shipper side of freight, signaling a strategic pivot toward closer customer alignment and product development rooted in operational reality. The executive, who previously held a role at Emerge before returning, said he reintroduced himself to the organization roughly two weeks before the interview, describing himself as being on “day 15” with what he called “day one energy.”

The most urgent message he brought to the role: the traditional annual freight procurement cycle is broken. “Procurement always needs to be on,” he said. “You can’t just set it and forget it.” He described a market evolution he has watched firsthand, from shippers running a single annual RFP to two per year, then quarterly events, then continuous mini-bids — a trend he said technology is now accelerating further.

“I don’t think price alone is enough anymore. If you get a rate in a bid, but it doesn’t come with reliable capacity, it isn’t really a rate.”

Beyond rate, he argued that carrier fit, lane fit, performance, and fraud risk must now be embedded in procurement platforms. He said Emerge helps shippers vet those factors, calling the outcome more resilient than traditional cost-and-service evaluations. Risk and fraud, he noted, are being introduced into the procurement process in ways that were not common even a few years ago.

On artificial intelligence, he drew a practical line between signal and noise: if AI helps make a better decision, eliminates waste, or eliminates work, it is valuable; if not, it is noise. He said AI’s most concrete near-term impact in procurement is speed — compressing a bid event that can take two months just to gather data down to a two-to-three-week process. “Shippers sit on a mountain of data,” he said. “It’s impossible for a human to see all the patterns in that data, the anomalies with the rates, the routing guide deterioration.” He stopped short of predicting AI would replace procurement professionals, but said it would deliver demonstrably better outcomes.

Emerge recently added LTL procurement capability through ProcureOS, bringing truckload, LTL, intermodal, and rail procurement under a single platform. The CEO said shippers do not view their networks in silos and that consolidating those modes under “one pane of glass” is central to the company’s growth thesis. He declined to detail what comes next on the product roadmap, saying the team would stay close to customers to identify gaps.

He outlined three priorities for his first year: getting company leaders talking to customers every day, driving growth through both new logos and expanded wallet share with existing accounts, and instilling organizational urgency. He also pointed to a 16-member customer advisory board created during his previous tenure at Emerge as a key mechanism for distilling customer feedback into product decisions, noting that the strategic account management team he built then remains in place.

Emerge’s new CEO says AI can shrink a freight bid cycle from roughly two months to two to three weeks by automating data gathering and pattern recognition.
He argues procurement must move from an annual ‘set it and forget it’ event to a continuous process, with carrier capacity reliability now as important as price.
Emerge has added LTL procurement via ProcureOS, putting truckload, LTL, intermodal, and rail sourcing on a single platform.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

Freight Market Alert: Why US Tender Rejections Are Skyrocketing

The freight market is showing an unusual tightening with widespread increases in tender rejection rates across the United States. Join us as we dive into the latest SONAR data, analyzing the unexpected post-Labor Day surge and what it signals for capacity and spot rates. We’ll examine regional impacts, trailer type trends, and the underlying factors driving this shift. Understanding these nuances is critical for shippers and carriers navigating a fragile market.

The national Outbound Tender Rejection Index climbed to 14.32% in the days following Labor Day, a move that FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland says is unusual enough to warrant close attention from carriers, brokers, and shippers alike. Unlike typical seasonal spikes tied to tropical weather or road-check weeks, this increase is showing up across virtually every major freight market in the country.

“I think one of the things that Craig and I talk about all the time is how fragile the market is,” said Strickland. “Capacity still has not grown in any meaningful way. Capacity itself is a very slow figure to change over time. It takes long stretches of time, hence the 3-year downturn that we had with the rejection rates all below 5%.”

“This is very unusual. This is not seasonal. It’s a nuance in the market. You’ve got to watch it.”— Zach Strickland

A sharp post-holiday volume surge is a primary driver. Strickland described the Labor Day shipping pattern as “probably the most aggressive post-holiday shipping surge” seen throughout the year, as shippers who deferred freight decisions ahead of the holiday returned to their desks and released a concentrated burst of tender activity. FreightWaves’ Sonar demand data showed a steep spike out of the Labor Day trough, standing well above levels recorded at the same point in 2025.

The Weighted Rejection Index — which combines weekly changes in tender rejection rates with market share to weight larger freight markets more heavily — showed widespread blue across the map, indicating deteriorating carrier acceptance. Notably, major freight hubs including Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg all registered increases, meaning the move is not being driven by a single tight regional market. Strickland also flagged Twin Falls, Idaho, a produce-heavy refrigerated corridor, along with harvest-season activity building in Iowa and the Dakotas as contributing factors.

By trailer type, refrigerated rejections are rising in line with seasonal expectations, as fall harvest demand pushes reefer capacity tighter — a pattern Van de Kamp noted tends to produce some of the highest refrigerated rejection rates of the year. Flatbed rejections have edged higher but remain subdued, weighed down by weak housing starts and uncertainty around CHIPS Act-related construction spending. Dry van rejections are the focal point of the current move.

Spot rates are beginning to reflect the tightening. Strickland noted that tender rejection rates historically lead spot rate movements and warned shippers not to expect the typical post-Labor Day rate rollover. “Watch out on the spot market here,” he said. “We’re already starting to see a little bit of a notch up.” One structural factor keeping the market sensitive to demand swings: Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced no storms, removing what is typically a September wildcard for capacity disruption along the Southeast corridor.

With end-of-quarter shipping activity still ahead and consumer demand trends around the holidays uncertain, Strickland said the market has considerable runway before conditions clarify. For now, the breadth of the rejection rate move — rather than its magnitude — is the signal carriers and shippers should be tracking.

National tender rejections reached 14.32% following Labor Day, driven by a broad-based volume surge rather than a single regional disruption.
The Weighted Rejection Index shows deteriorating carrier acceptance across major hubs including Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg, with refrigerated rejections rising seasonally on fall harvest demand.
Tender rejection rates are leading spot rates higher, and analysts warn shippers not to expect the typical post-Labor Day rate decline.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

USMCA Deadlock, Canada Bans: What It Means for Trucking

Canada tariffs are now hitting 700+ U.S. products, and some trade flows are moving from tariffs to outright bans. Kyle Peacock of Peacock Tariff Consulting breaks down what the U.S.-Canada breakdown and USMCA deadlock with Mexico mean for cross-border freight, trucking lanes, auto, steel, aluminum and shipper planning. The big takeaway: freight is already being pulled forward, lanes are shifting, and long-term decisions are getting harder. #CrossBorderFreight #Tariffs #USMCA

Canada has slapped tariffs of up to 50% on more than 700 American products and moved beyond tariff retaliation to outright import bans on select goods — including motorcycles and certain dairy products — marking a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade standoff. Meanwhile, a fourth round of U.S.-Mexico USMCA renegotiation talks wrapped in Washington this week without resolution, deadlocked over auto-content thresholds that Mexican officials say are unworkable within the proposed timeline.

The practical fallout for freight is already visible. Canadian manufacturers facing bans are pulling shipments forward to beat deadlines, driving short-term volume spikes that will leave carriers with empty lanes once the bans take effect. On the U.S. side, motorcycle dealers are placing early orders to avoid inventory shortfalls. “The trade routes will change and/or disappear based on these bans,” said Kyle Peacock, principal at Peacock Tariff Consulting.

“Tariff rates [are] driving the trucking lanes to a different geographical area — north, the northern borders, and the south and southern borders between Mexico and the U.S. as well. We’re seeing less freight crossing, and it’s based on these additional tariffs.” — Kyle Peacock, Peacock Tariff Consulting

The most immediate shift in freight geography is north-south lanes giving way to east-west corridors inside Canada. Peacock noted that traditional cross-border hauls between the northern U.S. states and southern Canada are shrinking, while intra-Canadian east-west moves are growing. Carriers that built networks around U.S.-Canada backhaul loops are losing the return legs, reducing asset utilization across legacy supply chains. Sectors feeling it first, Peacock said, are metals, aluminum, and automotive — industries built on just-in-time replenishment that leaves little buffer against tariff-driven disruptions.

Mexico faces a different pressure. The Mexican government initially aligned with U.S. policy by adding its own tariffs on Chinese goods, expecting relief from American levies in return. That concession has not produced a reprieve. Peacock said Mexico has essentially walked away from the auto-content negotiation, arguing that hitting the thresholds Washington is demanding “just doesn’t work in the timeframe that they’re giving.” The next scheduled round of U.S.-Mexico talks is set for the end of September in Washington. USMCA is subject to annual review through 2036, creating a decade of potential policy swings that shippers and carriers must now plan around.

For businesses caught in what Peacock called “decision paralysis,” his firm’s advice is to lock in capacity now. Spot-rate strategies that worked in calmer markets are giving way to dedicated long-term contracts as both shippers and carriers seek cost certainty. “For those that would have lived on the spot rate for years, now it’s okay, let’s get a dedicated rate for this customer, for this client, and ingrained in the long term,” Peacock said. Manufacturers considering new production lines or facilities in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico are largely in a wait-and-see posture, which Peacock warned is itself costly given the infrastructure investment needed.

Looking ahead, Peacock drew on precedent from other trade disputes, saying tariffs historically “go up in the elevator and take the stairs down.” He does not expect a swift return to tariff-free USMCA conditions, predicting that a new trilateral agreement signed by all three parties would be required to fully reset terms. He placed Canada as the more likely near-term deal, citing the progress made by U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer and Canadian Minister Dominic LeBlanc before talks broke down, while flagging significant additional U.S.-Canada tariffs scheduled to take effect January 1 as a hard deadline that could force movement.

Canada has imposed tariffs up to 50% on 700-plus U.S. products and added import bans on goods including motorcycles and dairy, prompting Canadian manufacturers to rush shipments before deadlines.
North-south cross-border freight lanes between the U.S. and Canada are shrinking as trade shifts to east-west Canadian corridors, disrupting legacy carrier networks and reducing asset utilization.
With USMCA subject to annual review through 2036 and U.S.-Mexico auto talks deadlocked, Peacock Tariff Consulting advises shippers and carriers to abandon spot-rate strategies and lock in long-term dedicated contracts now.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.

How This Freight Cycle Could Last

Freight’s cycle-ending forces are still stacking up, but Reliance Partners’ Chief Revenue Officer Thom Albrecht sat down with us to discuss why this one might last.

Nearly 360 trucking, freight brokerage, and insurance professionals packed the Grand Hyatt Nashville for the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series, Reliance Partners’ largest turnout yet for an event that started with 160 attendees in its first year. Over two days, the agenda moved from federal safety policy to cargo theft, credit risk, and the future of freight brokerage. The event opened, as it has in years past, with Albrecht’s signature freight, capacity, and economic update.

Albrecht split his presentation into two parts. The first was a traditional read on the health of the consumer and businesses, along with the broader economy. The second, framed as “a tale of two cities,” dug into the structural overhaul reshaping trucking capacity and why he believes the industry may be entering a freight cycle unlike any in the past two decades.

The economic data paints a mixed picture. Inflation-adjusted wages had strung together 35 straight months of gains after a brutal 25-month stretch of declines until April and May of this year turned negative again. Consumers are still climbing out of a purchasing-power hole.

Category-level inflation is an even messier story than the approximately 3.5% headline CPI figure suggests. As of the 5th Annual Trucking Matter Seminar, Gasoline was up 26.7% year over year even as it fell nearly 10% in June alone; lettuce and tomatoes were up 23.8%; coffee climbed 18.5%. Meanwhile, bacon, used vehicles, and eggs were all down on a year-over-year basis. Savings rates, sitting near 3% against a historical average north of 8%, left little cushion. Credit card delinquencies at 90 days had climbed back to 7.1%, still shy of the Great Financial Crisis peak but well above the lows of early 2022.

Business demand, Albrecht noted, was not robust, but better than in 2025. Customer inventories remained near survey-history lows. That’s good news for freight creation as this year’s replenishment freight has been steadier than a year ago. AI-related capital spending, meanwhile, accounted for nearly 70% of first half 2026 GDP growth. Strip out AI, tech, and government spending, and the rest of the economy actually contracted slightly in Q1 and barely grew in Q2.

Housing has been “stuck” for nearly four years. Existing home sales per 1,000 households had fallen to roughly 26, well below the 44-59 range of the 2000s and 2010s, with affordability consuming an estimated 43% of household disposable income against a more affordable level around 30%.

“A Tale of Two Cities,” a reference to the Dickens line “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” set the tone for the conference. Fraudulent and non-compliant carriers, Albrecht argued, had been thriving for years while compliant fleets absorbed the cost of doing things the right way.

His data backed it up: compliant carriers operate at roughly $2.38 a mile once insurance, payroll, drug testing, legal CDLs, and maintained equipment are factored in, versus roughly $1.65 a mile for carriers who cut those corners. That means a non-compliant 50-truck motor carrier has up to a $6.5 million cost advantage compared to a compliant 50-truck fleet.

Newly registered DOT numbers for for-hire, interstate, general freight carriers had exploded from a 2010-2019 yearly average of 9,760 to a 2020-2025 average of 36,658, with nearly 60,000 new registrations in 2025 alone. Albrecht’s presentation flagged the telltale signs of the fraud driving those numbers. Carrier phone numbers like 123-456-7890 and 867-5309, single addresses housing hundreds of “trucking companies,” and CDL mills with advertisements in various languages are all recognizable patterns.

Albrecht highlighted that there are still CDL schools advertising obtaining a CDL without English proficiency. Even today, there are several real examples visible online.

Albrecht’s Thoughts on the Potential of a Trucking “Super Cycle”

During the motor carrier panel discussion, Albrecht made the case that this cycle could break from trends in recent history. Freight cycles are typically defined as sustained stretches of rising rates followed by contraction. Albrecht defines a super cycle as one that runs longer than two years and one in which pricing is much stronger than CPI, if not double-digit. The industry hasn’t cleared that threshold since the cycle that lasted from mid-2003 to the fall of 2006.

The 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 cycles both petered out after roughly 18 months, and each was tied to a single regulatory catalyst (an Hours of Service change in the former, the ELD mandate in the latter). And even the recovery after the housing collapse lasted less than 20 months, albeit without any trucking regulatory changes.

This cycle has the potential to be different, Albrecht argued, because it isn’t riding on one rule change. He also acknowledged the danger in stating that “This time is different” given the history of failed proclamations throughout history. “Thus far there have been a handful of regulatory changes during this cycle , and more changes are expected, both as new regulations and also to tighten enforcement of existing regulations where ‘loopholes’ have been exploited. I look for more than a handful of NPRMs in the next couple of quarters,” Albrecht said. NPRMs are Notices of Proposed Rulemakings from the FMCSA.

Changes that have already impacted the market include English Language Proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and cabotage rules already in effect, with a proficiency exam for new-entrant motor carriers advancing through the rulemaking pipeline. FMCSA signaled on July 27 that it is moving forward on new entrant proficiency exam rulemaking. The FMCSA also announced the elimination of self-certification of CDL entities and ELDs. While nearly 8,000 CDL entities have been removed from the system, thousands more could also be removed. In 2019, according to Albrecht, there were approximately 6,000 entities in the TPR (training provider registry) and on November 30, 2025 there were 39,554 and today that number is still above 30,000.

In terms of ELDs, “simply announcing that third party certification will be required is insufficient”, Albrecht said, “and I expect more details later this year or early in 2027 around what the certification process will look like. With approximately 1,000 ELDs in the United States, compared to just 41 in Canada, I believe that once third party certification is in place, that there could eventually be barely 30 approved ELDs in the U.S.”

“Also, when I think about the new entrant spigot, a written exam to show proficiency around hours of service, hazmat driving, what to do in the event of a crash, selected maintenance issues, and other topics, would be an improvement over simply applying for and receiving a DOT number,” Albrecht said.

“Aside from raising the price to obtain a DOT number and requiring more thorough verification of the identity of the new carrier, including authenticating the principal place of business, ownership, multiple DOT and MC numbers, etc.,” Albrecht said, “written exams would demonstrate some start-up knowledge that would obviously need to be accompanied by an onsite audit around the 1-year anniversary of a new motor carrier.”

“However, for a true super-cycle to occur, more needs to be done. If the FMCSA were to stop pursuing changes today, the cycle would be over by late 2027 or early 2028, meaning it would be like all the cycles since the last super cycle over 20 years ago,” Albrecht said. “More needs to be done. Right now, we’re in a boat with numerous holes. We have to plug those holes to improve safety and compliance and to ensure a cycle that lasts more than two years.”

What shippers and carriers are watching

The conference’s motor carrier and shipper panels reinforced the numbers with on-the-ground sentiment. Fleet leaders from Christenson Transportation, Apex Transit Solutions, Crossett Inc., CB Freight, and Excel Trucking described a freight market that’s currently healthy but historically prone to losing steam after 18 to 20 months. The consensus is that this time, structural capacity losses may be permanent.

Shippers on the panel, including representatives from General Mills, Shaw Industries, Simmons Foods, Armada Supply Chain Solutions, and KBX Logistics, said service levels have deteriorated and several are actively rebuilding relationships with small and mid-sized carriers after leaning too hard into mega-carrier capacity. Many expect the gap between spot and contract rates to close by early 2027 and are bracing for double-digit rate increases, even if no one on stage would commit to a number.

The event’s newest addition was a live Q&A with FMCSA Deputy Administrator Jesse Elison, and it gave attendees direct access to the agency shaping that regulatory pipeline, fielding questions on enforcement priorities and the road ahead for commercial motor vehicle safety policy. A new freight brokerage panel on the fallout from the Montgomery Supreme Court ruling, featuring leaders from Backhaul Direct, FreightVana, Steam Logistics, and Axle Logistics, tackled the murkier legal terrain brokers are now navigating. Litigation panelists from The Sloan Firm and Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary noted that with the finer points of “safe carrier” case law still undecided, plaintiff attorneys have little incentive to leave freight brokers out of discovery.

Reliance Partners has now brought shipper representatives to Trucking Matters for three consecutive years, which sets the event apart from other industry gatherings that are built primarily around carriers and brokers.

The 6th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series is set for July 14-15, 2027, back at the Grand Hyatt Nashville.

Learn more at reliancepartners.com.

CMT launches safety platform for freight brokers

Cambridge Mobile Telematics (CMT) has expanded its road safety platform into the freight industry, giving brokers access to recent driving data from participating carriers.

On Sept. 2, the company announced the launch of Freight Safety Intelligence, which analyzes driving behavior from the previous 90 days and generates a carrier-level safety score. CMT said the score is designed to give brokers another way to evaluate carriers before booking freight, while allowing participating carriers to demonstrate recent safety performance.

The platform uses data from carriers’ existing telematics systems rather than requiring them to install new hardware, according to CMT. Carriers have the choice to opt in to the program and they control what specific information they share.

CMT said its analysis of the previous 90 days of driving is used to generate a safety score that has been validated against actual accident risk. The company did not disclose details of the validation methodology in its announcement.

“With CMT’s Freight Safety Intelligence, we can see real safety insights for every carrier before we book, identify the safest carriers, and open more doors for them,” said Brad Bergstrom, CEO of B4 Logistics.

The launch also comes after a recent Supreme Court ruling involving broker responsibility for carrier selection. In May, the court ruled in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC that a lawsuit alleging a broker negligently selected a motor carrier could move forward under state law. The case involved C.H. Robinson and a crash in Illinois. The ruling does not require brokers to use a specific screening system, but it leaves brokers open to negligent-selection claims tied to carrier safety.

The ruling puts additional focus on the information brokers use when deciding which carriers to book, which is especially important as large trucks are involved in thousands of crashes per year.

In 2024, 5,218 large trucks were involved in crashes that resulted in a fatality in the U.S., according to the National Safety Council. That was down 3% from 2023 but up 30% from 2014.

CMT said traditional safety records do not always provide brokers with a current picture of how a carrier is driving.

“Freight brokers need a more current, data-driven view of carrier safety,” said William V. Powers, CEO of CMT. “Freight Safety Intelligence gives freight brokers the most current view of driving safety of the carriers they book.”

The company cited Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data showing that about 94 percent of interstate freight carriers eligible for a federal safety rating did not have one in 2021.

The absence of a federal safety rating does not mean a carrier has been determined to be unsafe. FMCSA safety ratings are issued following certain compliance reviews and can be classified as satisfactory, conditional or unsatisfactory.

Freight brokers already use information such as FMCSA records, insurance status, operating history and other carrier data when evaluating whether to book a shipment. CMT’s platform adds recent driving behavior to those existing sources of information.

Freight Safety Intelligence expands CMT’s existing work with commercial fleets. The company launched its DriveWell Fleet platform earlier this year to provide telematics-based safety information to commercial fleets and insurers.

Why this matters:

Brokers rely on safety records, insurance information, operating history and other data when deciding which carriers to book, but some of that information may not reflect a carrier’s most recent driving behavior. CMT’s platform adds recent telematics data to the carrier-selection process, giving brokers another source of information when evaluating safety performance.

Mexico lifts empty-truck restriction after 700 tractors stranded at border

Mexican customs authorities have lifted a ban on empty commercial trucks entering Mexico through the border crossing in Eagle Pass, Texas.

The ban ended a five-day disruption that stranded hundreds of tractors across the border in the Mexican city of Piedras Negras that forced carriers to scramble to reposition equipment.

Mexico’s National Customs Agency, known as ANAM, reinstated empty-truck crossings from Eagle Pass into Piedras Negras on Monday after imposing the restriction Sept. 9.

The restriction allowed trucks carrying freight to enter Mexico but prohibited empty trailers and tractors operating without trailers from crossing southbound through Piedras Negras. The local customs administration initially said the measure would remain in effect until further notice, according to Periodico La Voz.

By Monday, nearly 700 tractors were reportedly stranded in Eagle Pass without a way to return to Mexico, according to Elías Tarín, president of the Consejo Binacional de Transportistas, according to news outlet Zocalo.

Tarín said the types of permits held by affected Mexican carriers prevented them from simply sending the tractors to another crossing, such as Del Rio, Texas, to return to Mexico, The restriction also caused commercial traffic at the Eagle Pass international bridges to plummet.

Patricia Mancha, international bridge director for the city of Eagle Pass, told the City Council on Monday that commercial traffic had dropped from approximately 1,000 trucks per day to between 300 and 400.

According to WorldCity data, Eagle Pass ranked as the nation’s 10th-largest border crossing in 2025 by trade volume in March and handled $3.77 billion in total trade.

The top commodities imported into Eagle Pass, Texas from Mexico via commercial trucks include commercial delivery trucks, passenger cars, beer, motor vehicle parts, and household appliances like refrigerators, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

On Sept. 8, the day before the restriction took effect, 996 tractor-trailers crossed the city’s international bridges, according to Mancha.

The Piedras Negras-Eagle Pass gateway normally handles about 1,000 commercial vehicles daily, including loaded trucks, empty trailers and tractors operating without trailers.

The disruption also created costs for manufacturers and transportation companies that rely on the crossing.

Alejandro Ruiz Rueda, president of the regional export manufacturing association INDEX, estimated the restriction could have caused logistics losses of as much as $1 million per day.

ANAM has not publicly provided a detailed explanation for why Piedras Negras was targeted by the restriction.

The decision drew concern from transportation companies and customs brokers because empty equipment is a critical part of the cross-border freight cycle. After Mexican trucks deliver international freight into the U.S. border region, tractors and trailers often must return empty to Mexico to pick up another shipment.

CANACAR, Mexico’s national trucking association, warned during the restriction that carriers were facing additional costs, equipment accumulation and uncertainty over their operations.

Industry pressure precedes reversal

The restriction was lifted after transportation industry representatives met Monday with Mexican and U.S. officials to discuss its effects.

Tarín said representatives met with ANAM, U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the Mexican Consulate to explain the risks and consequences of continuing the restriction. Later that day, Piedras Negras customs officials issued a notice saying empty commercial vehicles could once again cross from the United States into Mexico.

The reversal also headed off a possible demonstration by truckers.

Transporters had discussed blocking access to the Piedras Negras commercial crossing Monday to protest the restriction. The planned demonstration was called off after customs authorities restored empty-truck movements.

ANAM’s reopening notice restored normal movements of empty cargo vehicles from Eagle Pass into Piedras Negras on Monday.

Separately, Mexico’s Tax Administration Service and ANAM said this week that an electrical problem affecting government servers caused intermittent outages in the country’s DODA customs-clearance document system Sept. on Monday and Tuesday. Officials said the system was fully restored by 11 a.m. Tuesday and was operating normally as of Wednesday.

That computer outage was separate from the Piedras Negras empty-truck restriction.

Why it matters: Cross-border trucking depends on the rapid repositioning of tractors and trailers, and the restrictions on empty equipment disrupted subsequent loads while loaded trucks remained free to cross the bridge connecting Eagle Pass and Piedras Negras.