The ‘ingenious strategy’ behind most truckers’ least favorite week of the year: International Roadcheck

truck fallen over

International Roadcheck Week is hardly the sexiest topic in trucking, but it is a darn-tootin’ important one. Inspectors in the U.S. and Canada halt tens of thousands of trucks for vehicle inspections for a few days every summer or early fall. They remove thousands of trucks and drivers from the road; in 2021, 16.5% of inspected vehicles were put out of service along with 5.3% of drivers.

It’s uncommon for truck drivers to actually get their vehicles inspected at random during most of the year. To avoid International Roadcheck Week, many truckers simply don’t drive during that period of time — which, presumably, means more unsafe vehicles and drivers on the road outside of the inspection blitz. It’s a question that ate at Andrew Balthrop, a research associate at the University of Arkansas Sam M. Walton College of Business. 

Around 5% fewer one-person trucking companies are active during International Roadcheck Week. But Balthrop and his fellow researcher, Alex Scott of the University of Tennessee, found a major upside to the inspection blitz — even with all the folks who avoid it. According to their working paper published in March 2021, vehicles are safer a month before and after the inspection period. There’s a 1.8% reduction of vehicle violations, according to Balthrop and Scott’s analysis. Surprise inspection blitzes don’t result in the same uptick of compliance. 

I caught up with Balthrop about his research last week at FreightWaves’ Future of Supply Chain conference, and we chatted again on the phone this week about his findings on International Roadcheck Week.

Enjoy a bonus MODES and a lightly edited transcription of our phone interview: 

FREIGHTWAVES: For our readers who are not aware of what Roadcheck Week actually is, can you explain a little bit about what it and why it is important to drivers and companies?

BALTHROP: “The International Roadcheck is part of an alliance between the inspectors in Canada and the ones in Mexico and the U.S. to have a unified framework for making sure trucks are safe to operate. That should make it easier to go across borders when you have this kind of unified structure.

“In the U.S., one of these CVSA inspection blitzes is the International Roadcheck that happens for three days in the summer. Usually it’s a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And usually it’s the first week in June.

“And in it, they focus on Level One inspections, the North American Standard Inspection where they inspect the driver records, the hours of service, the licensure and I believe medical records as well. Then they inspect the truck. It’s an in-depth inspection where the inspector will actually crawl under the truck to look at various things. And these inspections, from the data that I’ve seen, take about a half an hour on average.

“During the Roadcheck Week, they’ll do about 60,000 inspections, so 20,000 a day. They’re going to pull over a lot of trucks, and this can cause a little bit of congestion at the weigh stations and the roadside inspections localities as the inspectors are doing these inspections.”

Roadcheck Week doesn’t catch all truck drivers, but it has a long-lasting benefit to safety

FREIGHTWAVES: So, can most drivers kind of expect to be pulled over? How likely is that?

BALTHROP: “There’s 1 million or 3 million trucks on the road, somewhere around there on any given day. With 20,000 inspections, most drivers still will not get inspected, but there’s going to be a higher proportion of drivers inspected. 

“You’re more likely to get inspected on these days. If you don’t have a recent inspection on your record, or if you have a bad recent inspection on your record, you’re more likely to be pulled over on these days.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Your research focused on that it’s just unusual that this inspection is announced, that it’s planned. We were talking before about how normally, if you’re trying to assure quality or compliance, you would not announce an inspection in advance. It would be more of a surprise-type situation. 

Can you walk us through why that’s so unusual, or what’s the rationale that you see behind announcing it in advance?

BALTHROP: “It is unusual, and on the surface, it doesn’t make much sense, but it turns out to be kind of an ingenious strategy. So I’ll walk through it here. 

“Over the course of a year, there’ll be 2 million inspections of 3 or 4 million trucks out there. The average rate of inspections is pretty low. It’s not uncommon for truckers to go years without having an inspection. With this low inspection intensity, the FMCSA has sort of a problem of, how does it get anybody to abide by the regulations?

“I’m a jaded economist, and I don’t worry or consider too much ethics and morality and all that kind of stuff. It comes down to incentives for drivers to follow these inspections. The incentives do guide behavior. So, how could the FMCSA incentivize drivers to follow these regulations more closely and adhere to the standards?

“They do this by announcing the blitz. This does two things. On one side, it allows everybody to prepare in advance. There’s a bunch of anecdotal evidence out there that people do prepare for these blitzes in advance. They will have their trucks inspected beforehand for any problems. They’ll time maintenance and upkeep in advance to make sure that their vehicles are in order. “They’ll be a little bit more cognizant of the driver-side regulations. One thing we notice in our study is that hours-of-service violations really drop during these extensions, because people see them coming. They don’t fudge the books in any way.”

Owner-operators can evade Roadcheck Week. Big carriers, not so much.

BALTHROP: “The issue with the announcement, on the flip side, is that it allows people to just dodge the inspection entirely. For a long time, people have talked about how owner-operators and smaller carriers time their vacations for this particular time. They could do this for a couple reasons. To avoid the hassle is a nice way to put it, but it also allows you to be noncompliant to avoid the high-intensity inspections.

“You have this balance here that on one side you get the behavior you want with people complying with regulations. That’s the behavior the FMCSA wants. But on the flip side, you get a bunch of people that are kind of outright dodging inspections.

“When you compare these two things on balance, the policy is actually pretty effective because you get a lot of people focused on maintaining their trucks and obeying the rules during that particular week. Especially with the vehicle maintenance stuff, that lasts a long time. 

“In our research, we saw that vehicle violations, a month before and up to a month afterwards, is when you still notice your vehicle violations. That trucks are kind of better maintained around these blitzes.

“The ingenious aspect of it is that the FMCSA, by concentrating their inspection resources all at one time and announcing it, they’re making it clear that they’re serious about enforcing these regulations and everybody prepares for it. For the number of inspections that are happening, you get fewer tickets than you would have otherwise expected.

“The FMCSA, they’re putting people through a little bit of a hassle, but they’re not having to write a bunch of tickets to get people to comply. They’re not really punishing a whole bunch of people because, by making this apparent that this is going to happen, people comply and the FMCSA gets what they want essentially without having to come down on carriers too hard.”

A convenient time for a vacation, indeed

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. And how does this pattern of shutting down, how does that compare for an owner-operator versus a driver for a big fleet?

BALTHROP: “If you’re a motor carrier with thousands of power units, you can’t just pack up and not do business on a particular day. They just don’t have that option. So they get inspected at a higher intensity, and you see the larger carriers kind of more focused on making sure that they’re prepared for these inspections. With so many inspections, the larger carriers are going to be inspected at higher rates. You can really damage your reputation if your equipment isn’t in order on this particular day. 

“Versus the smaller carriers, especially if you’re talking about a single-vehicle fleet, an owner-operator type, it is not that difficult to just not work for those three days. And so you see a lot about that. 

“In terms of what the roadway composition looks like, if we look at inspection data and relative to a typical day with the usual inspections, on these Roadcheck days, you have about 5% fewer owner-operators on the road than you otherwise would expect.”

FREIGHTWAVES: Wow. And when you say owner-operators, you also mean just like fleets with just —

BALTHROP: “One-vehicle fleets.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, that’s interesting.

BALTHROP: “You know, you see a little bit of effect with the smaller fleets, below six vehicles, but it basically disappears by the time you get to a hundred vehicles.

“This effect is being driven by smaller carriers staying off the road in terms of avoidance. You see this goes also how you would expect; it’s also older vehicles that stay off the road. This is correlated with carrier size. The larger carriers use newer vehicles and owner-operators tend to use some of the older vehicles. But it’s particularly the older vehicles that are off the road.

“This makes intuitive sense. Older vehicles are more costly to keep compliant. Maintenance is more costly, and they’ve been around longer so there’s time for more stuff to have broken essentially.

How a truck driver gets stopped for inspection

FREIGHTWAVES: Can you explain a little bit more, the idea of having this inspection history and why it would benefit a larger or small carrier?

BALTHROP: “Getting flagged for inspection is sort of random, but not totally. If somebody notices something obviously wrong with your truck, that’s ground for a more in-depth inspection. Or if you get pulled over for some other reason, this can be grounds for inspection of some type. 

“But there’s also the inspection selection service. The computer program that is random, that it randomly flags people in for inspection, but it’s based on your inspection history.

“So if your firm hasn’t been inspected recently, or if your carrier doesn’t have a very dense inspection history, you’ll be more likely to trigger that system to pull you in and have you inspected. If you have a dense inspection history, you’re less likely to get inspected.”

FREIGHTWAVES: So how do you get pulled over for inspection? As a person who only drives a passenger car, my main interaction with being pulled over is, I’m driving down the freeway or wherever, and I get stopped by the police. How does it work for a truck driver? How does getting pulled over or inspected work in that way?

BALTHROP: “The law is that you cannot pass a weigh station without pulling in and getting weighed. At that point they may flag you to be inspected. Now, in the past decade or two, there’s been a bunch of electronic devices that are installed in cabs. You may have heard of PrePass or Drivewise. This allows you to pass weigh stations. 

“I don’t have data on how many trucks have the in-cab devices. But from a trucking perspective, they’re so convenient that you don’t have to stop every time you cross a state line. I think the vast, overwhelming majority of trucks have some sort of one of these electronic devices. The DOT inspectors at these roadside inspection points have a dial they can twist essentially about how many people they want to inspect. 

“So during the roadcheck inspection week, they’ll crank that dial all the way up and pull everybody over. And if they get too backed up, they might crank it back down a little bit and so on.”

FREIGHTWAVES: OK, interesting. It reminds me of a highly sophisticated E‑ZPass.

A $10 million-plus expense to trucking companies every year … but it’s worth it if just one fatal crash is avoided

FREIGHTWAVES: Zooming out, when we hear about large truck crashes, something like a vehicle maintenance issue is not really the most sexy explanation. But just looking at the FMCSA data, in 29% of all truck crashes, a major factor is brake problems. So it seems like a lot of the truck crashes on the road are caused by vehicle maintenance, versus something like the driver using illegal drugs or some other sort of more dramatic explanation. Can you speak a little bit to why this sort of vehicle maintenance is important for safety in preventing large crashes?

BALTHROP: “We did a little bit of a back-of-the-envelope cost benefit analysis of this. Let me try and make sure I remember it clearly, but we have it in the paper that the cost of this on one side is that you have the compliance costs the firms are undertaking, and then you have to add to that the delay costs from doing this, and then the cost of the inspection itself, having to pay federal inspectors to do this.

“On the benefit side, it reduces crashes. So when we add up, just looking at the cost of what an inspection is, we don’t have a good idea of how to measure the compliance cost. It’d be fun to measure the delay cost, but I don’t have good enough price data on that to get at that cost. 

“But if you look at what the cost of an inspection is, it is something like $100 or $120 is what you would pay to have one of these inspections done privately. A lot of people do this in the run-up to inspections, and have it done privately so that you can fix whatever the problems are and be sure that you would pass the FMCSA inspection.

“With that $120 figure, if you aggregate that up to 60,000 inspections or whatever, and you take that in comparison, I’m going to give you a bad figure here, it’s on the order of $10 million. That is about the value of a statistical human life. Looking at this economically, it’s worthwhile if it saves one human life. If you identify just one faulty brake system that would’ve resulted in an accident, you’re getting some value out of the program. 

“When you add those other costs in there, we’re going to need to save a couple of lives, but in terms of cost benefit analysis with this kind of stuff, we’re usually looking at orders of magnitude differences in cost and benefits to say something for sure. 

“If you can save just a couple lives, this program will pay for itself.”

Time to start inspecting in the winter

FREIGHTWAVES: Then one last question: Is there any rationale for this program happening in the summer? 

BALTHROP: “I think part of it is that for the inspectors this gets much harder and much more miserable to do in winter conditions.”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense.

BALTHROP: “Inspectors are less productive. One of the things that we talk about in the paper, that they have in addition to the International Roadcheck, is that they have Brake Week where they focus a little bit more on brake inspections. You have Operation Safe Driver a little bit later on in the summer, usually in September, where it’s a little bit more focused on passenger vehicles and how they drive around these trucks.

“But there’s not one in the winter time. There’s an unannounced brake check that usually happens in May, a surprise inspection that’s just one day. But you’re right in pointing out that it might be worthwhile having one of these in the wintertime. You have this periodic high-intensity inspection that kind of incentivizes everybody to be compliant through the summer. 

“But there’s nothing in the winter, so that’s an area. But if I was managing the FMCSA, that would be one of the first questions I ask, ‘Why don’t we have one of these in the wintertime?’”

FREIGHTWAVES: That makes sense. Maybe they can do it in the South or something. Maybe a Miami January inspection … 

That’s it for this special bonus MODES. Subscribe here if you’re not already receiving MODES in your inbox every Thursday. Email the reporter at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com with your own tales on International Roadcheck Week or any other trucking topics. 

Why the Northeast is quietly running out of diesel

The nozzle of a diesel fuel pump is inserted into the tank of a commercial truck as its driver looks on the bankground.

The East Coast of the U.S. is reporting its lowest seasonal diesel inventory on record. And some trucking companies appear spooked.

The East Coast typically stores around 62 million barrels of diesel during the month of May, according to Department of Energy data. But as of last Friday, that region of the U.S. is reporting under 52 million barrels. 

The sharp increase of diesel prices has been a major stressor in America’s $800 billion trucking industry since the beginning of 2022. According to DOE figures, the price per gallon of diesel has reached record highs — a whopping $5.62 per gallon. It’s even higher on the East Coast at $5.90, up 63% from the beginning of this year. 

When relief is coming isn’t yet clear, and experts say higher prices are the only way to attract more diesel into the Northeast.

“I wish I had some good news for the Northeast, but it’s bedlam,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told FreightWaves. 

2022 has seen record-setting diesel prices. (SONAR)

Everyday Americans don’t fill up their cars with diesel, but the fuel powers our nation’s agriculture, industrial and transportation networks. More expensive diesel means the price of everything is liable to increase. Trucks, trains, barges and the like consumed about 122 million gallons of diesel per day in 2020

Patrick DeHaan, a vice president of communications at fuel price site GasBuddy, reported that retail truck stops are hauling fuel from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, calling it “extraordinary.” We’ve also seen anecdotal reports from truck drivers posting company memos:

Pilot Flying J and Love’s, two of America’s largest truck stops, told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that they were not planning to restrict diesel purchases, but were monitoring low diesel inventory.

Not unlike every other supply chain crunch we’ve seen in the past few years, the cause of the Northeast’s diesel shortage is multifaceted. A yearslong degradation of refineries is rubbing against the Gulf Coast preferring to ship its oil to Europe and Latin America.

Here’s a breakdown:

1. The East Coast has lost half of its refineries. 

As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote on May 4 (emphasis ours): 

In the past 15 years, the number of refineries on the U.S. East Coast has halved to just seven. The closures have reduced the region’s oil processing capacity to just 818,000 barrels per day, down from 1.64 million barrels per day in 2009. Regional oil demand, however, is stronger.

Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street and writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves that refining is a “thankless industry,” with intense regulations that have limited the opening of new refineries. The Great Recession of 2008 led to several East Coast refineries shuttering, but there have been more recent shutdowns too. One major Philadelphia refinery shuttered in 2019 after a giant fire (and it already had declared bankruptcy), and another refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020.

2. It’s a financial risk to bring diesel to the Northeast.

The Northeast has increasingly relied on diesel from the Gulf region. Much of that diesel travels to the Northeast through the famous and much-adored Colonial Pipeline. You may remember the 5,500-mile pipeline from last year, when a ransomware attack shuttered it for nearly a week!  

It takes 18 days for oil to travel on the Colonial Pipeline from its source in Houston to New York City (or, more specifically, Linden, New Jersey), Kloza said.

That’s a long enough time to prioritize Colonial pipelines financially risky for traders — or, as Kloza said, “incredibly dangerous” — thanks to a concept called “backwardation.”

Backwardation refers to the market condition in which the spot price of a commodity like diesel is higher than its futures price. It’s only gotten stronger over time in the diesel market, Kloza said. So, a company could send off a shipment of diesel and find that it dropped by $1 per gallon in the time the diesel traveled from the Gulf Coast to New York — er, New Jersey. That could mean hundreds of thousands or more in lost profits, so traders often avoid such a fate.

“We’re not in an era where there are any U.S. refiners or big U.S. oil companies who would ‘take one for the team’ and bring cargo in where it’s needed,” Kloza said. 

The desperation is showing in New England and the mid-Atlantic regions. New England diesel retail prices are up 75% from the beginning of 2022, per DOE data. In the mid-Atlantic, diesel is up 67%. 

It’s not worth the risk, even amid ultra-high prices. As FreightWaves’ Kingston reported last week, the spread between a gallon of diesel in the Gulf Coast and its New York harbor price is usually a few cents. Last week, that swung up to 66 cents.

But that uptick still isn’t justifying moving oil to the Northeast — particularly when traders can make so much more money selling diesel abroad. 

3. Of course, we can blame COVID and the crisis in Ukraine. 

The catalyst for this diesel shortage, of course, is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine — particularly Europe’s desperation for diesel after weaning off Russian molecules. 

As CNBC reported in March, Europe is a net importer of diesel. Europe consumed some 6.8 million barrels of diesel each day in 2019; Russia exported some 600,000 barrels per day of that. Today, Europe has only eliminated one-third of its Russian diesel, so prices are expected to continue to climb amid that transition. Latin America, too, has been clammoring for U.S. diesel.

The Gulf Coast has been happy to provide such diesel, amid “insane” prices for diesel abroad, said Johnston. Waterborne exports of diesel from the U.S. Gulf Coast hit record highs last month, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. (The records only date back to 2016.)

Naturally, COVID is also to blame for the Northeast’s run on diesel. Those refineries still retained on the East Coast scaled back during the pandemic due to staffing issues. It takes six months to a year to reignite refineries that were previously shuttered, Kloza said.

The ‘everything shortage’ endures

It’s been a tale as old as, well, last year. An industry is quietly hampered by supply issues for years, or even decades, and COVID pulls back the curtains on its unsteady foundation. It’s particularly jarring for commodities we never thought about before, like shipping containers or pallets, but that quietly underpinned our livelihood all along. 

Recall the Great Lumber Shortage of 2020? Big Lumber had unusually low stockpiles of wood by the summer of 2020, thanks to a vicious 2019 in the lumber industry shuttering sawmills and the spring of 2020 sparking staffing issues. (There was also a nasty beetle infestation.) Those in lumber expected the pandemic to slow the economy, not ignite online shopping, construction and housing mania. It meant lumber went from around $350 per thousand board feet pre-pandemic to a crushing $1,515 by the spring of 2021. The lumber price roller coaster persists today.  

In diesel, there’s no beetle infestation, but there are plenty of other headaches. It all means higher fuel prices on the East Coast, particularly the Northeast, to lure molecules from the Gulf Coast. And, down the line, probably more expensive stuff for you. 

Do you work in the trucking industry? Do you want to say that you hate or love MODES? Are you simply wanting to chitchat? Email the author at rpremack@www.freightwaves.com, and don’t forget to subscribe to MODES.

Updated on May 13 with the latest comments from truck stops.

Exclusive: Central Freight Lines to shut down after 96 years

Nearly, 2,100 employees will be laid off right before Christmas. Central Freight Lines is the largest trucking company to close since Celadon ceased operations in 2019.


Waco, Texas-based Central Freight Lines has notified drivers, employees and customers that the less-than-truckload carrier plans to wind down operations on Monday after 96 years, the company’s president told FreightWaves on Saturday.

“It’s just horrible,” said CFL President Bruce Kalem.

A source close to CFL told FreightWaves that CFL had “too much debt and too many unpaid bills” to continue operating, despite exploring all available options to keep its doors open.

Kalem agreed.

“Years of operating losses and struggles for many years sapped our liquidity, and we had no other place to go at this point,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “Nobody is going to make money on this closing, nobody.” 

Central Freight will cease picking up new shipments effective Monday and expects to deliver substantially all freight in its system by Dec. 20, according to a company statement.

A source familiar with the company said he is unsure whether CFL will file Chapter 7 or “liquidate outside of bankruptcy,” but that the LTL carrier has no plans to reorganize.

The company reshuffled its executive team nearly a year ago in an effort to stay afloat, including adding the company’s owner, Jerry Moyes, as CFL’s interim president and chief executive officer. Moyes remained CEO after Kalem was elevated to president in July.

“I think it was surprising that there wasn’t a buyer for the entire company, but buyers were interested in certain pieces but not in the whole thing,” the source, who didn’t want to be identified, told FreightWaves. “Part of it could have been that just the network was so expansive that there was too much overlap with some of the buyers that they didn’t need locations or employees in the places where they already had strong operations.”

Third-party logistics provider GlobalTranz notified its customers that it had removed CFL as “a blanket and CSP carrier option immediately, to prevent any new bookings,” multiple sources told FreightWaves on Saturday.

CFL, which has over 2,100 employees, including 1,325 drivers, and 1,600 power units, is in discussions with “key customers and vendors and expects sufficient liquidity to complete deliveries over the next week in an orderly manner,” a CFL spokesperson said. Approximately 820 employees are based at the company headquarters in Waco.

Despite diligent efforts, CFL “was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization,” another source familiar with the company told FreightWaves.

Kalem said the company had 65 terminals prior to its decision to shutter operations. 

FreightWaves received a tip from a source nearly two weeks ago that CFL wasn’t renewing its East Coast terminal leases but was unable to confirm the information with CFL executives. 

Another source told FreightWaves that some of the LTL carrier’s West Coast terminals had been sold recently, but that no reason was given for the transactions.

At that time, Kalem said the company was “working to find alternatives” and couldn’t speak because of nondisclosure agreements. He said executives at CFL, including Moyes, were trying to do everything to “save the company.”

“Jerry [Moyes] pumped a lot of money into the company, but it just wasn’t enough,” Kalem said.

Kalem said he’s aware that a large carrier is interested in hiring many of CFL’s drivers but isn’t able to name names at this point. 

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment,” the company said in a statement. “Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area.”

As of late Saturday night, Kalem said fuel cards are working and drivers will be paid for freight they’ve hauled for the LTL carrier until all freight is delivered by the Dec. 20 target date.

“I’m going to work feverishly with the time I have left to get these good people jobs — I owe it to them,” Kalem told FreightWaves. “We are going to pay our drivers — that’s why we had to close it like we’re doing now. We are going to deliver all of the freight that’s in our system by next week, and we believe we can do that.”

During the outset of the pandemic, Central Freight Lines was one of four trucking-related companies that received the maximum award of $10 million through the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). This occurred around the time that CFL drivers and employees were forced to take pay cuts, a move that didn’t go over well with drivers.

“It all went to payroll,” Kalem said about the PPP funds. “Yes, our employees and drivers did take a pay cut over the past few years, and we gave most of it back, even raised pay over the past several months, but it just wasn’t enough to attract drivers.”

FreightWaves staffers Todd Maiden, Timothy Dooner and JP Hampstead contributed to this report.


Watch: Central Freight Lines’ impact on the LTL market


FreightWaves CEO and founder Craig Fuller reacts to the Central Freight Lines news:

“With Central struggling for many years and unable to reach profitability, it makes sense that they would want to liquidate while equipment and real estate are fetching record prices.”


Central Freight Lines statement

Here is the statement given by Central Freight Lines to FreightWaves late Saturday after reports surfaced of its impending closure:

“We make this announcement with a heavy heart and extreme regret that the Company cannot continue after nearly 100 years in operation. We would like to thank our outstanding workforce for persevering and for professionally completing the wind-down while supporting each other. Additionally, we thank our customers, vendors, equipment providers, and other stakeholders for their loyalty and support.

“The Company explored all available options to keep operations going. However, operating losses sapped all remaining sources of liquidity, and the Company’s liabilities far exceed its assets, all of which are subject to liens in favor of multiple creditors. Despite diligent efforts, the Company was unable to gain commitments to fund ongoing operations, find a buyer of the entire business, or fund a Chapter 11 reorganization. Given its limited remaining resources, the Company concluded that the best alternative was a safe and orderly wind-down. As we complete the wind-down process, our primary goal will be to offer the smoothest possible transition for all stakeholders while maximizing the amount available to apply toward the Company’s obligations.

“Central Freight is in negotiations to sell a substantial portion of its equipment. Additionally, Central Freight is coordinating with other regional LTL carriers to afford its employees opportunities to apply for other LTL jobs in their area. Discussions are ongoing and no purchase of assets or offer of employment is guaranteed.”


Brief history of Central Freight Lines

1925Founded in Waco, Texas, by Woody Callan Sr.
1927Institutes regular routes in Texas between Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin.
1938Dallas facility opens as world’s largest freight facility.
1991Receives 48-state interstate operating authority, expands into Oklahoma.
1993Joins Roadway Regional Group and begins service in Louisiana.
1994Expands into Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Mississippi.
1995Consolidation of Central, Coles, Spartan and Viking Freight Systems into Viking Freight Inc. is announced. Central’s Waco corporate HQ starts closure.
1996Becomes the Southwestern Division of Viking Freight Inc.
1997Investment group led by senior Central management purchases assets of former CFL from Viking Freight and reopens as a new Central Freight Lines.
1999Expands into California and Nevada.
2009CFL Network provides service to Idaho, Utah, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
2013Acquires Circle Delivery of Tennessee.
2014Acquires DTI, a Georgia LTL carrier.
2017Acquires Wilson; new division created with an increase of 80 terminals.
2020Wins Carrier of the Year from GlobalTranz.
Acquires Volunteer Express Inc. of Dresden, Tennessee.
Source: Central Freight Lines

Warehouse cramming is about to begin — Freightonomics

nVision Global, is a leading Global Freight Audit, Supply Chain Management Services company offering enterprise-wide supply chain solutions. With over 4,000 global business “Partners”, nVision Global not only provides prompt, accurate Freight Audit Solutions, but also providing industry-leading Supply Chain Information Management solutions and services necessary to help its clients maximize efficiencies within their supply chain. To learn more, visit www.nvisionglobal.com

Warehouse space is at a premium right now and with peak season right around the corner, shippers are starting to scramble for space. 

Zach Strickland and Anthony Smith look into what shippers are doing to prepare for the end-of-year crunch. They welcome Zac Rogers from Colorado State University to the show to talk through the industry tightness. 

The three also talk about the latest Logistics Managers Index results and what they mean for the fourth quarter of 2021. 

You can find more Freightonomics episodes and recaps for all our live podcasts here.

Seasonality pushing rejections and rates higher ahead of the Fourth

This week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 75 (Carriers)

Last week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 70 (Carriers) 

Three-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 70 (Carriers)

The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for rates between shippers and carriers. 

The Pricing Power Index is based on the following indicators:

Load volumes: Absolute levels positive for carriers, momentum neutral

The Outbound Tender Volume Index at 15,980 is nominally higher now than basically at any point in the past 12 months with the exception of the week prior to Thanksgiving/Black Friday last year. OTVI captures all electronic tenders, including rejected ones, so when accounting for the rejection rate, we can get an even more accurate look at volumes. 

OTVI rose through the back half of May into the national holiday and has risen even further since. Throughout the back half of May and into the middle of June, tender rejections declined substantially. Meaning, current volume throughput is actually understated when comparing OTVI now to OTVI in November 2020. After adjusting for rejected tenders, the accepted outbound tender volume index is just 2.2% below the 2020 peak in November. At that time, OTVI surged towards 17,000, but the rejection rate moved in-kind towards its natural ceiling of 28%. So, the total accepted freight tenders in mid-June is comparable to the peakiest of peak seasons in 2020. Incredible. 

However, since the middle of June, tender rejections have begun increasing again heading into Independence Day, a time when many drivers spend time off the road with their families. The move higher in OTVI this week has been driven primarily by higher rejection rates, rather than higher freight demand. 

Over the past month, the drivers of freight volumes have continued to be imports and from just about every port. The west coast continues to provide seemingly non-stop container ships, while Houston, New Orleans, Miami and Savannah are seeing very strong throughput as well. 

It is van volumes that are driving freight markets higher right now. The Reefer Outbound Tender Volume index has tumbled 25% since its all-time high in the weeks after the polar vortex in February. Since Memorial Day, ROTVI has fallen another 10.5%. This is likely a factor of declining grocery demand, but I would expect the trend to reverse course in the near future as summer festivities accelerate. 

Dry van volumes pushed higher in the back half of May and into June while reefer volumes have declined significantly. 

SONAR: VOTVI.USA (Blue); ROTVI.USA (Green)

The congestion at our nation’s ports has spread from Los Angeles and Long Beach to Oakland, California. The California coastline is a parking lot of container ships, most of which are full to the brim with imports, awaiting berth. As detailed in the economic section, there are some signs that the reversion is underway with Americans paring back spending on pandemic superstar categories in favor of airlines, lodging and entertainment. But spending remains strong despite the moderation, and low inventory levels offset much of the decline that will occur from slowing demand. Real inventories are 3% higher now than pre-pandemic, but real sales growth is far outpacing inventory growth, leading to the lowest inventory-to-sales ratio in decades. 

On the manufacturing side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded in May after declining in April. We’ve been in expansionary territory for 12 consecutive months. New orders, production, imports/exports and employment are all growing. The major issues should come as no surprise: Deliveries are slowing, backlogs are growing and inventories are too low. 

In all, there are many, many catalysts to keep freight demand strong for the foreseeable future. Americans are traveling and spending on services at a high clip, but the high savings rate is enabling it to occur without a massive detriment to goods spending. 

SONAR: OTVI.USA (2021 Blue; 2020 Green; 2019 Orange; 2018  Purple)

Tender rejections: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

After declining steadily from mid-March to mid-May, the Outbound Tender Reject Index has reversed course heading into Independence Day. This is typical for a national holiday as carriers selectively choose loads to bring drivers closer to home. OTRI now sits above 25% for the first time in June. 

One of our newest indices in SONAR gives us the ability to compare markets on as close to an apples-to-apples basis as possible. FreightWaves’ Carrier Trend Market Score indices are divided into two perspectives – shipper/broker and carrier. The scores are positioned on a scale from 1-100 and have values measuring van and refrigerated (reefer) capacity. The higher values represent more favorable trends for whichever perspective. For instance, a value near the high-end of the range would suggest very favorable conditions for carriers in our carrier capacity trend score index. 

For the past several weeks, capacity disparities have been driven by import volumes. The markets with the tightest carrier capacity coincide with the nation’s busiest ports. Ontario, California, Savannah, Georgia, and Atlanta all have carrier capacity trend market scores of 100. 

SONAR: Capacity Trend Market Score (Carriers – VAN)

By mode. Reefer rejection rates tumbled from it’s all-time high in March to under 35% in mid-June before popping higher over the past two weeks. Reefer rejections are still quite high from a historical standpoint at 38%, but are significantly lower than just three months ago when reefer carriers were rejecting half of all electronically tendered loads. 

SONAR: VOTRI.USA (Blue); ROTRI.USA (Orange)

Dry van tenders make up the majority of all tenders, so the van rejection rate mirrors the aggregate index closely. Van rejections have surged from ~23% to ~26% over the past two weeks. 

Yes, one-in-four loads being rejected is not ideal, but it’s better than 30%. I am unaware of any meaningful signals that capacity is being added at a rate that would change my outlook. With so many catalysts for demand, and many constraints on drivers including the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse, driver training school closures and continued government unemployment benefits, the outlook is tight throughout this year and into 2022. That’s not to say we won’t see improvement as consumers revert to pre-pandemic spending habits and drivers enter or reenter the market. But I’m not expecting any quick reversal of this environment; there are simply too many catalysts driving volume and suppressing capacity. 

SONAR: OTRI.USA (2020/21 Blue; 2020 Green; 2019 Orange)

Freight rates: Absolute level and momentum positive for carriers

Throughout June, spot rates have moderated while contract rates have pushed higher. The Truckstop.com dry van rate per mile (incl. fuel) has fallen from $3.21 to $3.11 since the beginning of June, while FreightWaves van contract rates have risen from $2.50 to $2.59/mile, exclusive of fuel. 

I still believe the Truckstop.com dry van national average will not retest the post-vortex surge pricing that brought spot rates up to an all-time high of $3.30. But, there aren’t many catalysts to bring spot rates down anytime soon either. Demand is unwavering with continued strong consumer goods demand, humming industrial recovery and a potentially cooling, yet still sizzling, hot housing market. And carriers can’t fill enough trucks to keep up with demand. 

Prior to the seasonal movements we’re seeing in tender rejections, routing guides generally had been improving through Q2. We should continue to see a convergence between spot and contract rates, but spot rates will remain historically very elevated throughout the summer as demand simply outstrips capacity. 

SONAR: TSTOPVRPM.USA (Blue); VCRPM1.USA (Green)  

Economic stats: Momentum and absolute level neutral

Several economic releases this week are worth noting.

Weekly jobless claims were released Thursday and give us one of the best close-to-real-time indicators of the overall economy.  This week, the data was again very promising as the labor market continues on a bumpy but trajectorially stable recovery path. 

First-time filings totaled 411,000 for the week ended June 19, a slight decrease from the previous total of 418,000 but worse than the 380,000 Dow Jones estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims have held above 400,000 for consecutive weeks after falling to a pandemic low of 374,000 three weeks ago. As things stand, the current level of initial claims is about double where it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The good news on the jobs front is that continuing claims are on the decline, falling to 3.39 million, a drop of 144,000. That number runs a week behind the headline claims total.

Initial jobless claims (weekly in May 2020-May 2021)

At the time of writing, the newest weekly data for the week ending May 29 had not been updated in SONAR. This week, claims fell from 405,000 to 385,000. 

SONAR: IJC.USA

Consumer. Turning to consumer spending, as measured by Bank of America weekly card (both debit and credit) spending data, total card spending (TCS) in the latest week accelerated to 22% over 2019. This is the first time in June that TCS has topped 20% over 2019, but spending has been running up 16-19% consistently on a two-year comp for months. For contect, the average pre-pandemic two-year growth rate was about 8% (from 2012 to 2019). 

The Bank of America team highlighted service spending in the nation’s two largest state economies, California and New York, which are now fully reopened. Spending at restaurants is now well above 2019 in both states, and the team believes there is more capacity for spending to accelerate in the states that were slower to reopen given pent-up demand. 

There was also a notable acceleration in spending on clothing this week, according to Bank of America. It could be a reversal from some softening in the early weeks of June, or an indication of people refreshing wardrobes ahead of a return to work, more travel and vacations. One tepid statement for freight markets from this week;s report: Leisure spending is on the rise and durable goods spending is flatlining.  

FreightWaves’ Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index, both a measure of relative demand and capacity, moves directionally with the ISM PMI. 

SONAR: ISM.PMI (Blue); FOTRI.USA (Green) 

Manufacturing. Over the past two weeks, regional manufacturing surveys have reported generally positive readings amid logistical challenges. The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index declined 6.9 points to 17.4 in June, retreating from strong readings the past two months. The Empire State Index is a diffusion index with a baseline of zero; any reading above zero indicates improving or expansionary conditions. 

Delivery times lengthened to a new record during the month, new orders and shipments fell, and inventories entered negative territory. The supply chain and transportation challenges are as visible upstream as downstream, but overall the manufacturing sector is handling. Growth continued throughout the second quarter in both the Empire State and Philly Fed indices. 

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business activity index edged lower to a still robust 30.7 in June from 31.5 in the prior month. Unlike NY, the pace of shipments growth accelerated in the Philly region during June. The employment subcomponent rose to a very healthy 30.7 from 19.3 last month, the regional bank said. 

Record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy, but demand remains strong. 

For more information on the FreightWaves Freight Intel Group, please contact Kevin Hill at khill@www.freightwaves.com or Andrew Cox at acox@www.freightwaves.com.

Check out the newest episodes of our podcast, Great Quarter, Guys, here.

Project44 acquires ClearMetal to strengthen predictive tools

Project44, a leader in real-time visibility of the global supply chain, announced on Thursday it has acquired ClearMetal, a San Francisco-based supply chain planning software company that focuses on international freight visibility, predictive planning and overall customer experience. The terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.

ClearMetal, founded by top software engineers and data scientists from Stanford, Google and other Silicon Valley elites, has created a “continuous delivery experience” that leverages proprietary machine learning algorithms that can forecast supply chain disruptions. 

In an interview, Jason Duboe, chief growth officer at project44, explained that bringing in ClearMetal’s elite team is essential for the company’s future predictive solutions.

“Their team construct is fundamentally different. When you look at their data science, machine learning and computer science background, they are best in class,” he said. “Applying the team to solve really interesting challenges, starting with highly predictive ETA and deeper exception management to create more predictive analytics is really a key component here.”

Project44 recently acquired Ocean Insights to gain global supply chain vessel visibility and has announced it has expanded its truckload tracking services within Asia. Bringing on this new team of engineers will allow the company to capitalize on strong predictive tools, strengthening the supply chain of its customers.

“We’re going to be expanding deeper into Asia, and from a port perspective, getting data much earlier than competitors,” explained Duboe. “Our freight forwarder integrations will give us much deeper visibility from an end-to-end perspective in these regions.”

Along with the acquired skills the ClearMetal team will bring to project44, it brings a large book of customers, including large CPGs, retailers, manufacturers, distributors and chemical companies. These advanced use cases will strengthen the predictive planning tools, and project44 continues to expand into different customer markets.

“What we gain from ClearMetal is a holistic platform for anybody that joins the platform in the future,” said Duboe. “They have large customers with incredibly demanding and advanced use cases. So when it comes to order and inventory, functionality, supplier onboarding, and moving upstream into those processes, we can capture exceptions earlier on.”

Click here for more articles by Grace Sharkey.

Related Articles:

Project44 expands real-time visibility into China

Project44 reels in Ocean Insights in ‘largest acquisition in visibility space’

‘Project44’s vision has always been global’

Judge gives UPS green light for $150,000 buyouts to drivers

A brown UPS van is on a street next to a large side of a warehouse.

A federal judge on Friday dismissed a Teamsters request to prohibit United Parcel Service from implementing a $150,000 buyout program for parcel delivery drivers, saying that union claims of harm were unfounded because arbitration can resolve any problems and that workers will be subject to involuntary layoffs if some don’t voluntarily leave the company.

The decision means UPS is likely to begin informing employees next week about the voluntary separation program. 

UPS (NYSE: UPS) is restructuring its delivery network and says it needs fewer drivers because of shrinking volumes. A Teamsters lawyer said during a hearing on Thursday that the union expects 10,000 drivers to accept UPS’s offer, Reuters reported from the courthouse

Courts are typically prohibited from issuing injunctions in peaceful labor disputes where arbitration is an approved method of dispute resolution. Judge Denise Casper of the U.S. District Court in Massachusetts ruled an arbitrator would still have power to reinstate any employees under any separation arrangement that is ruled improper and noted that the union will be harmed more if UPS opts to only reduce the workforce through layoffs and attrition.

“The union has failed to show that it will suffer irreparable harm in the absence of an injunction,” Casper wrote.

The Teamsters union argued in its Feb. 8 petition that UPS’s planned voluntary separation program violates the national master agreement because it wasn’t negotiated with the union and reverses hiring commitments. It also complained that any potential remedy ordered by an arbitrator under the contract’s arbitration process won’t apply to workers who have accepted a lump sum payment and resigned. Under the separation package, drivers agree not to seek employment again with UPS.

The parcel logistics giant telegraphed on its earnings call in late January that it planned to eliminate another 30,000 frontline positions this year, including through a second driver buyout program, and shutter two dozen facilities. Average daily volume declined 8.6% in 2025 and was down 10.8% year over year in the fourth quarter. Demand is under pressure as e-commerce growth normalizes following the pandemic, Amazon draws down business under a mutual agreement and UPS begins to outsource certain economy shipments to the U.S. Postal Service. 

UPS says intent of the buyout program is to reduce the number of drivers that could be released through layoffs, according to court documents. 

UPS plans to extend its Driver Choice program to 105,000 drivers regardless of seniority, offering a $150,000 lump sum payment plus previously earned benefits in exchange for resigning. Drivers who accept the offer must commit to never work for UPS again and to waive their rights to union representation in the event grievances arise over execution of the agreement. 

The new program is much more lucrative than the first buyout program last fall, which provided $1,800 in severance pay per year of service, with a $10,000 minimum, to eligible drivers. Only 3,000 drivers accepted the offer, according to UPS’s legal filing. 

UPS initially planned to provide information about Driver Choice on Feb. 11, but agreed to hold off moving forward until the judge ruled on whether to issue an injunction. Voluntary separations are scheduled to begin at the end of April. 

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

Write to Eric Kulisch at ekulisch@freightwaves.com.

FedEx ‘highly confident’ grounded MD-11s will return to service

UPS identifies 22 package facilities for closure

UPS challenges Teamsters suit over $150,000 driver buyouts

Teamsters union sues UPS to block delivery driver buyouts

Why the Wheels of Trucking Reform Don’t Turn as Fast as Your Timeline

Executive orders, rulemakings, legislation, and court challenges all operate on different timelines with different powers and different guardrails. Yesterday’s historic Duffy-Barrs press conference was the biggest enforcement announcement in a generation, and it still has to survive the process. Here’s why, and what comes next.

It happens every single day. In the comments. In the DMs. On X. On LinkedIn. Somebody tags the Secretary of Transportation or the FMCSA administrator or a member of Congress and demands that they close every CDL mill in America by Friday, remove every non-domiciled driver from the highway by Monday, mandate English proficiency testing at every weigh station, and fix 40 years of regulatory neglect before the next news cycle.

The frustration is understandable. So is the impatience. But this is a government, not a sedan; you cannot just turn the wheel and expect it to change direction at 70 miles an hour. There are branches. There are processes. There are legal guardrails that exist for a reason. Miss that, and a lot of energy gets wasted being angry at the wrong people for the wrong reasons while the people who actually caused this mess sit in a conference room advising the government on what to do next.

On February 20, 2026, Secretary Sean Duffy and FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs stood at a podium in Washington and delivered the most aggressive enforcement announcement the trucking industry has seen in a generation. Yesterday was not the finish line; it was the opening bell for a process that still has years to run. And if history is any guide, the legal challenges are already being drafted.

What follows is a breakdown of what was announced, why even historic action takes longer than a news cycle, and what is coming next, and when.

“Yesterday’s announcement was historic. It was also the beginning, not the end. The process doesn’t stop because the press conference happened.”

WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY: The February 20 Announcement, By the Numbers

In a joint press conference at DOT headquarters, Secretary Duffy and Administrator Barrs outlined a sweeping enforcement action and a set of forthcoming rulemakings that represent the most comprehensive trucking safety initiative in at least a decade. Here is what was announced.

The CDL Mill Sting Operation

Over five days, FMCSA mobilized more than 300 investigators across all 50 states to conduct over 1,400 on-site inspections of driver training providers. The results were not subtle:

448  CDL training providers issued notices of proposed removal from the Training Provider Registry

109  schools voluntarily removed themselves upon learning that investigators were coming

557  total CDL training programs removed or facing removal

97  additional providers are still under active investigation

The violations ranged from unqualified instructors who did not hold the correct licenses to operate the vehicles they were teaching students to drive, to improper vehicles that did not match the type of training being offered, to fake addresses, and to schools that existed on paper but not on the ground. One school that was removed had been training school bus drivers.

DUFFY: “For too long, the trucking industry has operated like the Wild, Wild West, where anything goes, and nobody asks any questions.”

BARRS: “If a school isn’t using the right vehicles or if their instructors aren’t qualified, they have no business training the next generation of truckers or school bus drivers.”

The Forthcoming Rulemakings

Beyond the enforcement action on CDL schools, Duffy and Barrs announced a package of regulatory proposals that, when finalized, would represent a fundamental restructuring of how motor carriers enter and are monitored in the federal system. These are proposals, not final rules. That distinction is everything, and we’ll return to it. But here is what is on the table:

Ending self-certification for entry-level driver training schools. The current self-certification model created the CDL mill explosion. Schools entered the Training Provider Registry with minimal verification and no real accountability until they were caught. The proposed rule would require active verification before a school can be listed, not after the damage is done.

Revamping Motus, the new federal motor carrier registration system, into a rigorous identity verification and matching platform. Motus is already in soft launch for supporting companies. Duffy and Barrs want it weaponized against chameleon carriers, entities that cycle through DOT numbers to evade enforcement. The administration’s goal is to tie DOT numbers to verified individuals, not legal fictions.

DUFFY: “One individual can get 100 different DOT numbers. We want to make sure that the DOT number is connected to an actual individual.”

Enhanced procedures for suspending or revoking federal approval for noncompliant carriers or schools. The current process for pulling a carrier’s authority is cumbersome. The proposal would create faster off-ramps for enforcement action.

Requiring state motor vehicle departments to conduct all CDL testing. This is a significant structural change. Currently, third-party examiners, including, in some states, the training schools themselves, can administer CDL skills tests. That conflict of interest is a primary driver of fraudulent licensing. Moving testing exclusively to state MVDs eliminates the foxes from the henhouse.

Adding qualification and testing requirements for brokers during registration. Brokers have largely operated under an honor system. A baseline competency requirement at the registration stage would represent the first meaningful gatekeeping in the history of broker licensing.

Sharper verification of the principal place of business using AI tools. DOT announced it would use artificial intelligence to verify that carriers maintain actual physical addresses, not P.O. boxes, UPS Stores, or virtual offices. The regulation already prohibits those arrangements. What has been missing is the detection. The AI component is new, and in the context of hundreds of entities sharing one small building at a single address, it cannot arrive soon enough.

The Non-Dom and ELP Scorecard

Barrs confirmed that approximately 14,000 truck drivers have been placed out of service for English Language Proficiency violations since the administration reinstated enforcement last year. The non-domiciled CDL final rule, published February 13, takes effect March 15 and is expected to affect approximately 194,000 non-domiciled CDL holders. The administration also confirmed that $160 million in federal highway funds has been withheld from California for failing to cancel over 17,000 illegally issued CDLs by the agreed-upon deadline. New York faces similar pressure. Duffy gave California a ‘kudos’ for beginning to enforce English language requirements once the funding threat became real.

THE PROCESS: Why Announcements Are Not Laws and Laws Are Not Enforcement

Now that the announcement is on the record, the more important question is what it means for the timeline and legal durability. The reaction on social media to a press conference like yesterday’s invariably splits into two equally wrong camps: those who think everything just got fixed, and those who dismiss it as political theater that will never result in action. The truth requires understanding how the federal government actually works.

The org chart 

There are three levels of federal authority that matter for trucking regulation, and they do not have the same powers. The President of the United States can issue executive orders, sign legislation, nominate agency heads, and set policy direction. What the president cannot do is write regulations unilaterally. Executive orders direct federal agencies to take action within their existing statutory authority. They do not create new law.

Below the president sits the Secretary of Transportation, currently Sean Duffy. The secretary can direct policy, issue departmental orders, allocate enforcement resources, and champion specific regulatory changes. What the secretary cannot do is write federal regulations without going through the rulemaking process established by the Administrative Procedure Act.

Below the secretary sits the FMCSA Administrator, currently Derek Barrs. The administrator runs day-to-day operations, oversees compliance reviews, directs field enforcement, and shepherds rulemakings through the federal process. What the administrator cannot do is snap his fingers and create a new regulation. He has to follow the process. And the process is slow by design.

The process that drives everyone crazy

The Administrative Procedure Act of 1946 governs how federal agencies create regulations. It requires transparency, public participation, and judicial review. Whether that’s a feature or a bug depends on whether the proposed regulation helps or harms you. But it is the law, and it applies to FMCSA the same way it applies to the EPA, the FDA, and every other federal agency.

The standard rulemaking cycle: the agency publishes an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to gather input on whether a rule is needed. Then it publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking with the proposed regulatory text, a cost-benefit analysis, and a 60- to 90-day comment period. Every substantive comment must be reviewed and addressed. Then the agency publishes a final rule, which typically takes effect 30 to 60 days later. Then, anyone who participated in the comment process can challenge the final rule in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. If the court finds the agency skipped steps, ignored significant objections, or exceeded its authority, the rule gets vacated. Back to zero.

From ANPRM to enforceable final rule, a typical FMCSA regulation takes three to seven years. The ELD mandate took over a decade. The safety fitness determination rule has been in various stages of rulemaking since the 1990s. The speed limiter rule was first proposed in 2016 and still has not been finalized. This is not because FMCSA is lazy. This is because the process exists, takes time, and is deliberately built that way.

THE KEY DISTINCTION:  Actions that enforce existing rules can move fast. Actions that create new rules cannot. Everything announced yesterday falls into one or both of those categories , and which one determines when the industry will actually feel it.

What can move fast, and what cannot

The CDL mill enforcement action announced yesterday, the 1,400 sting operations, and the 557 schools removed or facing removal happened within the agency’s existing authority. FMCSA had the power to conduct those investigations. No new rule was required. Those schools got caught because investigators showed up. That is the enforcement of existing regulations, and it moved in five days.

The proposed rulemakings Duffy and Barrs described are a different animal. Ending self-certification, restructuring CDL testing through state MVDs, adding broker qualification requirements, and creating identity verification mandates for carrier registration, those are new regulatory requirements. They require NPRMs. They require comment periods. They require final rules. They require time, and they are vulnerable to challenge.

The English Language Proficiency enforcement is also instructive. ELP has been a federal requirement since 49 CFR 391.11(b)(2) was written. The Obama administration issued guidance in 2016 that effectively neutered enforcement of an existing rule. President Trump’s executive order directed the agency to rescind that guidance and reinstate enforcement. That happened within 60 days because it was not a new regulation; it was a direction to enforce an existing one. Those 14,000 out-of-service actions Barrs cited are the direct result of that distinction.

“Enforcement of existing rules moves at the speed of political will. New rules move at the speed of the Administrative Procedure Act. Know which one you’re watching.”

THE CASE STUDY: How the Non-Dom CDL Rule Became the Perfect Illustration of Why Process Matters

For anyone who wants to understand why every major announcement out of Washington should be followed by the question ‘and then what?’, study the non-domiciled CDL rule. It is the clearest case study available of the consequences of urgency overriding methodology.

FMCSA had legitimate safety concerns. Annual program reviews found widespread non-compliance among state licensing agencies. California alone had an improper issuance rate of 25%. The agency identified 17 fatal crashes in 2025 involving non-domiciled CDL holders whose fitness could not be verified through existing databases. The concern was real. The data was real. The dead were real.

FMCSA issued an emergency interim final rule that skipped the standard notice-and-comment period and the state consultation required by the Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act. A coalition of unions and individual drivers challenged the rule in the D.C. Circuit. The court found the petitioners would likely succeed on the claim that FMCSA improperly issued the rule without consulting the states. The rule was stayed within six weeks of issuance.

Rather than litigate, the FMCSA filed for abeyance and returned to do it properly. The agency published a final rule on February 13, 2026, incorporating responses to 8,010 public comments. That rule takes effect March 15. And one day after publication, a new petition for review was filed in the D.C. Circuit by the same coalition.

THE LESSON: Even when the safety justification is strong, skipping the process does not save time. It costs time. The shortcut became the long way around, and the legal fight continues.

The same dynamic should be expected with yesterday’s announcements. The proposed rulemakings will be challenged. The CDL school removals will face administrative appeals. The broker qualification requirements will generate industry pushback during the comment period. The state testing mandate will surface Tenth Amendment questions about federal intrusion into state licensing authority. None of that makes these rules wrong. It makes them subject to the same process that everything else goes through, and the people in that process who benefit from the status quo are very good at using it.

THE LEGISLATIVE LANE: What Only Congress Can Fix

Federal agencies can only regulate within the authority Congress gives them. And some of the most glaring problems in trucking cannot be fixed by FMCSA rulemaking because Congress has not granted the authority, or because the problem is baked into statute.

The minimum liability insurance level for a commercial motor carrier has been $750,000 since 1980. When that number was set, a loaded tractor-trailer cost a fraction of what it costs today, and medical costs were a fraction of what they are today. FMCSA cannot raise that minimum through rulemaking. It is set by statute. Only Congress can change it. Every piece of evidence in the industry, every case involving catastrophic underinsurance, every compliance review where the insurer behind a chameleon carrier had a greater financial stake in keeping the carrier operating than in underwriting its risk, points to insurance reform as essential. And insurance reform requires a bill, a committee, a floor vote, and a signature.

The chameleon carrier problem, which Duffy and Barrs specifically addressed yesterday, is being partially addressed through the SAFE Act currently moving through Congress. That bill has ATA support and bipartisan appeal. It also has to survive the legislative gauntlet. Representative Harriet Hageman’s bill does important work. Whether it survives to signature is a separate question.

The interplay between Congress and the agencies is what makes the timeline even longer. Congress passes a law directing FMCSA to do something. FMCSA then has to issue a rulemaking to implement the Congressional directive. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law directed FMCSA and NHTSA to issue a rule requiring automatic emergency braking on heavy trucks in 2021. As of February 2026, the AEB rule is still in the supplemental proposed rulemaking stage. Five years after the Congressional mandate, still no final rule. That is not unusual. That is normal.

THE ADVISORY CLASS: When the People Who Built the Problem Advise on the Fix

And then there is the American Trucking Associations.

ATA occupies a unique position in the trucking industry. They are the largest lobbying organization in the industry. They advise Congress. They advise FMCSA. They produce research through their research arm, the American Transportation Research Institute, that federal agencies cite in rulemakings. They have a seat at every table where policy gets made.

And they have been on the wrong side of almost every major safety debate of the last two decades. They championed the driver shortage narrative that OOIDA, academic researchers, and even Secretary Duffy himself have rejected. They pushed the DRIVE Safe Act and the Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot Program to allow 18-year-olds to drive interstate trucks, a program so unsuccessful that only 80 apprentice drivers applied out of a capacity of 3,000, and 88 of the 211 carrier applicants were disapproved for failing to meet basic safety standards. They lobbied against meaningful ELDT reform, helping to create the CDL mill explosion that FMCSA spent five days dismantling this week. They pushed for deregulation that contributed to the flood of new entrants during 2020-2022, which included the chameleon carriers and fraudulent operators that this administration is now shutting down.

And now they are issuing press releases praising the very enforcement actions aimed at cleaning up the mess their policy positions helped create. ATA President Chris Spear praised Secretary Duffy’s pro-trucker package. ATA backed the SAFE Act, which targets chameleon carriers. ATA supported the non-domiciled CDL rule. These are the consequences of problems that ATA’s own lobbying positions contributed to. The cycle is consistent: advise the government, produce research to support the advice, the government acts on it, a decade later, when the policy fails, come back to the table to advise on the cleanup while publicly praising whatever direction the political wind is blowing.

This is not a conspiracy theory. This is documented. And it is one of the reasons the regulatory process takes so long and produces such inconsistent results. The loudest advisory voice in the room has institutional incentives that do not always align with safety outcomes.

THE MOST ACTIVE DOT IN A GENERATION, AND WHY THAT STILL TAKES TIME

The word ‘process’ gets used as an excuse for inaction. That is not what is happening here.

What the trucking industry is witnessing from DOT and FMCSA right now is the most aggressive enforcement posture in at least 25 years of industry observation. Carriers with 50 crashes are still operating. Insurers are covering hundreds of high-risk entities with zero meaningful underwriting scrutiny. Chameleon carrier networks that reincarnate faster than the agency can shut them down. These are documented failures, and this is the first administration in memory to have come in knowing what those failures look like and moving against them with real authority.

Consider what has happened in roughly 12 months: an executive order reinstating English Language Proficiency enforcement, resulting in 14,000 drivers placed out of service. A non-domiciled CDL final rule, taking effect March 15, was based on 8,010 public comments after the emergency rule was properly revised. The largest enforcement action ever against CDL training programs, with 557 providers removed or facing removal following 1,400 on-site sting operations across all 50 states. $160 million withheld from California and $40 million from New York for non-compliance. A package of forthcoming rulemakings announced on February 20 targets chameleon carriers, CDL testing, broker qualification, and carrier identity verification. The Motus registration platform is in soft launch, the first major overhaul of FMCSA’s registration infrastructure in decades. Over $275 million allocated for truck parking. HOS reform advancing through an NPRM.

That is not inaction. That is an agency operating at the outer edge of its authority while remaining within the legal guardrails required by the Administrative Procedure Act. The rulemakings announced yesterday will move through the process. They will face comment periods where industry attorneys and advocacy groups will try to dilute them. They will face court challenges once finalized. And they will ultimately make the industry safer if the people demanding change understand that supporting the process is part of that demand.

“These problems did not start with this administration. They will not end with a press conference. But for the first time in a long time, the right people are in the room and they know exactly what they’re looking at.”

These problems did not start here. The ELP enforcement gap goes back to 2016. The non-domiciled CDL compliance failures have been building for decades. The ELDT program, which spawned thousands of questionable CDL schools, was implemented in 2022. The $750,000 minimum insurance level has not changed since 1980. The chameleon carrier problem has been documented since Congress created the Archie program 13 years ago. Attention fades between disasters. The cycle restarts when someone dies. What is different right now is that the administration arrived knowing the cycle and is trying to break it with structural fixes rather than enforcement theater.

WHAT INFORMED ADVOCACY LOOKS LIKE FROM HERE

Effective advocacy requires understanding what you are asking for and who has the power to deliver it.

On CDL school reform: FMCSA is actively cleaning the registry. But the enforcement action announced this week is administrative, involving removals from the Training Provider Registry, and it will face appeals. A permanent fix requires Congressional action to establish minimum training-hour requirements, fund oversight infrastructure, and create penalties that deter fraud at the entry point. The ELDT program, as currently structured, provides the FMCSA with limited tools. Congress needs to provide better ones, and the comment period on the proposed ELDT rulemaking is the opportunity to put that on the record.

On chameleon carrier enforcement: support the SAFE Act. Support FMCSA’s new entrant screening reforms. When the Motus rulemaking on identity verification opens for comment, submit one. Documented experience, specific data, and real-world examples have legal weight when they are in the administrative record. They have zero weight in a social media comment thread.

On principal place of business verification: the AI tools Barrs described are an enforcement capability layered on top of existing regulations that already prohibit mail center addresses and virtual offices. What has been missing is the detection. Support FMCSA’s budget requests for enforcement technology. Contact your representatives and tell them the agency needs resources to use the tools it is building.

On insurance reform: the $750,000 minimum is set by statute. Contact your representative with specific asks tied to specific data, crash costs, medical bills, and what an 80,000-pound truck traveling at highway speed does to a passenger vehicle. And understand that even raising the minimum does not fix the underwriting gap, because no carrier is required to have its safety record verified before a policy is issued. That is separate legislation requiring separate advocacy.

On the non-domiciled CDL rule: the evidentiary record matters for the pending D.C. Circuit challenge. If there is data on crashes, licensing failures, or enforcement gaps involving non-domiciled CDL holders, submit it to the FMCSA. The rule that was built on 8,010 comments is more defensible than the emergency rule that skipped the comment process entirely. That is not an accident; that is how administrative law is supposed to work.

So What Now?

February 20, 2026, was a genuine milestone. The most comprehensive enforcement action against CDL training fraud in the history of the program. A clear-eyed announcement of rulemakings that address the structural vulnerabilities that created the mess. Two officials who clearly understand the industry they are regulating are putting their names on it publicly.

And it is still just the beginning of a process that will take years, face legal challenges, and require Congressional support to fully realize. Criticizing the administration for not moving faster ignores what yesterday represented. Celebrating it as a finished product ignores what it actually is: a very strong opening move in a very long game.

The process is slow. It is frustrating. It is maddening when people are dying on highways, and the legal machinery grinds at a pace that feels disconnected from urgency. But the alternative to the process is what happened with the non-domiciled CDL emergency rule. Action without process gets stayed by the courts. Action without data gets vacated. Action without methodology gets sent back to the starting gate.

The solution is not less scrutiny of the process. The solution is more people who understand it well enough to use it. Comment on NPRMs. Contact your representatives with specific legislative asks. Support the organizations doing actual policy work. And stop demanding that government officials do things they legally cannot do while giving a pass to the advisory organizations that helped build the mess.

It took decades to get here. It will not get fixed overnight. But it is getting fixed. And the people at DOT and FMCSA right now are doing more with the tools they have than this industry has seen in a long time. Give them the time and the legal space to do it right, because doing it fast and doing it wrong is how we got here in the first place.

Feds to axe multi-language testing for truckers

Roadside truck inspection

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Transportation plans to ramp up oversight of drivers who are not proficient in English by requiring all knowledge and skills test be administered in English.

Sean Duffy (left) with Derek Barrs Friday at DOT.

“In the state of California you can take the skills test and the proficiency test in 20 different languages,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said at a press conference at DOT headquarters on Friday. “What we’re doing is implementing a rule that says there’s one language in which you can take your test – it’s English only.”

The new restriction will be one of several upcoming rulemakings that DOT will use to step up pressure on foreign drivers holding non-domiciled CDLs and to crack down on trucking fraud, including modernizing the motor carrier registration system and improving the vetting process for electronic logging devices.

FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs, who joined Duffy, said the agency will be initiating a rulemaking to ensure that new drivers and carriers applying for operating authority “are thoroughly knowledgeable about the application and the safety requirements” before they become a new entrant.

“We’re also going to put in requirements to ensure all brokers are qualified and tested as part of their registration process as well,” Barrs said. “Right now you can pay $300 and become a carrier and run interstate commerce. It’s not acceptable. Good carriers understand what it takes to be safe.”

In addition to continuing to close loopholes that allow “chameleon carriers” with multiple DOT registration numbers to operate – often with a long list of safety violations – Barrs said FMCSA has rulemakings planned that will end the self-certification process for truck driver training schools and reform self-certification for ELD manufacturers.

“For years, chameleon carriers, CDL mills, and weak English language proficiency enforcement have allowed unqualified drivers to slip through the cracks compromising safety as well as facilitating fraud,” said Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association President Todd Spencer, commenting on the administration’s plans.

“Rather than lowering standards, the Trump Administration is strengthening training, licensing, and qualification protocols to ensure properly trained and vetted drivers operate on our nation’s highways.”

Click for more FreightWaves articles by John Gallagher.

Trump slaps 10% global tariff after Supreme Court blocks emergency trade powers

President Donald Trump announced Friday he will impose a new 10% global tariff under a different trade statute, hours after the Supreme Court struck down many of his prior tariffs as unconstitutional.

The high court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing broad “reciprocal” and country-specific tariffs tied to trade deficits and fentanyl enforcement 

The decision marked a significant setback for Trump’s emergency-based tariff framework. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that IEEPA “contains no reference to tariffs or duties” and could not be interpreted to give the president unilateral power to impose sweeping import taxes 

Within hours of the ruling, Trump unveiled what aides had described as a “Plan B,” signaling that tariffs would remain central to his trade agenda.

At a press conference, Trump said he would sign an executive order applying a 10% tariff on imports from all nations under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 

“Today, I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122, over and above our normal tariffs already being charged,” Trump said, adding that existing Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs would remain “fully in place.”

Unlike IEEPA, Section 122 explicitly limits both the duration and scope of tariff actions. The provision allows temporary import surcharges of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days unless Congress approves an extension 

The statute, originally enacted during the 1970s amid concerns over trade deficits and balance-of-payments pressures, was designed as a short-term emergency tool — not a long-term trade policy mechanism. 

Section 122 has never previously been invoked, making this the first time a president has used it to impose across-the-board global tariffs. 

While the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs, the court declined to address whether importers must be refunded for tariffs already paid. One dissenting justice warned refunds could total billions of dollars. 

The invalidated tariffs had generated roughly $130 billion in revenue as of mid-December, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data cited in court reporting. 

Trump also announced plans to initiate additional Section 301 investigations targeting alleged unfair trade practices, a move that could pave the way for more durable, country-specific tariffs.

Section 232 national security tariffs — including those on steel and aluminum — remain unaffected by the Supreme Court ruling. 

Court says small trucking company must negotiate with union defeated in a vote

A Virginia trucking company whose dispute before the National Labor Relations Board has been watched closely by labor law experts will be required to negotiate a contract with a union even though the rank and file did not vote for representation.

The complicated tangle of events took place at Garten Trucking, a southwest Virginia carrier whose SAFER profile with FMCSA says has 17 power units. 

A decision handed down earlier this week by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit upheld an earlier decision by an NLRB Administrative Law Judge that ordered Garten to negotiate with the Association of Western Pulp and Paper Workers, which had sought to unionize the company’s work force. Garten’s primary activity was and is hauling inbound and outbound products for a nearby paper mill.

The company had 109 employees at the time of the unionization drive, which meant the union needed to either win an election with at least 55 votes or secure 55 written authorizations in favor of unionization. The latter is a process known in some labor circles as “card check.”

The union obtained 61 cards. But in August 2021, a representation vote found the union on the losing end of a 65-30 outcome.

Conflict before the vote leads to the NLRB action

However, it was what happened prior to the vote that ultimately led to the NLRB decision and affirmation in federal court. The agency, now backed by a federal court of appeals, is that the behavior of Garten management during the card authorization drive and up to the election violated federal laws regarding meddling with the process. 

As a result, the NLRB handed down a “Gissel” order, which was affirmed by the appellate court. The term comes out of an NLRB action from 1969 in a case against Gissel Packing Co.

In summing up what the NLRB did, the appellate court said the federal agency had “determined that the effects of Garten’s coercive conduct were so pervasive that employees would be best protected by a Gissel bargaining order, requiring Garten to bargain with the union.”

The appellate court summed up several of the actions taken by Garten management that it said had constituted “coercive conduct.” 

The actions included a supervisor bringing an employee into an office to ask who among the employees was leading the push for unionization; a veiled threat by Tommy Garten, a member of the family that owns the company, that a contract with the paper mill would likely not be renewed if a union was in place; and a disciplining of two employees for allegations of improper union activity on the job.

An email to the attorney who represented Garten in the legal action had not been responded to by publication time. 

What Gissel says

Citing the wording in the Gissel case, the 4th Circuit said the NLRB can “order an employer to bargain with a union in one of two circumstances: exceptional cases marked by outrageous and pervasive unfair labor practices; and in less extraordinary cases marked by less pervasive practices which nonetheless still have the tendency to undermine majority strength and impede the election processes.”

Card check a side issue

The Garten case might have become a test case for the Cemex decision. In 2023, as this summary of the Cemex case from the Fisher Phillips law firms spells out, the NLRB in a case involving more than 350 drivers at Cemex Construction Materials Pacific set new standards for when a company would be required to recognize a union. 

One possible avenue for a union to receive that recognition: a majority of card authorizations, as was presented to Garten management before the actual representation vote fell short. 

Or as the NLRB described it in a prepared statement released in conjunction with the Cemex decision, “under the new framework, when a union requests recognition on the basis that a majority of employees in an appropriate bargaining unit have designated the union as their representative, an employer must either recognize and bargain with the union or promptly file a…petition seeking an election.”

But instead the court ordered negotiations under the Gissel guidelines.

The expectation among lawyers that specialize in labor relations is that the current NLRB, which only reached a level of a full three-person quota in December, will look to overturn Cemex when it gets the opportunity.

More articles by John Kingston

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Why ships could be Trump’s not-so-secret tariff weapon

Proposed fees on containerized imports could give President Donald Trump a new lever to raise revenue after the Supreme Court limited his power to implement emergency tariffs.

The Maritime Action Plan released by the White House Feb. 13 includes “universal fees” ranging from 1 cent to 25 cents per kilogram on cargo arriving at U.S. ports aboard foreign-built ships. The plans estimates the fees could raise as much as $1.5 trillion over 10 years, or $150 billion per year.

Customs revenue totaled $130 billion to $180 billion in 2025, counting emergency duties or all tariffs.

Trump imposed the tariffs as a way to obtain more favorable terms with trade partners, and to pay for his signature tax cuts in 2025.

Language in the MAP states that the fees “could” be used to fund a new Maritime Trust fund to help rebuild U.S. shipbuilding. But that seems by design to leave open the possibility of Trump deploying the funds for other purposes.

Some observers call the MAP fees a tax on global trade, with rapid downstream effects in the form of higher landed costs, pricing opacity, and uneven impacts across commodities and shippers. 

And since they are based on weight, the fees “don’t distinguish between value density, necessity, or strategic importance,” wrote John Krisch, chief executive of Kübox, a manufacturer of paper crates  based in Lebanon, Tenn., on LinkedIn. “That risks unintended consequences for exporters, consumers, and even U.S. logistics competitiveness, particularly at a moment when resilience and cost discipline are already strained.”

The tariff ruling also points up the non-stop chaos raking global trade, and the ongoing political risks weighing on container shipping.

“The decision impacts about two-thirds of the tariffs that have been collected to date and opens new avenues of uncertainty,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest U.S. import gateway, in a statement. “First, there is not yet clarity on whether there will be refunds from the U.S. Treasury Department on tariffs already paid.  Second, the administration has already announced a new 10% global tariff in the wake of the ruling with no indication as to when that will take effect. 

“As this develops in the middle of Lunar New Year, most of the factories in China and across Asia are closed for the holiday and not expected to reopen until at least next week.” 

As the contract negotiating season gets underway, ocean carriers are wrestling with a demand-capacity imbalance that’s been pushing down rates on key headhaul routes. Whether the tariff ruling gives trade a boost remains to be seen. But if cargo fees are implemented – as Trump did in 2025 with short-lived port fees on Chinese ships – it’s an open question whether container lines will be able to meaningfully raise prices.

In a statement, Maersk (MAERSK-B.CO) said that importers should continue complying with U.S. Customs requirements until official implementation guidance is provided.

This article was updated Feb. 20 to add a statement from Gene Seroka of the Port of Los Angeles.

Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Supreme Court curbs Trump’s tariff powers, reshaping 2026 trade outlook

The Supreme Court delivered a major blow to President Donald Trump’s trade strategy Friday, ruling that he exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs under a national emergency statute.

In a 6-3 ruling, the justices held that Trump could not rely on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy broad “reciprocal” tariffs and country-specific duties tied to fentanyl enforcement.

The decision strikes down tariffs imposed using that emergency authority while leaving in place others enacted under separate trade laws, such as those covering steel and aluminum.

The invalidated tariffs included country-by-country “reciprocal” rates — ranging as high as 34% on Chinese imports — as well as 25% tariffs applied to certain goods from Canada, Mexico and China tied to drug trafficking concerns.

Small businesses demand refunds

Following the ruling, We Pay the Tariffs — a grassroots coalition of more than 800 small and micro businesses — called on the administration and Congress to implement what it described as “full, fast and automatic” tariff refunds.

“Today’s Supreme Court decision is a tremendous victory for America’s small businesses who have been bearing the crushing weight of these tariffs,” Executive Director Dan Anthony said in a news release. He added that members of the coalition “have paid billions in tariffs that never should have been imposed,” forcing some to freeze hiring, cancel expansion plans and take out loans to cover unexpected costs.

In December, Costco sued the Trump administration over its tariff policy, joining dozens of importers — including Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods, and Kawasaki — which filed similar lawsuits, hoping to receive refunds if the Supreme Court overruled the tariffs, according to NPR.

Retail and freight outlook

While the ruling removes a layer of tariff pressure, analysts caution that broader trade uncertainty remains.

“The Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump lacks emergency authority to impose many of his administration’s tariffs removes one arrow from the administration’s quiver, but it doesn’t disarm it,” said Zak Stambor, principal analyst at eMarketer. “While the decision provides some near-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty facing retailers and brands.”

Stambor said the firm expects the ruling to create a modest tailwind for retail sales beginning this year, projecting 2026 retail sales growth of 3.5% to $7.78 trillion — about $13 billion above its previous forecast.

The gains, he said, will likely be concentrated in import-heavy discretionary categories such as computers and consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, and furniture and home furnishings.

For freight markets, that suggests potential incremental volume upside in trans-Pacific container flows and domestic trucking tied to consumer goods distribution — though not a structural reset.

At the same time, Stambor noted that the administration could pursue tariffs under alternative trade statutes, including Sections 232 and 301.

“Those authorities come with stricter constraints and could face further legal challenges, but they reinforce that trade policy uncertainty isn’t going away anytime soon,” he said.

Supply chain ripple effects

IEEPA-related tariffs had generated roughly $130 billion in revenue as of mid-December, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data cited in court reporting 

Companies, including major retailers and consumer brands, had already filed lawsuits seeking potential tariff refunds.

For North American supply chains — particularly U.S.-Mexico cross-border sectors including automotive, industrial goods and consumer products — the rollback of certain fentanyl-related tariffs could ease cost pressures in 2026. 

However, the possibility of new tariffs under different legal authorities may limit long-term capital investment decisions and continue to cloud sourcing strategies.

Averitt announces expansion plans to terminal network

a closeup of a red Averitt tractor on a highway

Less-than-truckload carrier Averitt announced plans to add warehouse space and dock doors to its network over the next two years.

The Cookeville, Tennessee-based carrier said it will add nearly 900,000 square feet of warehouse space and 379 dock doors by 2027. It also plans to grow truck parking by nearly 2,000 spaces over that time.

“Our facility investments reflect a disciplined, long-term approach to serving our customers,” said Barry Blakely, Averitt president and chief operating officer, in a news release. “By strengthening our infrastructure across our footprint, we are positioned to provide more integrated solutions through our Power of One model.”

The company opened a new facility in Ocala, Florida earlier this month. It is expanding or opening new terminals in Oklahoma City; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Jackson, Mississippi and Columbia, South Carolina.

“The multiyear enhancement plan is focused on increasing network capacity, improving freight flow, modernizing facilities and ensuring consistency across markets,” the news release said.

The company also completed facility upgrades last year.

Averitt operates more than 140 terminals in the U.S. South and Southeast. It also offers truckload, dedicated and distribution and fulfillment, among other logistics services. The company has over 8,500 employees.

It inked a deal with Best Overnite Express last year to provide service in the Western states.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:

FedEx ‘highly confident’ grounded MD-11 aircraft will return to service

Side view of a purple-tailed FedEx MD-11 freighter on the taxiway.

FedEx Corp. is not giving up on the MD-11 despite a protracted grounding of the aging aircraft following a fatal crash in early November that led rival UPS to pull the plug on its MD-11 fleet.

The integrated parcel and freight carrier has consistently projected a rosy outlook for its fleet of 28 MD-11 widebody freighters since the fiery crash of UPS Flight 2976 in Louisville, Kentucky, after the left engine separated from the wing during take off. The Federal Aviation Administration banned MD-11s from flying until the entire fleet is thoroughly inspected and any necessary repairs are completed. The National Transportation Safety Board found fatigue cracks in a structural section that held an engine to the left-wing

Richard Smith, CEO of FedEx Airline and chief operating officer of the international segment, said during the company’s Feb. 12 Investor Day outlook that the company is “highly confident in the safe return of those aircraft.”

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) previously stated in its December quarterly earnings presentation that it expects the MD-11s to return to service between March and the end of May. Outsourcing some airlift to other carriers and other steps to make up for the lost MD-11 capacity cost FedEx about $175 million during the peak shipping season.

Aviation authorities have been mum about the status of MD-11 inspections. Boeing issued a service bulletin 14 years ago in which it disclosed four previous separations of an attachment that helps hold engines to the MD-11’s wing, according to a National Transportation Safety Board report in January. 

UPS (NYSE: UPS) in late January announced it would permanently retire its 27 MD-11 aircraft. The fleet had an average age of about 32 years and UPS said it will replace them with more modern 767-300 freighters already on order from Boeing. Western Global Airlines, the only other MD-11 operator, has been silent about its plans.

FedEx has been consistently optimistic that the MD-11s will receive a safety clearance and resume flying in its air network. On Nov. 11, Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich declared at an investor conference that the inspection process was expected to be relatively quick and that the airline would return MD-11 cargo jets to service on a rolling basis after they passed safety checks and completed any necessary repairs. His comments came before the NTSB issued its preliminary accident report, in which it highlighted discovery of the fatigue cracks. 

FedEx didn’t begin to remove MD-11s from its December schedule until late November even as UPS had determined that the inspection process would last several months. On Dec. 18, Dietrich said FedEx was projecting the aircraft would return to service in the spring period. 

In his Investor Day remarks, Smith said regulators and MD-11 supplier Boeing have publicly “lauded the diligence of our maintenance operation, our crew training on that aircraft, as well as the technology we’ve put into it. So we’re confident we can fly that [plane] to 2032.” It’s unclear what comments he was referring to.

FedEx last March said it had extended the retirement deadline for the full MD-11 fleet from 2028 until 2032 because of rising demand for heavy-freight air transport. The airline division has retired about 40 MD-11s over the past four years. Management recently implemented a new strategy aimed at capturing a larger share of the $90 billion for-hire airfreight market.

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

Write to Eric Kulisch at ekulisch@freightwaves.com.

UPS won’t resurrect MD-11 fleet after deadly crash, takes $137M charge

FedEx orders Boeing 777 and ATR cargo aircraft, delays MD-11 retirements

CPKC CEO ‘not drinking the merger Kool-Aid’

The Surface Transportation Board’s rejection of the initial Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application shows the $85 billion transaction is not a done deal.

“I’m not drinking the merger Kool-Aid that this thing’s going to get approved. It may or it may not,” Canadian Pacific Kansas City Chief Executive Keith Creel told an investor conference on Wednesday.

“I believe, especially in light of the last ruling when their application was ruled incomplete, it says that … this isn’t a layup,” Creel said.

Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena has argued that the deal to create a transcontinental railroad is so good for shippers, the rail industry, and the country that it will be a regulatory slam dunk. The railroads will file a revised application on April 30.

The STB has said that the Jan. 16 rejection of the application as incomplete is not an indication of how the board may rule on the merger itself.

But Creel noted that the STB’s current merger review rules were drawn up in 2001 after the disruption caused by Class I railroad megamergers of the 1990s. The earlier regulations encouraged industry consolidation, while the new ones were written to pause and ultimately stop major mergers between the largest Class I systems, Creel said.

“Those integrations were painful,” Creel said of Burlington Northern-Santa Fe (BRK-B), Union Pacific-Southern Pacific, and the CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) split of Conrail.

Creel said that those troubled merger integrations foreshadow what’s to come if the STB approves the UP-NS merger.

“The risk factor – that’s huge,” Creel said, no matter how much planning goes into crucial steps like extending UP’s NetControl computer system to the NS network.

UP (NYSE: UNP) executives have promised a smooth computer system transition like the one they accomplished in 2024 when NetControl was activated.

When CPKC (NYSE: CP) shut down the legacy KCS computer system in the U.S. in favor of the CP system in May 2025, it promptly led to service problems in the Gulf Coast region.

“They’ve done a great job in cutting over their own system,” Creel says of UP. “But … replacing your own system with a system you designed, versus marrying another company and trying to integrate and cut over a system you uniquely do not know? There’s complexities that are involved that with the best of planning it’s impossible to get it all right,” he said, noting that no one fully understood things that were going on in the background that kept the KCS system working.

Creel also says a merger the size of UP-NS poses operational risks in and of itself. 

“Jim’s a good railroader, a good operating guy,” Creel said of Vena, a former Canadian National (NYSE: CNI) colleague. But even if the integration goes relatively smoothly, things like harsh weather in Chicago can quickly knock a railroad off kilter, said Creel.

“When it’s 40 below zero for an extended period of time, and you’re in the middle of Chicago and the snow falls, you have a problem,” he said.

While the UP-NS merger will take some cars out of the Belt Railway of Chicago’s Clearing Yard – the busiest classification facility in the Windy City – the expanded UP would still be the biggest user of the yard and will control almost half of the rail traffic in the U.S. Given that, Creel says that if UP stubs its toe, it will affect the entire rail network.

The primary argument behind the Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern merger – that CPKC’s end-to-end combination would be able to offer customers seamless, single-line service – also applies to UP-NS, Vena told an investor conference this week. Vena also said that the degree of overlap between the UP and NS systems is roughly the same as on the pre-merger CP and KCS networks.

“Some people would say, Keith, you’re a hypocrite. You’re a product of consolidation,” Creel says of the CP-KCS merger, which was judged under the STB’s old merger rules. “I’m not a hypocrite. I understand the facts. What we did complemented and created competition without tilting the scales of market power to the disadvantage of any particular customer. There’s not one single customer that lost an option with us. It truly was end to end.”

He also says CPKC didn’t have to offer shippers anything like Committed Gateway Pricing, which UP is offering to ensure gateway through rates are preserved for UP-CSX and NS-BNSF routings.

“And what was true about us is not true about this combination,” Creel said. “You’re talking about something that creates, if it’s approved, a Goliath that is going to have exponential market power.”

CPKC united the two smallest Class I lines – railroads that touched only at Kansas City, where they shared Knoche Yard for decades, Creel noted. Calgary-based CPKC is still the smallest Class I.

“The scale is the X factor. It’s uniquely different than what we did,” Creel says of UP-NS. “Again, Chicago is a great example. The bigger it gets, the more complicated it gets, and the more the pain if you get it wrong.”

CPKC has struggled to meet merger-related volume growth targets, partly due to ongoing trade tensions involving the United States,  Canada and Mexico. And Creel questioned the UP-NS growth projections of taking 2 million trucks off the highway annually.

“To achieve them, you’re assuming that the trucking industry is just going to roll over. They’re not. I think we’ve learned that that’s a different beast to compete against,” Creel said.

Creel says consolidation in the rail industry is not necessary. But he also says that if UP-NS is approved, it will prompt additional mergers.

“It will definitely create an environment where it will be necessary for additional consolidation. Now I’m not speaking out of both sides of my mouth. I do not believe we need consolidation. I do not want consolidation,” said Creel. “But if it happens, then I think you’re going to have additional consolidation that is necessary and that is inevitable. And how it all shakes out, I’m not certain.”

Creel spoke at the Citi Global Tech and Mobility Conference on Wednesday. He made similar comments Thursday at a Barclays conference.

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