US tariffs impacting Mexican trucking industry, exports drop over 50%

Exports, production and domestic sales of Mexican-built heavy-duty trucks saw steep year over year declines in July.

Mexican trucking industry officials attributed U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper for the sharp contractions, along with the uncertainty in the market created by increased duties on goods from Mexico to the U.S.

“The impact we’re having is primarily related to steel, aluminum and now copper,”  Rogelio Arzate, president of Mexico’s National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor Producers (Anpact), said during a news conference on Tuesday. “[Tariffs] generate uncertainty, and we see it reflected in the results we’ve had so far this year.”

Exports of Mexican-made trucks fell 51.6% year-over-year in July to 7,867 units, while production plummeted 55.1% year-over-year to 9,668 units, according to data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography.

The U.S. market was the main destination for exports of trucks made in Mexico, accounting for 94.9% in July, followed by Canada at 3.5% and Colombia at 0.7%.

On July 31, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to extend an existing trade deal for 90 days while negotiations continue for a long term agreement.

The 90-day extension means a 25% tariff rate will stay in place for Mexico instead of a 30% levy that would have started Friday as part of the Trump administration’s global “reciprocal” tariff policy.

Imported goods from Mexico covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remain exempt from tariffs.

Guillermo Rosales, deputy director general of the Mexican Association of Automobile Dealers, said the trade uncertainty between Mexico and the U.S. is hurting demand for trucks.

“We expect that during the rest of 2025 and 2026, as long as there is no clarity on the terms under which the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be renegotiated, we will continue in a negative environment for the sale of heavy commercial vehicles,” Rosales said during the same news conference.

The 16 members of Anpact in Mexico are Freightliner, Kenworth, Navistar, Hino, International, DINA, MAN SE, Mercedes-Benz, Isuzu, Scania, Shacman Trucks, Foton, Cummins, Detroit Diesel, Daimler Buses Mexico and Volkswagen Buses.

Wholesale sales of trucks in Mexico dropped 60.1% year-over-year to 2,175 units in July, compared to 5,452 in the same year-ago period.

Freightliner was the top truck producer and exporter in Mexico in July, producing 5,977 trucks, a 39% year-over-year decline. The truck maker exported 5,540 units during April, a 36.3% year-over-year decrease.

International Trucks Inc. was the No. 2 producer and exporter, manufacturing 2,218 trucks in July, a 74.7% year-over-year decrease. The truck maker’s exports fell 74.8% year-over-year to 1,739 units during the month.

Kenworth came in third for production and exports during July, manufacturing 953 truckings, a 52% year-over-year decline. The company’s exports decreased 10% year-over-year to 588 units.

C.H. Robinson gets an upgrade at S&P Global, reduced headcount a key reason

C.H. Robinson is back to its long-time debt rating of BBB+ from S&P Global Ratings, after about 15 months at a level one notch below that. 

The ratings agency on Wednesday increased the rating of the giant 3PL by one notch to BBB+. It had cut that rating to BBB in May 2024, after the company had held a BBB+ since at least 2018. 

But the May reduction came right about the same time that C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: CHRW) was beginning its turnaround, at least as far as its earnings demonstrated. A strong first quarter 2024 report sent the company’s stock price soaring, and that has been followed by continuing solid financial reports and a rise in its stock price of about 73% since the end of April 2024. The stock is up almost 24% just in the last month.

The S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) rating is considered one notch above the Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) rating of Baa2 for C.H. Robinson. Moody’s affirmed that rating in late June.  Both ratings are in investment-grade territory. 

Headcount cuts came faster than expected

Geoffrey Wilson, the San Francisco-based S&P Global analyst who conducted the analysis leading to the C.H. Robinson upgrade, said the relatively quick turnaround in C.H. Robinson’s fortunes owed to several developments. But one stood out. 

“One is that they significantly and very quickly rightsized their head count,” Wilson said in an interview with FreightWaves. 

Wilson said many 3PLs, during the post-pandemic freight boom of 2022, were facing “rising rates that made for some good times.”

“And what we saw were a lot of companies that wanted to take advantage of the good times and maybe take a disproportionate piece of market share that was growing there,” Wilson said. That push came with adding headcount.

But the problem these companies encountered when the good times slowed is that they were dealing with a new capital structure that was now facing low freight rates and rising interest rates. “The capital structure was completely different from how they foresaw the next two years,” Wilson added.

Wilson alluded to last year’s S&P Global downgrade of C.H. Robinson and its proximity to the evidence of a turnaround. “When we ultimately downgraded them, it was early days of the head count restructuring but we just didn’t see how it could be done quick enough to give them the sources of liquidity needed,” he said.

At C.H. Robinson, Wilson said, executives were saying on earnings calls as early as the fourth quarter of 2022 that cutbacks were likely. “What we’ve seen since then is a very quick headcount restructuring that to this day is still going on,” Wilson said.

The S&P Global report notes that personnel expenses at C.H. Robinson have dropped 19% since a fourth quarter 2022 peak. Average headcount is down 27% since then. 

Ultimately, ratings agencies rely on numbers in deciding whether to upgrade, downgrade or hold steady a company’s debt rating. In its release announcing the change, S&P Global said the metric of funds from operations to debt at C.H. Robinson has been above 45% since the fourth quarter of 2024, a key metric. 

The ratings agency said it expects C.H. Robinson to sustain that coverage at “well over” 45%,”which comfortably exceeds our previous upside threshold for our rating.” That metric was another key number that led to the upgrade, S&P Global said.

Debt load is reduced

Another development cited by S&P Global was debt redemption by C.H. Robinson. The ratings agency said the 3PL has fully repaid a $141 million balance on its revolving credit facility and reduced its borrowing under an accounts receivable lending facility by $70 million.

Other metrics cited by S&P Global are efficiency-driven. For example, the agency said,  shipments per person per day “have grown at a double digit percentage for over two years, supported by automation and digital capabilities.”

The upgrade came with an outlook of stable. A stable outlook means conditions are such that an upgrade or downgrade in the short to medium term is not likely; C.H. Robinson had a negative outlook prior to its 2024 downgrade.

“The stable outlook reflects our view that operational efficiencies gained over the past few years can offset potential industry headwinds arising from trade policy uncertainty,” the report said. It added that S&P Global expects the FFO to debt metric to be in the mid 50% range for this year. 

In a prepared statement, C.H. Robinson said the upgrade “reflects the meaningful progress we’ve made in strengthening our financial profile, driven by disciplined capital allocation, sustained market outgrowth, margin expansion and productivity improvements, and a resilient operating model. Despite persistent freight market headwinds, our strong business performance and focus on operational improvement initiatives have enabled us to maintain healthy leverage ratios and consistent cash flow, which S&P recognized as key contributors to our improved credit standing.” 

 The increase in C.H. Robinson’s debt rating is particularly notable given what has happened to the debt ratings of the small group of other 3PLs that have publicly-traded debt.

RXO (NYSE: RXO) was cut by S&P Global to BB, a non-investment grade rating, in May 2024. Echo Global Logistics has been at B- since October 2023. Odyssey Logistics’ move to a B- rating took place in early June. 

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Yellow Corp. to sell Ontario terminal, 2 others for $16M

A Yellow Corp. tractor pulling a Roadway trailer exiting a terminal

Bankrupt Yellow Corp. has entered a motion with a federal bankruptcy court in Delaware to sell three terminals valued at approximately $16 million, according to a Thursday filing.

A $15.6 million sale agreement has been inked for a 42-door terminal in Ontario, Canada. A local concrete supplier appears to be the buyer.

The other properties include a 14-door location in Jacksonville, North Carolina ($300,000) and an 8-door terminal in Quebec ($115,000).

All three properties are owned by the defunct less-than-truckload carrier’s estate.

Proceeds from the sales will settle claims against the estate, including employee claims for PTO, sick time and amounts sought under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.

Yellow’s estate has sold roughly 215 terminals for nearly $2.4 billion.

A monthly operating report for June showed the estate had $608 million in cash and has paid out $220 million in professional fees and expenses since the August 2023 bankruptcy filing.

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Ports to DOT: Time for a maritime reboot

Vincent Thomas Bridge

WASHINGTON – Seaports, waterway operators, and shippers are telling the Trump administration that a national freight plan will be incomplete without a significant focus on maritime transportation.

Comments filed with the U.S. Department Transportation by the Port of Los Angeles, the American Waterways Operators (AWO), and the National Waterways Conference echo a common theme: that maritime freight is undervalued and should be a higher priority within DOT’s National Freight Strategic Plan (NFSP), which is under review by the department.

“The lack of recognition and inclusion of waterborne freight transportation, and the omission of maritime facilities and networks in this national freight transportation framework creates a disconnect between the essential role of our ports and waterways and the broader goals of freight transportation, and highlights the need for a more balanced and inclusive approach in the NFSP,” said Julie Ufner, President and CEO of NWC, whose members includes ports, barge operators, and agriculture exporters.

Ufner also pointed out that the map designating the current National Multimodal Freight Network (NMFN) – which is to be used in conjunction with the NFSP – includes only 138 public ports, despite data showing more than 350 public ports “and thousands of private terminals in active use,” Ufner said. “At the same time, other modes, including privately held railroads, are abundantly represented on the map.”

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, stressed that a “whole-of-government approach” to maritime policy is needed, recommending DOT integrate a National Maritime Strategy with the NFSP “which is critical for improving supply chain resilience, enhancing economic competitiveness, and advancing national security,” he wrote in comments filed with DOT.

Seroka told DOT that a $1.5 billion project he announced last month to raise the Vincent Thomas Bridge, a suspension bridge that traverses the port and is used heavily by trucks hauling in and out of the port, is an example of how integrating road and marine strategies can benefit both sectors.

“The current clearance of the bridge is a constraint on the newest, supersized cargo vessels, barring access to 40% of the port’s terminal capacity,” he said. Raising the bridge by 26 ft. to 211 ft. would open the port to larger container ships “and preserve a significant amount of the nation’s port capacity” he stated.

The port also pushed DOT to expand the criteria for identifying corridors providing access to manufacturing and agriculture to include those that provide access to logistics hubs and retail centers, “which represent a significant portion of the modern economy.”

AWO, which represents barge companies and others that operate on inland waterways and along the coast, urged DOT and the Maritime Administration (Marad), an agency under DOT, should coordinate with other federal agencies to better integrate domestic Marine Highway Routes into the strategy “to ensure shippers are aware of the benefits of maritime transportation … to achieve full multimodal transportation network integration,” said Caitlyn Stewart, AWO’s vice president for regulatory affairs.

Steward also suggested that DOT and Marad coordinate with shippers “to identify opportunities to use maritime transportation to meet their needs.”

Click for more FreightWaves articles by John Gallagher.

BMO’s transportation group, major lender to trucking, may be for sale: report

The transportation group of BMO, one of the largest lenders to the trucking industry, may be up for sale.

According to a Wednesday report from Bloomberg, BMO (NYSE: BMO), the former Bank of Montreal, is “exploring” a sale of the transportation finance business. Bloomberg, quoting “people familiar with the matter,” said the group could bring a sales price of about $1 billion.

If the deal was concluded in the next few months–if there is a deal–it would mark an almost even decade that BMO had the business. It bought the unit from GE Finance in late 2015.

The quarterly earnings at BMO provide granular data on various performance metrics of its divisions, including transportation. Figures on writeoffs, allowances, provisions and impaired loans, as well as the size of the transportation unit’s total book of business, can be used to draw some inference about the state of the industry. 

For example, gross impaired loans in the second quarter were $503 million. In the strong freight market of 2022, the quarterly figure for gross impaired loans were generally between $70 and $80 million, reflecting the radically different conditions for trucking.  

With a sale, that data presumably will no longer be available unless the new owner publishes it each quarter.

Approximately 90% of BMO’s transportation book of business is believed to be trucking. 

BMO’s view of the importance of that sector can be seen at numerous trucking trade shows. The bank often secures the first spot at the various conferences’ trade shows, impossible to miss when attendees walk through the door.

An email sent to BMO seeking comment had not been returned at publication time. The bank also declined comment to Bloomberg.

In its latest quarterly report for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, released in late May, BMO reported gross loans and acceptances in its transportation unit of over CA$14 billion (U.S. $10.1 billion). That was down from approximately $14.9 billion in the prior quarter. The highest book of business reported by the company’s transportation sector was approximately $15.6 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. 

Of the various sectors broken out by BMO, that bank of business for transportation is well down the chart compared to other lending books at BMO. The largest in the second quarter was commercial real estate at $76.9 billion.

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Supply chain disruptions feared as Air Canada prepares for strike

A flight attendant on a picket line holds an orange sign "UnfAir Canada"

Air Canada has begun canceling long-haul international flights, which carry most of the airline’s cargo, in preparation for a planned work stoppage by flight attendants on Saturday, executives said Thursday.

The news conference in Toronto was cut short after union members walked in front of the stage with signs, such as “Unpaid work won’t fly,” critical of Air Canada’s negotiating position in stalled contract talks. 

Air Canada (TSX: AC) will gradually suspend flights until all flights are grounded by Saturday morning. Dozens of flights will be canceled Thursday and by the end of Friday about 500 flights will be canceled, impacting more than 100,000 travelers.

“This will also impact our cargo operations and have consequences on the supply chain,” said Arielle Meloul-Wechsler, chief human resources and public affairs officer. Air Canada’s fleet of six Boeing 767-300 freighter aircraft will operate with modified schedules, which will protect about 20% to 25% of usual volumes, a spokesman informed FreightWaves by email. 

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday urged the federal government to intervene to prevent a prolonged disruption to travel and commerce, if the sides can’t resolve their differences. Nearly half of all Canadian pharmaceuticals shipped by air are carried by Air Canada. Shipments of agriculture, perishable food products, parts and machinery for manufacturing will all be delayed if Air Canada is forced to shut down, the business group said.  

“At a time when Canada is facing unprecedented economic challenges and trade uncertainty, a service disruption would interrupt air cargo connectivity, directly impacting Canadian businesses that are working to diversify their customers in provinces across the country. The impact on business will be felt internationally too, and would lead to losses for Canadian exporters, further compounding the impacts on industries throughout our economy,” the Chamber said in a statement.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses expressed similar concerns and interest in government intervention. 

Once the strike is over it will take a full week for Air Canada to fully restore operations, said Chief Operating Officer Marc Nasr. 

Air Canada has characterized the flight attendants as not serious about reaching an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement. 

The Canadian Union of Public Employees, which represents 10,000 flight attendants, started negotiations demanding a compensation increase of more than 100%, according to the airline, which countered with a 38% increase in total compensation, including benefits and pensions, over four years. The offer also includes an increase in ground pay, which is calculated separately for work carried out when planes are not in flight. 

CUPE blames Air Canada for the breakdown in talks, saying the airline’s offer is below industry standard and fails to make up ground on inflation since the previous contract was signed in 2015. It says the employer’s offer would only raise wages by 17.2% and has refused to participate in binding arbitration as a way to resolve the labor dispute. Air Canada has requested the Canadian government impose arbitration on the parties if there is no resolution by Saturday.

The union claims flight attendants aren’t paid for much of the time worked while the plane is at the gate.

“Flight attendants should be paid for every minute they spend on the job. It’s as simple as that,” said CUPE National President Mark Hancock. “But instead of negotiating in good faith, Air Canada is asking the federal government to help get them off the hook.”

CUPE said it tabled a proposal at 9 p.m. on Tuesday, but Air Canada has not responded. 

Air Canada operates more than 250 aircraft to 200 destinations in more than 65 countries.

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

Write to Eric Kulisch at ekulisch@freightwaves.com.

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Ore, automotive lead rail freight ahead of 2024 levels

U.S. weekly rail traffic remained ahead of 2024 levels for a sixth consecutive week, according to the latest statistics from the Association of American Railroads.

For the week ending Aug. 9, traffic totaled 511,194 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3% compared to the same week a year ago. That includes 227,327 carloads, up 2.4% compared to the corresponding week a year ago, and 283,867 containers and trailers, an increase of 3.4.%

For the year to date, total traffic is 15,673,805 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.8% over the first 32 weeks of 2024. The overall figure includes 7,055,736 carloads, up 2.8%, and 8,618,069 intermodal units, an increase of 4.6%.

Chemicals, a premium category for rail and bellwether among raw materials input for manufacturing, was off 0.4% y/y, one of only three commodities to decline. 

The intermodal gains are likely driven by international shipments, as the ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach reported record volumes in July.

North American volume for the week, from nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads, was 695,674 carloads, containers and trailers, a 2.7% increase over the corresponding week in 2024. The overall figure includes 324,349 carloads, down 0.04%, and 371,325 intermodal units, up 5.3%.

Year-to-date North American traffic comes in at 21,639,091 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the same period in 2024. That includes 5,194,861 carloads, containers, and trailers in Canada, an increase of 1.6%, and 770,425 carloads and intermodal units in Mexico, down 4.8%.

Subscribe to FreightWaves’ Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your inbox.

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Clean Truck Partnership takes another blow with FTC deal, in wild week for the beleaguered pact

The four truck manufacturers who earlier this week sued to invalidate the Clean Truck Partnership (CTP) they signed with California two years ago have now agreed with the Federal Trade Commission to not take any steps to comply with the deal that sought to push truck fleets toward a zero emission vehicle future in California and other states that had agreed to follow its lead.

In return, the FTC has agreed to close an investigation into possible antitrust concerns with the CTP.

And in another victory for the forces that were fighting California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule and the CTP that was built in part on the provisions of the ACT, the truck manufacturers also agreed to a settlement ending a lawsuit by several states against the CTP, led by the attorney general of Nebraska. That deal was announced earlier this week. 

The developments add up to a triumvirate of actions just this week that are seeking to vanquish the dying embers of the ACT: the lawsuit against the California Air Resources Board, saying federal action to invalidate the ACT has left the manufacturers in an “impossible position”; the settlement with Nebraska; and the FTC announcement and accompanying letters from the truck manufacturers, promising they will stay out of deals like the CTP.

The four truck manufacturers are International Motors, Daimler Truck, PACCAR (NASDAQ: PCAR) and Volvo North America. They had agreed to the CTP in 2023, a pact that had two key features: an agreement by the manufacturers that they would not challenge the ACT, and that California’s Omnibus NOx rule, which seeks to lower emissions of nitrogen oxide, would be brought in line with the more lenient federal standard. 

But with Congressional action that eliminated the waiver allowing California’s ACT and NOx rules to proceed, the basis for the CTP was largely gone. (California is challenging the process that ended those waivers.)

The FTC said in a prepared statement released Tuesday that it had “(resolved) antitrust concerns” about the CTP. 

Similar letters sent

But as part of the statement, the FTC also included letters from the four companies that sued California over the CTP earlier this week. The four letters were largely verbatim, which we resulted in a consistent message: we won’t do that again.

All the letters were sent to Andrew Ferguson, chairman of the Federal Trade Commission. 

All four letters open by saying that the companies “understand that the FTC has decided to close the…investigation into whether (the companies) violated…the FTC Act by signing the Clean Truck Partnership with the California Air Resources Board, as did several other heavy and medium duty truck manufacturers.”

The CTP, according to the letters, gave the OEMs “relief (that) allowed Volvo to continue delivering high-quality products to its dealers and customers. In exchange, CARB sought to require manufacturer compliance with California’s ACT and Omnibus regulation, should California’s waivers of authority be invalidated through litigation.”

The companies said they believed those negotiations and the agreement were permitted under various antitrust doctrines.

What they agreed to do…and not to do

The companies, in their respective letters, then made several affirmations. The first is that he CTP was “rendered unenforceable” through the actions of Congress and subsequent Presidential approval through the Congressional Review Act; that the Presidential approval of the Congressional actions “did not trigger any obligations”; and that the companies will not try to enforce the CTP against any other companies that signed the deal. 

They also affirmed that the manufacturers would “independently make decisions about the type and quantity of vehicles it sells without regard to whether those decisions are compliant with any restrictive terms of the CTP.” The companies also said they would not enter into any similar deals with any states.

The letters were all signed by various governmental relations and compliance executives at the companies.

Although the main impact from the FTC deal is the promise not to engage with California or any other state on a similar type of agreement, the FTC in its prepared statement mostly suggested what had occurred had to do more with market concentration, which always has been the remit of the agency.

“The antitrust concerns are obvious: a group of competitors controlling essentially all of a market contemporaneously signed a self-styled ‘Agreement’ under the auspices of government that contains caps on the sales of certain products in that market and collectively adopted emissions limits that, in practice, would similarly limit production,” the FTC said. “Our antitrust laws take the dimmest possible view of agreements among competitors to restrict output or otherwise to cease competing.”

End of the Nebraska lawsuit

In the Nebraska lawsuit, filed in the district court for Lincoln County, Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers said the plaintiffs and the defendants–the four truck manufacturers as well as the Truck & Engine Manufacturers Association–had agreed to a joint dismissal of the action. Hilgers, in a prepared statement, said the truck companies in the settlement declared the CTP as “void.”

Next industry target: the federal NOx rule

With the NOx rule a core part of the CTP, and the NOx rule’s waiver that allowed it to proceed also revoked through Congressional action along with the ACT, it raises a new question: will the federal rule be altered?

With the American Trucking Associations leading the charge, the effort to change the rule appears to have begun Wednesday with a letter sent by ATA to Lee Zeldin, Environmental Protection Agency administrator, seeking an easing of the NOx rule.

The rule with its tighter emission standards for nitrogen oxide, is to go in to effect in 2027. But the ATA-led effort is asking that it be rolled back to 2031.

The NOx rule received a waiver from the EPA late last year. But that waiver was overridden by the same Congressional action that targeted the ACT. 

The letter, signed by the ATA, various state affiliates of the ATA and other organizations such as the Truckload Carriers Association, also asks for a broader review of NOx emission standards. 

That review, the letter said, would focus on a wide range of rules, including warranty obligations and requirements regarding the useful life of an engine. But the review would need to be done by the end of next year, the letter said, for the rulemaking process to be complete in time for planning the 2031 model year vehicles. 

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Past is prologue: Rising container volumes portend falling rates

As Shakepeare may have put it, when it comes to container shipping, the past, very much, is prologue.

So while the busiest U.S. ports hailed tariff-averse volume records in July, that elation was short-lived as container rates continue to fall on demand apparently sated by frontloading.

Market average rates on the benchmark trans-Pacific trade from the Far East to U.S. West Coast ports were just above $2,000 per forty foot equivalent unit for the week ending August 13, consultant Xeneta said in an update, the lowest it has been since the end of 2023, as the Red Sea crisis was unfolding.

That compares to $2,098 for the week ending August 6.

Far East to U.S. East Coast prices were $3,174 per FEU, down from $3,311 w/w. North Europe to the U.S. East Coast was $1,941 per FEU, from $2,015.

Xeneta said capacity management by carriers and less tariff uncertainty had helped brake the overall rate decline to 6% in July, after prices plunged by as much as 53% on the trans-Pacific in June. 

SONAR index tracking decline of inbound China-U.S. TEUs after July peak.

No immediate cargo rush is expected, after the Trump administration extended the pause on higher tariffs for Chinese imports another 90 days into early November.

Among Far East fronthauls U.S. East Coast rates have decreased 12.8% or $464 per FEU since the end of July, second only to South America’s 18.3% drop or $1,020 per FEU.

Far East to North Europe rates fell to $3,247 per FEU from $3,330, while Far East to the Mediterranean slid to $3,337 from $3,372.

Prices on the Far East to Mediterranean are down 8.2% since July 31, Xeneta said, adding that expected increases in vessel capacity will only exacerbate declining spot rates absent higher demand.
“The further 90-day extension of current tariff levels between U.S. and China will not have a significant impact on shippers and we should not expect another cargo rush, as we saw immediately following the initial lowering of tariffs mid-May,” said Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand, in a note. “Shippers have already embraced the first 90-day window of opportunity to frontload goods – there is no longer a pent-up demand to get goods into the U.S., so spot rates are expected to decline further in the coming weeks as capacity also increases.“The massive challenge facing carriers is not restricted to the U.S.-bound fronthauls, with offered capacity also increasing from Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean in the coming weeks, potentially putting further downward pressure on spot rates here, too.”

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Freight shipment decline streak extends to 30 months, Cass says

a white sleeper cab pulling a trailer on a rainy highway

Freight volumes fell faster in July while expenditures stepped slightly higher on a year-over-year comparison. Choppiness in demand created by an uncertain trade landscape continues to overhang the industry, according to a Thursday report from Cass Information Systems.

Shipments on the multimodal index slid 1.8% from June (down 1.7% seasonally adjusted) and were down 6.9% y/y. This was the largest y/y decline in the dataset since January. Volumes have fallen sequentially in three straight months.  

“Tariffs hit shipments harder in the most recent data, as paybacks began from demand pull-forwards earlier in the year, though goods prices are still relatively steady,” the report said.

The index is expected to be down 8% y/y in August, assuming normal season trends. However, the report said a recent rise in imports may mute some of the expected decline.

July 2025
y/y

2-year

m/m

m/m (SA)
Shipments-6.9%-7.9%-1.8%-1.7%
Expenditures0.4%-5.8%-1.5%-0.6%
TL Linehaul Index2.4%-0.8%-0.6%NM
Table: Cass Information Systems (SA – seasonally adjusted)

Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, declined 1.5% from June (0.6% lower seasonally adjusted) but was up 0.4% y/y. (Retail diesel fuel prices in July were up 5% sequentially but 1% lower y/y.)

The expenditures dataset was positive (y/y) for a fourth straight month in July following over two years of declines. On a two-year-stacked comparison, the declines narrowed again in the month to 5.8%.

Netting the decline in shipments from the increase in expenditures shows actual freight rates were up nearly 8% y/y in July. A mix shift to truckload from less-than-truckload again drove the change to the inferred rate index, the report said.

SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates remain largely flat on a year-over-year comparison. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, dipped 0.6% sequentially but was 2.4% higher y/y. The dataset has been up on a y/y comparison in every month this year. This was the largest y/y gain since September 2022.

The index is “on track for a small increase in 2025.”

“As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious,” the report said. “But the silver lining of lower [commercial] vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market next year.”

Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.

SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections are outperforming prior-year levels but still not signaling a recovery.

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