spot rates

This week, freight markets underwent a surprising rally that saw a wave of volumes sweep across the country.

Domestic manufacturers fail to inspire optimism, since they foresee major headwinds on output in the first half of 2024.

The upcoming months are littered with major holidays during which carriers can leverage seasonal constraints on capacity for higher spot rates.

Outside of the holiday rush periods, the fundamental lack of freight demand will continue to expose the lingering overcapacity in the market.

Given the surplus of available capacity, shippers are more confident in switching to “just-in-time” freight strategies as consumer resilience remains an open question.

By next week, it is likely that actual freight flow will have finally risen on a yearly basis for the first time since May 2022.

Consumer demand during the holiday season is expected to be relatively soft, which should temper expectations for a red-hot peak season in truckload markets.

Perhaps the most pressing question for both freight markets and the broader economy is how the consumer will fare in the coming months.

Rejection rates gathered some promising momentum in the run-up to Labor Day, though these gains are slowly being lost.

After a none-too-brief break, the Pricing Power Index is resuming its regular Friday schedule.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration on Wednesday released parameters on data collection for a new study to determine the impact of detention time on drivers. The Information Collection Request (ICR) was submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review and approval and opened the window for public comments.

Against significant odds, the Federal Reserve might realize its once-unlikely goal of a “soft landing” — that is, taming inflation without also triggering a recession.

Freight volumes continue to trend sideways, which is a positive sign overall as the 15th of July traditionally marks a time for slowing demand in the freight market.

Demand from retail shippers is historically quiet in the period from now until August, after which retailers restock their shelves for the back-to-school season.

Demand from retail shippers is historically quiet in the period from now until August, after which retailers restock their shelves for the back-to-school season.

Maritime’s peak season — which typically ramps up in August and lasts throughout October — is expected by retailers and supply chain professionals to be weaker than it has been in previous years.

Consulting firm Kearney recently released its 34th annual Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) report, “State of Logistics 2023: The Great Reset.” A major theme of the report is the great rebalancing from the carrier-dominated market of the past two years to a shipper-focused one as freight volumes fell against a backdrop of higher truckload capacity. The report notes that total U.S. logistics costs rose 19.6% in 2022 to a record $2.3 trillion or 9.1% of U.S. gross domestic product.

Tender rejections have yet to return to mid-May’s all-time low, but their softness could persist in a trough for the next two quarters.

One last round of bad news to cap this week: China and the U.S. both posted dismal data from their respective industrial economies.

Volumes did see some growth ahead of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday, though not nearly enough to bust out the champagne and sparklers.

On Wednesday, FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller sat down with Zach Strickland, FreightWaves’ head of freight market intelligence, to discuss freight market conditions and expectations.

So as not to bury the lede, this week’s lack of change in the PPI might ultimately prove to be the most exciting stability in quite some time.

Despite expectations for seasonal growth in the second quarter, the health of the American consumer has continued to become more precarious, stirring headwinds for even once-reliable sources of freight.

Volumes are just beginning to tick up at the tail end of April, but freight demand in the quarter has been mostly flat and thus grossly unseasonable.

While ocean carriers are not facing the same risks as their domestic trucking counterparts, given their consolidation and enormous war chests, ocean’s weakness in demand will continue to trickle down into truckload markets.

Despite seeing slight seasonal growth, truckload markets are showing a continued soft patch.

The gap between current levels of freight demand and those of 2019 is narrowing, casting doubt on the market’s ability to sustain growth.

The consumer will be key to resolving the present tension in freight demand’s future, but consumers continue to be predictably unpredictable.

Market conditions will likely become a bit more favorable before they get much worse.

A plan to allow 18-to-20-year-old truck drivers to haul interstate cargo got a sharp rebuttal at the Truckload Carriers Association (TCA) conference by Knight-Swift President and CEO David Jackson. The plan was conceived as a way to address the driver shortage and is strongly supported by the Biden administration and the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Strangely enough, tender volumes are abiding by seasonal trends.

On Tuesday, FreightWaves Research released survey data suggesting declining freight conditions are impacting owner-operators especially hard. An important takeaway is the potential for many more owner-operators to leave the industry if conditions do not improve.

Two container shipping experts give their take on how the hangover after the pandemic boom could play out.

Strangely enough, tender volumes are abiding by seasonal trends. The first quarter of 2022 was unusually active as shippers tried to get ahead of disruptions to capacity, which historically tightens in the spring.

With the inflation-squeezed consumer running through their discretionary budgets, freight demand is in a precarious state.

FreightWaves’ Noi Mahoney reports that, according to CargoNet data, a surge in cargo thefts near the end of 2022 led to an estimated $223 million in goods being stolen across Canada and the U.S. 

Consumers’ appetite for discretionary spending has been usurped in favor of squirreling away income into personal savings.

Volumes have continued their recovery from the winter holiday season with a surge in pent-up freight demand unleashed into the market. Naturally, since last week’s data was affected by holiday noise, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) faces some absurdly easy comps on a weekly basis. Even still, accepted tender volumes remain below their levels of 2021 and ’22 for the time being. 

Volumes have continued their recovery from the winter holiday season with a surge in pent-up freight demand unleashed into the market. Naturally, since last week’s data was affected by holiday noise, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) faces some absurdly easy comps on a weekly basis. Even still, accepted tender volumes remain below their levels of 2021 and ’22 for the time being. 

For all intents and purposes, the month of December has only three weeks of freight activity, as the final week from Christmas to New Year’s is effectively null. In years prior, freight demand has fallen throughout the month before bottoming out in that final week. So far, December looks to be following seasonal trends, which is to say that, while shippers’ activity is winding down, this movement is not alarming by itself. Rather, the gap in freight demand between 2022 and ’21 (or even ’20) is the main symptom of current ailments.

Trans-Pacific spot rates fell first. Trans-Atlantic spot rates and Asia-U.S. contract rates look like they’re next in line.

For all intents and purposes, the month of December has only three weeks of freight activity, as the final week from Christmas to New Year’s is effectively null. In years prior, freight demand has fallen throughout the month before bottoming out in that final week. So far, December looks to be following seasonal trends, which is to say that, while shippers’ activity is winding down, this movement is not alarming by itself. Rather, the gap in freight demand between 2022 and ’21 (or even ’20) is the main symptom of current ailments.

Contrary to popular opinion, December is not a peak season for freight. True, the freight that needs to be moved in this month typically has greater urgency than usual, which does put upward pressure on carrier rates. But peak truckload volumes are largely influenced by maritime imports, which historically peak between July and September.

Historically, November is the month in which maritime imports begin to move inland for their final push before the holiday shopping season. Yet such imports were lost at sea this year, failing to materialize during ocean shippers’ peak season. This one-two punch of weakened import volumes and overstocked retail inventories means that carriers are left with fewer opportunities to source freight.

Ocean carriers have been shielded by lucrative annual contracts with cargo shippers, but contract coverage is starting to crumble.

Historically, November is the month in which maritime imports begin to move inland for their final push before the holiday shopping season. Yet such imports were lost at sea this year, failing to materialize during ocean shippers’ peak season. This one-two punch of weakened import volumes and overstocked retail inventories means that carriers are left with fewer opportunities to source freight.

A recent FreightWaves Research survey found strong consensus among carriers and brokers/3PLs that spot rates are still a few months from hitting bottom, but that they’ll start to climb again in the second half of 2023.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Outbound demand in Denver is swinging up after falling to a two-year low earlier this month, and Salt Lake City has shown consistent headhaul market activity since Labor Day.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Contract rates still face downward pressure, especially for live/live loads.

Hurricane Ian boosted spot rates in the southeast over the past 10 days, but as rejection rates and volumes decline, when will spot rates on a national level take another step lower.

Atlanta is seeing consistent levels of outbound volume, retaining the majority market share with 4.1%. Diesel prices are decreasing at a faster rate than they increased over the summer.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Headhaul markets historically begin to send out more volume in preparation for the holiday peak, but 2022 continues to show different trends.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Contract and spot rates continue their downward trend despite volume levels and rejection rates flattening out…

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

Since the pandemic started, many shippers found their existing contracts unable to ensure carrier compliance. Supply and demand were especially volatile, and so spot rates, which are more sensitive to changing market conditions, handily outpaced contract rates.

In the nine days since July began, OTRI fell 141 basis points (bps) to its lowest level in over two years: 6.7%. In the three days following that bottom, OTRI clawed back 50 bps. At present, however, it seems as though any upward momentum upon which it could have built has been lost.

Volume levels are depressed this week by Monday’s holiday. The national average rate of tender rejections sunk below 7% late in the week, but linehaul spot rates…

Volume levels have made a final push before the second quarter ends. The national rejection rate has recovered from its earlier dip below 8%…

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 8%…

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

Auction prices for used trucks are dropping as more equipment shows up amid cooling spot freight demand.

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

“The cost of trucking is dramatically going down and we’re hitting a recession that is not going to get any better. It’s surprising how many shippers are running annual bids when they should be running three-month bid cycles on almost all of their lanes,” said Emerge founder and CEO Andrew Leto.

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

Volume levels have restarted their decline, as have spot rates. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller analyzes the impact of rising diesel costs on the spot market and the trucking industry.

Volume levels have restarted the decline after recovering after Easter Weekend. The national rejection rate has fallen below 9%…

“Higher shipping costs hit prices of imported goods at the dock within two months and quickly pass through to producer prices — many of whom rely on imported inputs to manufacture their goods,” IMF researchers wrote.

Tender volumes and tender rejection rates are both on a rapid decline, signaling trouble for the truckload market. Carriers and shippers alike will need to…

Heavily contracted carriers are not feeling the full brunt of the truckload market easing just yet, but there is still a lot to be determined about what happens next.

Spot rates continue the rapid descent as truckload capacity continues to loosen rapidly. At the same time, accepted tender volumes turn…

On its first-quarter call with analysts, management from J.B. Hunt said demand indications from customers have been strong. The path is likely not as easy for smaller players in the space.

Tender rejection rates are rapidly headed toward single digits, causing spot rates to resemble a black diamond slope rather than the bunny…

Tender volumes and tender rejection rates are both on a rapid decline, signaling trouble for the truckload market. Carriers and shippers alike will need to…

Tender volumes and tender rejection rates are both on a rapid decline, signaling trouble for the truckload market. Carriers and shippers alike will need to…

Both tender volumes and tender rejection rates take a breather over the past week. It’s too early to be called a trend but definitely…

Both tender volumes and tender rejection rates take a breather over the past week. It’s too early to be called a trend but definitely…

Both tender volumes and tender rejection rates take a breather over the past week. It’s too early to be called a trend but definitely…

Tender volumes recover most of last week’s decline while rejection rates continue their slow downward trend despite contract rate increases…

Tender volumes take a February nap, sliding 4% over the past week while rejection rates were flat despite weather affecting certain markets..

Tender volumes continue to outperform year-ago levels. Rejection rates have declined throughout the past week as carriers return to major…

“Everything we have sails. Every box we have we try to move,” says Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen.

Tender volumes continue to outperform year-ago levels. Rejection rates have declined throughout the past week as carriers return to major…

Tender volumes continue to outperform year-ago levels. Rejection rates have declined throughout the past week as carriers return to major…

Shippers may benefit from limiting the number of partners they work with in a loose market, but this exclusionary approach has become a serious — and seriously expensive — problem as capacity has tightened and rates have climbed to record highs.

Tender volumes continue to outperform year-ago levels. Rejection rates have declined throughout the past week as carriers return to major…

Tender volumes continue to outperform year-ago levels. Rejection rates are continuing to rise in a unseasonable pattern placing pressure…

Learn about Automating the Spot Quote Process for Full Truckload Brokers