An unseasonable upward trend in truckload tender volumes is giving domestic transportation providers the potential inflection point they have waiting for.
The less-than-truckload sector has been disrupted by a very public dispute between Yellow and the Teamsters. Rates have already seemingly responded and may continue to see support.
There are some positive signs that the freight market has cleared most of the post-pandemic rubble, but full recovery is still a ways off.
If the spread between contract and spot rates narrows, capacity will become increasingly inconsistent in the second half of the year.
Underlying shifts in domestic shipping are showing up in the spot market.
There has definitely been a sustainable shift in how freight is distributed domestically.
The jury is still out on whether truckload demand has hit the floor.
Companies are still trying to get their margins back to pre-pandemic levels with price increases on finished goods. This will continue to put freight demand at risk in the second half of the year.
Flatbed capacity tends to be as erratic as its demand, making it harder to secure in general.
After over a year of declining volumes and rates, trucking spot rates have leveled and demand has just witnessed an unseasonable jump.
The pandemic may have exposed long-term weakness to the railroads’ intermodal growth plans.
Southern California markets were flush with transportation activity during the pandemic. That has eroded and then some. This has not only left transportation networks exposed operationally but also created pricing gaps.
What do historically low rejection rates mean for the truckload industry?
Perhaps the biggest question of 2023 for domestic trucking is when will the surplus of capacity fade to a point that prices stop falling. One data point provides deeper insight than simply a count of drivers or tractors.
Lunar New Year normally brings a slow shipping period for imports, but the lead-in period was also lackluster. With many companies calling for a return to seasonal patterns later in the year, just how close are we to that being a reality?
Many people get hung up on trying to figure out how much capacity is readily available in trucking when they should be more focused on monitoring demand trends.
Are supply chains already manifesting significant changes in domestic transportation patterns?
What conclusions can we draw from the relationship between imports and trucking?
Truckload carriers nearly auto-accepted load requests during the holidays. While this may look like a blessing to shippers, the implications are not great.
Truckload carriers are providing the best contract compliance since COVID started during a traditionally chaotic time. What does this mean for 2023?
Normally one of the softest regions for truckload activity in the U.S., the Pacific Northwest has become the tightest in the nation.
Fuel costs are a huge cost component of operating a trucking business. Small operators are at a significant disadvantage in the current market thanks not only to declining demand but fuel price volatility.
Transportation demand continues to erode heading into the slowest months of the year. Could this be the bottom?
The automotive industry has been going strong while other sectors of the economy are slowing. What are some of the reasons for this and how long will it last?
FreightWaves new spot rate forecast supports a slow start to trucking’s peak season.
Truckload contract rates have slowed their descent after a quick drop in August. What should we make of this as demand continues to ease?
The ghost of Paul Volcker is stalking truckload carriers as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell looks to his mentor’s 40-year-old strategy to quell inflation. The lagging impacts from the recent interest rate hikes will inevitably erode demand several months into the future.
Outbound truckload tender volumes spiked this week out of Southern California, while intermodal volumes dipped due to a brief embargo. Could this be a result of shippers preparing for a potential strike?
Shippers may have had a little more success with contracted carriers in May, but it came at a high cost.
Many carriers expanded their fleets after the 2018 freight boom and were rewarded with an extremely challenging oversupplied market in 2019. The current pattern looks eerily similar to early 2018, but are they comparable?
Containers have been in short supply, exacerbated by gross trade imbalances between the U.S. and China. The surging flow of empties moving back to the West Coast implies the ships won’t be slowing anytime soon.
One of the results of the 2017-18 freight market boom was an increase in the cost of operating that held over into a slower 2019 when capacity became abundant. Costs are on the rise once again as carriers struggle to find drivers to capture market share.
Imports have fueled the domestic freight economy over the past year. That growth continues out of the traditional peak season with shippers booking maritime capacity in April. Could this translate to a record summer for trucking?
The relationship between personal consumption and trucking demand has strengthened even further as companies struggle to maintain inventory. This suggests a very active spring and summer for transportation providers.
Transportation rates continue to climb while service is at an all-time low. Shippers will have to be aggressive in devising new strategies to keep costs under control.
Import volumes are growing rapidly into secondary ports as shippers scramble to build inventory. What are some of the short- and long-term implications to domestic transportation providers?
Intermodal shipping is dominated by the largest shippers in the U.S. and operates on a more static network, which gains higher cost efficiency than trucking over longer-mileage runs.
Reefer capacity has tightened to all-time levels, pushing spot rates for produce moves to seasonal peaks ahead of schedule.
The underlying fundamentals of the market are showing signs of moving slowly back toward a more stable scenario and spot rates may be unable to paint the full picture.
The latest round of winter weather hit transportation hard. How does this compare to other events?
The import boom appears far from over, and it will have implications long after this wave of unprecedented orders subsides.
Companies are paying significantly more for transportation than they were a year ago with many contracts yet to be implemented.
Although many questions remain for trucking in 2021, flatbed appears to be poised for a much stronger year.
Freight volumes have exploded out of southern California over the past two years. Is this pattern sustainable?
Consumer spending on goods drove the majority of the freight boom in 2020. Will this trend last in 2021?
Class 8 truck orders are surging signaling carriers are once again willing to invest in their fleets. Does this mean another overcorrection of capacity is in store?
Imports continue to pile up as shippers and carriers take time for the holidays. They may come back to a mess.
Transportation providers may spend January unclogging supply chains as warehouse capacity has become a precious commodity thanks to the continued influx of imports.
Spot rates continued to increase after the holiday period ended even as capacity returned to the market according to the Outbound Tender Reject Index.
Cold chain distribution shifts following the pandemic along with a much smaller supply of available base capacity has made the reefer carrier a much more valuable commodity this year.
Capacity is historically tight in trucking, pushing spot rates and profit margins higher. How much of this momentum will carriers be able to maintain?
Temperature-controlled equipment rates are already breaking records, could the vaccine distribution push them higher?
Trucking and rail volumes remain elevated while the imports fade. Is this is beginning of the end of the 2020 freight boom?
Record trucking volumes along with shrinking refinery production could make fuel prices an overlooked threat to carrier margins and shipping costs into 2021.
Import volumes continue to fuel the surface transportation boom. Will it last into 2021?
Reefer carrier revenues are expanding rapidly as capacity tightens faster for the temperature-controlled segment of trucking.
Carriers are investing in new trailers over tractors during the most recent freight boom. What does this mean for capacity in the future?
Freight volumes are not the only thing putting pressure on capacity.
Trucking spot rates are averaging well over what they were a year ago implying many shippers will see rates increase next year. How much will it be?
Transportation costs are hitting record levels as companies struggle to grab capacity amidst an unusually early peak season.
Shippers are willing to pay more to put freight on the rail just to get it moving out of Los Angeles.
International import bookings signal continued strength in the domestic freight market.
As trucking capacity tightens and spot rates rise, driver turnover increases. Are some of them leaving the industry for good?
Hurricane Laura hit at a time when trucking capacity is unusually tight, a fact that may hinder the recovery efforts.
Freight is getting crammed into the U.S. West Coast as fast as carriers can pick it up. How long will it last?
The last time capacity tightened to this level, capacity flooded the trucking space. Will the same outcome occur in 2020?
Wait times have fallen as as shippers compete for capacity. What is the connection between capacity and detention?
Volumes have recovered faster than many expected leading to many transportation companies posting earnings beats in Q2. There are no signs of slowing into August.
Chart of the Week: Total Rail Carloads, Chemical Rail Carloads, Motor Vehicle Rail Carloads – USA SONAR: RTOTC.USA, RTOCH.USA, RTOMV.USA The latest rail carload data is showing that the industrial side of the economy, which is the backbone for a large amount of freight movement in the U.S., has finally started to recover after hovering on the […]
Companies are cramming warehouses full of freight as they change their supply chains to better suit the post COVID-19 world. Trucking capacity tightens as a result.
The erratic nature of the economic recovery has dramatically changed shipping behavior, which has strained carrier networks.
Capacity is almost as tight as it was during the panic buying inspired March. Could it get tighter?
Southern California has become the hot spot for freight in the post COVID-19 freight market. Could it be the region to tell us what’s next?
A decline in contract rates that were implemented prior to the COVID-19 outbreak may make this year tighter for carriers.
A lot of the recent struggles for carriers originated in what many consider to be the most profitable year.
Produce season has arrived, pushing rates higher than 2019 in many areas. Will this impact the rest of the country’s capacity?
Freight moving long distances in May might lead to a strong summer peak.
Imports of nondurable goods are outperforming durable goods imports this month, which may indicate warehouses are full of their durable counterparts due to lack of demand.
Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Volume Index– USA SONAR: OTVI.USA After experiencing one of the most volatile periods in history over the past two months, freight market volumes have recovered to February levels in the past week. February is not a great month for freight traditionally speaking but considering a month ago volumes were running 15-20% […]
Reefer capacity has started to show early signs of tightening after experiencing the loosest conditions in years in April. Will van capacity follow suit?
Chinese imports have fully recovered. Does this mean the domestic trucking market will see a similar outcome?
Many expected a worse outcome for carriers in March as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak. Ironically, the pandemic may have padded some 1Q results.
Carriers are getting more notice to pick up loads. Is this a result of Amazon relaxing their service expectations?
The maritime shipping companies have been able to increase their rates amidst the COVID-19 induced shut down. Is this a sign of things to come for domestic carriers?
Even as freight volumes surged to record levels in March, drivers spent less time driving.
Air cargo rates spike in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Medical supplies are in high demand while much of the air capacity is grounded.
Trucking capacity is the tightest it has been in 17 months thanks to the surging volumes, but all signs point to this being a short-lived event.
Import volumes are showing the first signs of recovery since the initial decline in early February.
Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA People have been clearing store shelves in parts of the country as if they were preparing for a zombie apocalypse this past week. This mass purchasing—or threat thereof—has spiked trucking volumes in the U.S. as the national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) increased […]
Container shipping rates from China to the U.S. west coast and international intermodal volume out of the L.A. port complex are both at or below last year’s seasonally-weak Chinese New Year Period. Extended factory shutdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus may inhibit a March or April rebound.
Not only were volumes lower in 2019, but they traveled less miles, which compounded the impact of oversupply. Volumes have not recovered, but something else has changed that may help carriers this year.
Transport earnings were rough but may have bottomed.
Diesel costs were supposed to make 2020 more difficult for struggling carriers, but wholesale fuel prices have fallen rapidly, which should help carriers in the slow season.
The coronavirus is having a far-reaching impact across the globe. The timing may make things worse for domestic trucking.
Reefer volumes have broken out this winter as dry van demand fades. Does this mean the sector is in for a strong recovery in 2020?
New fleet growth is slowing while used truck prices collapse. Is this the first sign of contracting trucking capacity?
California’s AB5 has caused significant disruption prior to the planned enforcement period. Has there been a measurable impact to the supply of carriers in the state?
Insurance premiums are a growing concern in the trucking industry, even as statistics show reduced incidents. What is driving the soaring insurance costs?
Lead times fell throughout 2019 as shippers became accustomed to excessive capacity.
The truckload sector has had a breakout December thanks to a booming holiday peak. Is this a signal of a long-term shift to the over-supplied freight market?
